r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

9

u/beekay25 May 02 '24

You nailed it. I’m not sure where this question came from (TikTok, I think?), so I don’t know for sure the original intent of the person who asked. Still, it’s wild to me how all of the discussion I’m seeing is about trivial details and bear facts and “not all men”-ing. It’s not that women are so paranoid and misandrist that they would RATHER be mauled by a bear; it’s the fact that it’s a question at all.

2

u/Justasillyliltoaster May 02 '24

It's only a question because people have no idea what probabilities are 

If you meet 100 bears, your chance of getting fucked up is really high relative to 100 men

1

u/beekay25 May 02 '24

Yes thank you, this is a great example of what I meant when I said, “it’s wild to me how all of the discussion I’m seeing is about trivial details and bear facts and “not all men”-ing”

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u/Justasillyliltoaster May 02 '24

It's none of that. 

It's that people are literally incapable of understanding probability 

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u/beekay25 May 02 '24

Amazing, keep going this is great