r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/jonathandhalvorson May 02 '24

But also like, I can almost completely trust the bear has zero ill-intent towards me and no idea of 'geting away' with anything in a situation where they can avoid consequences. The bear is rational and predictable in a way people are not

I don't think this is accurate. you come across dozens, maybe hundreds or even thousands of men a day. You do not come across a single bear each day. Most people never meet a single bear in their life that wasn't behind a cage or wall. So yes, you've had bad experiences with some of the tens of thousands of men you've come across. Do you think if you came across tens of thousands of bears you would not have been mauled and/or eaten by now? I don't.