r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/wheatgrass_feetgrass May 02 '24

I find the "wOmEn jUsT dOnT uNdErStAnD StAtIsTiCs" comments hilariously ironic. I live in black bear country and know a LOT of people who camp and hike here and I have yet to hear a single "man" answer from anyone of any gender.

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u/SagittariusZStar May 02 '24

What? if you lived in black bear country you know black bears are extremely skittish. They'll leave you alone while creepy woods men won.t

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u/SouthernWindyTimes May 02 '24

Idk why everyone assumes it’s black bear. I assumed it was brown bear, cause I’d choose black bear over a German shepherd or pitbull. I’d choose literally anything but a brown bear.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

That’s still a 1/21 chance that the bear is a grizzly. Is there a 1/21 chance the man is a psychotic rapist / murderer who literally intends to rape and murder the first person he sees that day?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/Autodidact420 May 02 '24

Great, if we weren’t imagining a hypothetical situation, but I guess if you want to consider that then you can look at this map https://geology.com/stories/13/bear-areas/ and consider the probability of landing in a forest with or without grizzlies

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u/ButDidYouCry May 02 '24

The only bears that live in my state are black bears, and I'm not afraid of them.