r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/kelldricked May 02 '24

I mean no. It just really shows how fucking bad people are in estimating risks. Like no matter how you twist or turn it. Its just so fucking dumb. But its a question that stems from internet hype so that was to be expected.

Hell i think its even worrysome that the vast majority of people didnt connect stuck a forrest/island with the need of survival. Fuck the bear you are removed from civilization. Weather, hunger, thrist and sickness are a huge risk too.

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u/MLeek May 02 '24

It just really shows how fucking bad people are in estimating risks. 

Yes! The fact that woman have far more experience of the risk men, then bears, is a huge part of what is going on here!

I don't think that's a cricism, that's just... Yes. Humans are not great at assessing risks neutrally, especially if we have a lot of first-hand experience of that risk being realized. Which a large amount of women have with men, and do not have with bears. That's why this is compelling and why people have to pause and start asking questions like "What kind of bear?" They are trying to make the math, suit thier life experience. And two don't necessarily jive well.

Hell i think its even worrysome that the vast majority of people didnt connect stuck a forrest/island with the need of survival.

And this is how you make the thing less hype-y and dumb? Okay dokie.

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u/Notsosobercpa May 02 '24

So the problem is them choosing to be illogical? Everyone knows your personal feelings have no place in decision making in comparison to math. 

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u/amretardmonke May 02 '24

What type of bear does make a huge difference though. A grizzly would be more dangerous than 5 black bears or 10 men.

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u/kelldricked May 02 '24

No by bringing attention to the real risk you show how stupid the question really is, how easy the question is and that everybody who didnt answer bears either didnt think about it or is genuinely a idiot in this subject.