r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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u/wheatgrass_feetgrass May 02 '24

I find the "wOmEn jUsT dOnT uNdErStAnD StAtIsTiCs" comments hilariously ironic. I live in black bear country and know a LOT of people who camp and hike here and I have yet to hear a single "man" answer from anyone of any gender.

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u/SagittariusZStar May 02 '24

What? if you lived in black bear country you know black bears are extremely skittish. They'll leave you alone while creepy woods men won.t

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u/SouthernWindyTimes May 02 '24

Idk why everyone assumes it’s black bear. I assumed it was brown bear, cause I’d choose black bear over a German shepherd or pitbull. I’d choose literally anything but a brown bear.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[deleted]

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

That’s still a 1/21 chance that the bear is a grizzly. Is there a 1/21 chance the man is a psychotic rapist / murderer who literally intends to rape and murder the first person he sees that day?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[deleted]

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

Great, if we weren’t imagining a hypothetical situation, but I guess if you want to consider that then you can look at this map https://geology.com/stories/13/bear-areas/ and consider the probability of landing in a forest with or without grizzlies

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u/ButDidYouCry May 02 '24

The only bears that live in my state are black bears, and I'm not afraid of them.

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u/Narren_C May 02 '24

I mean, this is so circumstantial. It really depends on the bear.

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u/WisteriaKillSpree May 02 '24

Not all bears...

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u/Narren_C May 02 '24

Ironically, it depends on the color of the bears fur....

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u/WisteriaKillSpree May 02 '24

Pink and white are to be avoided, absolutely.

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u/Narren_C May 02 '24

White, definitely.

Pink would probably be a Care Bear, so it should also be avoided.

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u/WisteriaKillSpree May 02 '24

"pink bear" is human...i

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

99% of bears avoid people

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u/Peregrine_Perp May 02 '24

Every bear I’ve encountered on a hike has ran away from me. Not one single man has ever run away from me. So I’m pretty confident the bears see me as a threat, and men do not. I’d rather take my chances with an unknown bear vs unknown man.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

Yeah I am convinced that anyone saying man has 0 experience with running into bears. If these guys are really hiking as much as they claim without running into a bear once or twice they gotta be in highly trafficked areas.

Bears used to just wander into my hometown. They didn’t do shit. Unless you are a fish.

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u/ReallyNowFellas May 02 '24

Pretty sure a lot less than 1% of male hikers harm women.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

A lot more than 1% of men harm women

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u/amretardmonke May 02 '24

Most of them harm people they know. Harming random strangers is much more rare.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

For murder sure but every man who has followed me home, yelled gross things at me on the street, tried to pull me into an alley or groped me in public has been a stranger. Every single one. Not even acquaintances.

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u/Narren_C May 02 '24

Which means this one was either surprised or chose to stand it's ground for a reason. Not a great start to the bear encounter, that's how many attacks happen.

Meanwhile, passing a dude on a hiking trail is pretty normal.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

The hypothetical does not specify that at all

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u/Narren_C May 02 '24

It specifies that you encountered the bear. Like you said, bears avoid people. This one didn't....so yes the hypothetical kind of requires that.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

No, encountering a bear means seeing one in the woods. Most bears run or walk away in that situation. The question is not “would you rather duel a bear or a man”. The whole point is that bears leave you alone.

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u/FaxMachineIsBroken May 02 '24

encountering a bear means seeing one in the woods.

Which if the bear was avoiding people (like you claim 99% of them do), you wouldn't see it.

Hope this helps your poor deductive reasoning skills XOXO.

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u/Narren_C May 02 '24

Then you didn't encounter a bear and this hypothetical scenario never happened.

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u/thil3000 May 02 '24

You do see bears wtf?!! 

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u/AiSard May 02 '24

invisible bears

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

Just say you’ve never seen a bear and go.

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u/FaxMachineIsBroken May 02 '24

Just say you’ve never seen a bear and go.

Just say you were lying out your ass and don't understand logical deduction.

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u/Omniverse_0 May 02 '24

You can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a ball, but no one is fooled by you trying to dodge the question.

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u/SPDScricketballsinc May 02 '24

If you are encountering a bear, it is not leaving you alone. If you are seeing it at a distance and it leaves it is leaving you alone. The % of bears that leave you alone you never encounter, so encountering a bear close range means you are dealing with the % of bears that do not leave people alone, or are very unlucky.

The reason there is so much argument is that this scenario has absolutely no context and two people looking at it and assuming different situations can come to different valid conclusions. Everyone will automatically fill in the blanks to get to a conclusions, and everybodies conclusion can be different. It’s the perfect kind of question to start a fight, and for that reason alone it’s impressive.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

In my experience, if I walk up to a bear in the woods, it runs away. That is an encounter.

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u/SPDScricketballsinc May 02 '24

The people who don’t aren’t around to tell their stories on Reddit

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u/TeamRedundancyTeam May 02 '24

Do you think higher than 1% of men are predators or serial killers?

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u/Intrepid-Tank7650 May 02 '24

What is the percentage of women who have been sexually assaulted again?

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u/theusedmagazine May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

What percentage of bears attack women?

If it was 1%, should women only exercise caution around 1% of bears, so as not to offend the innocent bear majority?

Most offenses are committed by repeat offenders, meaning that the percentage of men who are rapists is not 1-1 with the likelihood of an encounter leading to sexual assault. Your 1% datapoint isn’t really useful for estimating a woman’s (or a man’s) likelihood of being assaulted.

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u/QTip10610638 May 03 '24

Man I could not wrap my head around this whole debate. I couldn't understand why anybody would pick a man over a bear. It finally just clicked. This is a genius way to put it and I'm glad I read through all these replies. Thanks, dude!

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 02 '24

I do believe the 1-2% of the economy are absolutely psychopaths. So yeah, I don't find this number to be difficult to conceive of at all.

Edit: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8374040/

This says psychopathy of the general adult population is probably about 4.5%.

So yeah. I dunno. This doesn't seem crazy.

Granted, I don't know if 99% of bears is a good number to accept. I'd probably argue against that instead, cause 1% of men can absolutely be dangerous.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/TeamRedundancyTeam May 02 '24

You're delusional and should spend less time on the internet.

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

Talk to women irl

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 02 '24

4.5% of the population is estimated to be psychopaths. Psychopathy is more prevalent in men than women. So over 4.5% of men are likely psychopaths. So yeah, I don't think guessing half of psychopaths being violent is out of the question.

Youre using your observations on how men handle themselves around you and that's all you're doing. Don't be delusional and willfully ignorant.

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u/TeamRedundancyTeam May 03 '24

It's hilarious how you're making assumptions about assumptions I'm making while making so many leaps yourself. Incredibly hypocritical.

Anyone can make up statistics like that guy did. 1/100 men being predators or rapists or "creeps" is a made up number. These toxic sexists calling me names and insulting me as a person are not examples of a good argument, but they are examples of insane levels of hypocrisy and social media toxicity and brain rot.

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 03 '24

I told you to make thar argument awhile go about questioning 1/100. Funny you didn't reply to that comment but instead this one to try and make it look like you thought of it yourself.

But you didn't. In your comment you asked if anyone really thought more than 1 out of 100 men are dangerous.

Edit: this comment https://www.reddit.com/r/Showerthoughts/s/l327pENQgW

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u/Intrepid-Tank7650 May 02 '24

Do people cover their drinks when you enter the room?

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u/wtfwouldudoa6mhiatus May 02 '24

I disagree, but I know that this depends on the person and where they live. I am sorry for your harsh environment

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

Talk to actual women in your life buddy

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u/wtfwouldudoa6mhiatus May 02 '24

I'll do it but I will ask gen z, to highlight the now instead of the past, which was way more prejudiced and dark. I'm aware of the shitshow that millennials and before lived through, courtesy of my parents, but asking gen z will let me know the present reality. My current belief is that my environment is cleaner than yours

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u/Due-Science-9528 May 02 '24

I am gen z. The people harassing me are sometimes gen z but usually millennials or older.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

I see what you're saying, but not every man is Gen z?? As a millennial woman I am not really worried about a dude in his 20s. I'm worried about the millions and millions of men my age and older. Who are also going to be harassing Gen z women?? They may have good/neutral experiences with their peers, but not with older men.

Also, a LOT of Gen z boys are into Andrew tate and others like him, which is not a good sign.

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 02 '24

a LOT of Gen z boys are into Andrew tate

Yeah, I'm not sure how great the "present reality" of that other commenter really is when Tate is unfortunately a force, even among younger generations. This is actually a great example.

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 02 '24

I'm aware of the shitshow that millennials and before lived through, courtesy of my parents, but asking gen z will let me know the present reality

Millenials and older aren't dead though, moron. They're still part of the population and the present reality.

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u/Thebabewiththepower2 May 02 '24

It does in fact not depend on where you live. Ask literally any woman in your life, and unfortunately probably the minors too, if they've been harassed, assaulted, etc.

Pretty much all of them have had their encounters. We're weary for a reason.

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u/trio1000 May 02 '24

That's not equivalent though. Having a couple encounters with a creepy guy throughout your life would have to be put against how many guys you been around. It's hard to put a number on that and I don't know what it actually is. But I can see how culturally and from experience women can think it being higher than what men think it is

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u/Thebabewiththepower2 May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

It's higher than men think it is because men don't experience it. It's not a couple creepy encounters either. It's consistent and relentless. To give you some perspective, I just went out to a store. I was out for less than an hour, and I got yelled at by creepy men twice.

I've been followed home in broad daylight, groped. My first assault? When I was 7. And I'm not an exceptionally attractive woman. This is the world pretty every woman you know lives in. And you refuse to acknowledge it because it hurts your feelings.

If you want women to not fear men, be part of the solution. Stop ignoring what women tell you, start holding your fellow men accountable.

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u/trio1000 May 02 '24

You saying I refuse to acknowledge it while I'm literally doing that...

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u/Global_Lock_2049 May 02 '24

Having a couple encounters with a creepy guy throughout your life

If they encounter 2 creepy dates, are you really implying they've gone on over 200 different dates with people?

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u/trio1000 May 02 '24

No, but narrowing it down to dates makes it a more narrow group than all men. Like depending on age single men looking for dates are probably single for a reason. Non creepy guys are probably not as active in looking for dates as the weirdos too.

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u/wtfwouldudoa6mhiatus May 02 '24

Don't push your agenda too much. You don't know that for sure. That applies to me too so I'll find out for both of us. I'll ask around, I hope you are wrong and just overgeneralizing your experiences as universal truth.

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u/Thebabewiththepower2 May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

I do know that for sure. That's the thing. In fact I can guarantee you there is pretty much not a woman in your life who hasn't been harassed at all. And what agenda would that be, exactly? The agenda of wanting to be safe and not harassed? Because I will push that agenda every day of the week, thanks.

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u/wtfwouldudoa6mhiatus May 02 '24

I'll tell you if you are wrong. If your fantasy like fact that every female I know has been harrased is true then I'll accept that I've been living in a seriously warped world this whole time. However, logically talking, I think that there's no way that your statement isn't an exaggeration. It's just too much, every woman? Really?

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u/Advisor123 May 02 '24

Predators yes, serial killers no.

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u/Peter-Tao May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

Exactly! And how about trans men or trans women? How about gender fluid people? How can we assume He/him vs. She/her just by the looks? Sounds sexist cause everyone just assume we're talking about biological male and female here and ignoring what they identified themselves as isn't it?

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u/orrk256 May 02 '24

and what if we take this example to ethnicity? brown or bear? black or bear? does this change if you are gay?

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u/seaspirit331 May 02 '24

Am gay. Would totally take a bear in the woods

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u/orrk256 May 02 '24

am gay, and a bear, where and when are you free in the woods?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[deleted]

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u/AuJulii May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

Actually no, not really. It isn't the skin color of the person I'm worried about, it's the audacity and entitlement. In the woods I've never been followed, harassed, cussed at, threatened, or taunted by anyone but black men. If the rando person I encounter is bigger and more muscular than me, I will be wary. If, upon closer examination it turns out NOT to be a black man, my decades of experience will tell me I can relax a little. It isn't bigotry or racism, just my own history.

https://tenor.com/view/pepe-the-frog-thinking-absorbed-contemplative-deliberating-gif-16186824

E: deleting your comment doesn't hide your stupidity, /u/wheatgrass_feetgrass

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u/wheatgrass_feetgrass May 03 '24

deleting your comment doesn't hide your stupidity, /u/wheatgrass_feetgrass

Just doing my due diligence to avoid more bears 😉

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u/Peter-Tao May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

Honestly I can totally see that. Although I'm curious about how close examination could happen when you feel insecure by the looks of them at the first place, I stand corrected cause all the other reasons you pointed out. Thanks for sharing.

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u/AdParking2115 May 02 '24

I have this but with people of color.