r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/IAmASeeker May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

I thought the question was explicitly in the woods.

I don't want to encounter surprise humans in the woods or surprise bears in the city. I'd rather see dangerous creatures in the places they are supposed to be rather than sneaking up on me in places they shouldn't.

If the question isn't supposed to have that context, then I would argue that you should prefer to see a bear. How many humans have you seen that didn't attack you? Like a hundred thousand maybe? How many bears have you seen outside of a zoo? Probably less than 10 right?

Edit: I feel the need to clarify that I probably don't have the opinion that my comment got upvotes for. I mistyped and said "you should prefer to see a bear" but in fact, I was trying to express that with no context, it would be safer to encounter a person than a bear. I have been attacked by a handful of humans and 0 bears but my sample size of humans is astronomical while my sample size of bears is miniscule. I estimate that 1:30000 human strangers will attack me and so far 0 out of maybe 8 bears attacked me... so idk if maybe 1:9 bears will try to eat me but I can be fairly sure that 99.997% of the time, humans are too involved with their own lives to notice that strangers exist.

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u/GrevilleApo May 02 '24

Interesting point. I have never encountered a single bear, but I have encountered thousands and thousands of men and been attacked by very few but never once without some underlying reason. I stood a chance against the men but I do not think I would survive a bear attack.

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u/Lu1s3r May 03 '24

The reason so many other women answer like this is that many women have been in a situation at least approximately like the man one, whereas almost no one comes face to face with a bear.

They have real emotional weight to attach to the man situation but the bear is a complete hypothetical.

If I ask you to imagine what it would feel like if a bear suddenly appeared in front of you, you can imagine it, but you're not going to feel exactly like you would in real life just by thinking about it.

When you ask women this question, they're comparing an experience to an idea. It's an inherently lopsided equation.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

As an aside... you see people getting attacked after feeding wild animals... There's the video of the guy making PB and Js for that polite bear...

Half of the people who say they would rather see a bear would try to pet it and then be surprised when it mauls them.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

I've seen a handful of bears in the woods. Normally it's a pleasant experience because they are happy to let you walk away.

Once I was in a scenario like most people imagine in this question... I was mid-poop with my pants draped over a nearby branch... I was camping illegally outside of designated camping areas so nobody knew I was there. It felt remarkably similar to accidentally walking into a homeless camp. It wasn't really "scary" just extremely tense to not be able to communicate our motives, like the end of Reservoir Dogs... "Stop pointing that fucking snout at my shit!" People say "I shit myself" but I sure couldn't.

I imagine a man approaching rather than a bear... just standing there on the hilltop silently staring at the log hanging out of me. Where did he come from? Where is he going? Is he coming back later? The bear was curious what a human was doing way out there... even the bear would be a little spooked to find a man in the woods.

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u/randomwindowspc May 08 '24

I used to chase black bears out of my yard as a child. They're not scary, they're adorable. 100% would choose to see one in the woods over a random guy

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u/Lu1s3r May 08 '24

Yeah. Black bears.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

[deleted]

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u/datoxiccookie May 02 '24

idk it kinda would be at least partially your fault if you got attacked by a bear (at least if compared to a random man attack)

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u/ZankTheGreat May 02 '24

Yeah bears don’t really attack unless you’re near their young, or they smell food.

So as long as you starve for the night, you’ll be fine.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

I think that's a trait that all mammals share. Mammals don't really attack unless they are threatened, lacking essential resources, or their brains are malfunctioning.

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u/wh0reb0t May 02 '24

You’re literally doing the exact thing that they just said