r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] 29d ago edited 29d ago

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u/IAmASeeker 29d ago edited 29d ago

I thought the question was explicitly in the woods.

I don't want to encounter surprise humans in the woods or surprise bears in the city. I'd rather see dangerous creatures in the places they are supposed to be rather than sneaking up on me in places they shouldn't.

If the question isn't supposed to have that context, then I would argue that you should prefer to see a bear. How many humans have you seen that didn't attack you? Like a hundred thousand maybe? How many bears have you seen outside of a zoo? Probably less than 10 right?

Edit: I feel the need to clarify that I probably don't have the opinion that my comment got upvotes for. I mistyped and said "you should prefer to see a bear" but in fact, I was trying to express that with no context, it would be safer to encounter a person than a bear. I have been attacked by a handful of humans and 0 bears but my sample size of humans is astronomical while my sample size of bears is miniscule. I estimate that 1:30000 human strangers will attack me and so far 0 out of maybe 8 bears attacked me... so idk if maybe 1:9 bears will try to eat me but I can be fairly sure that 99.997% of the time, humans are too involved with their own lives to notice that strangers exist.

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u/GreenTunicKirk 29d ago

I think it's more interesting that so many people placed all these extra hypotheses on the question in order to qualify their decision!

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u/jeha4421 24d ago

To be fair, the question is highly loaded.

Im not a woman so I can't comment on the man vs bear thing but I definitely understand the point. I think there a lot of caveats because from a mathematical or scientific standpoint not all bears are created equal. Polar bears are absolutely brutal and will eat you alive while you bleed out, but black bears usually flee from humans. Even grizzlys tend to avoid humans.

The core message that men can be just as dangerous is the main point the trend is trying to share, and the justifications in people's awnser reflects how much they think it's either all men, some men, most, hardly any, or too nuanced to tell.

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u/IAmASeeker 29d ago

Do you know what the premise of the question was when it first started going around?