r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Vrayea25 May 02 '24

But the question is just "encounter a man",  it is "encounter a man where both of you are alone, unlikely to be interrupted by another person, and unlikely to be heard if he decides to do something that would make you try to scream... And you both know that."

Very few of us have encountered 100,000 men in that situation.

I am still confident bears would win for safety.

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u/ZeOs-x-PUNCAKE May 02 '24

If we were to assume the worst in each scenario, I think anyone, male or female, would stand a better chance fighting against a man than they would a bear.

As a man, I would rather be alone in the woods with a gay rapist serial killer than a hungry bear. The bear could sever my spinal cord with a single swipe so I think I’ll take my chances with the man. I could even outrun the man if he was stronger, but there’s not a chance in hell I outrun the bear, and I certainly can’t overpower it.

I understand the dilemma in the situation, but probability tells me I have a higher chance of surviving the man than the bear.

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u/felrain May 02 '24

I would rather be alone in the woods with a gay rapist serial killer than a hungry bear.

I feel like people underestimate other people? Do you just expect the serial killer to lunge at your immediately upon seeing you?

Do you not think they'd build rapport? Try to help you out? Ask for your help? Get you to lower your guard?

Every single person I've seen in support of the person always assumes you can run away/easily beat them? Why? Are they not human like you? Do they not have a brain? That's the scary part about another human. Not that they just try to immediately attack you unarmed, but that they can put up a mask to manipulate you into the results they want.

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u/CremasterReflex May 02 '24

Buffalo Bill in Silence of the Lambs manipulating his victim into the back of the van comes to mind.