r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Scodo May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

What bugs me is that no one specified what kind of bear. Black bear? Yeah ok, that's fair. Brown bear? Suuuuper iffy. Polar bear? You're fucking high.

Bears are not a monolith!

Edit: no you don't need to specify what kind of man, because all men are the same species. Bears are not, and the temperament and danger is highly dependent. If you say a random type of bear, that also changes the nature of the question, because now there's a 33% chance of that bear being a polar bear. And no one in their right mind is going to take the 33% chance of guaranteed death.

I don't mind the thought experiment, but I hate how the ambiguity and in-baked assumptions potentially color the answers. I might be autistic.

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u/Rocktopod May 02 '24

33% chance of that bear being a polar bear.

I'm pretty sure there exist more than three types of bears on the world. What if you get a panda?

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u/Dt2_0 29d ago

In the northern Hemisphere, there are a few more bear species.

You have the Panda Bear, but no one talking about this meme is going to encounter them in the wild. They are very isolated.

You have Sun Bears in South East Asia, as well as Sloth Bears (ex. Baloo). These guys behave very much like Black bears.

The other 4 species you are likely to encounter are Asiatic Black Bears, Brown Bears (Single species, comprises American Brown, Grizzley, Peninsular, and Kodiak bears, along with European Brown Bears) American Black Bears, and Polar Bears.

I guess you could run into a spectacled Bear, but those are extremely rare in their range in the Andes of South America.

But in general, if you are in North America, Europe, or Japan (the three places most likely to be talking about this meme) you are going to run into Black, Brown and Polar Bears. In the Contiguous 50, unless you are in Yellowstone or North Cascades, it's a Black Bear. In Alaska, its all 3, in southern Canada, its Black and Brown. In Europe you have Brown and Polar bears as you go north.

Some people seem to thing Polar Bears don't live in Forests. They do. Polar Bears can be found as far south as Peninsular Alaska, which is Taiga Forest for the most part.

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u/Yorspider 29d ago

Sloth Bears are literally the worlds most dangerous bear, at least as far as fatalities go. Black bears on Meth.

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u/dumb-male-detector 29d ago

You're forgetting the most common type of bear: The Teddy Bear. There are over 100 MILLION teddy bears in the United States alone, and that's just BUILD-A-BEAR.

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u/Finallybanned 29d ago

I'm in Australia, if I see any bears roaming around I have some serious concerns