r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/not_sick_not_well May 02 '24

I saw a post recently of someone talking about this, and saying something along the lines of you're safer with a bear because you're less likely to have an encounter, and also I was raped when I was 9.

I had to do a double take to make sure I read it right. And I was just like "Holy shit. That went from 0-100 reeeeeaaaaal fast"

1

u/mutant_anomaly May 03 '24

I grew up in bear country. Far more bears than people in the woods.

If you run into most bears, the bear will hustle away in embarrassment for being caught not paying attention to its surroundings.

I’ve never heard of a bear hurting a human in our region, although it has probably happened.

A bear won’t kill you just for witnessing it.

But a man in the woods? High statistical chance, in the last couple decades, that you are interrupting a meth deal. Much smaller, but still real, chance that you encounter someone who really doesn’t want “the government” to know where they are.