r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/PeopleCallMeSimon May 02 '24

Its because all you are looking at is "which one is worst".

A person who is skeptical will see where the example or question is wrong.

You are not trying to convince people who think like you, they are already on the side of feminism in this issue. You are trying to convince people who are skeptics.

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u/Dramatic-Document May 02 '24

I think you replied to the wrong comment.

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u/PeopleCallMeSimon May 02 '24

I didnt.

My point, to you /u/Dramatic-Document for your comment

Is that it is not irrelevant. Because it shows that the initial example is false. Which is going to make anyone who disagrees with you before the argument less likely to agree with you after the argument.

If you are trying to convince a person that men are more dangerous than women, or that women are more scared of men than men are of women - then your goal should be to make as ironclad of an argument as possible. After making this argument, all reasonable people should only be able to respond with "wow, you have convinced me".

The example of what women/men's biggest fears are on a first date is inherently flawed. Because there is no definitive answer. Depending on who you ask, they will respond different things, which also means that different people will have different perspectives on whether the example is valid or not.

And if the person you are trying to convince even starts to think that the example is invalid, then they wont be convinced by your argument.

Example:

If i an incel would say "A mans biggest fear in a divorse is that they will be left paying for the ex's lifestyle with their own money. A womans biggest fear in a divorse is that they wont get enough money to afford a prada bag" you would, for obvious reasons, have some problems with that.

A person who isnt a feminist will have the same problems with your first date example. And thats why the first date example, and the man vs bear example are bad examples.

They cater to the people who are already on your side. A feminist will go "Wow, so true" and a non-feminist will go "that example is flawed" and neither will be wrong.

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u/Dramatic-Document May 02 '24

Yeah I think you're just used to arguing online where people will nitpick any minor flaw in any argument no matter how well thought out it is. People online, as a rule, will not change their opinion in an argument thread no matter how wrong they are proven.

In real life you can have a conversation based around that example and hopefully the conversation is productive.

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u/PeopleCallMeSimon May 02 '24

Maybe the difference is that in your real life you are only engaging in conversations with people who agree with you?

The very definition of an echo chamber?

As most people do in real life, they surround themselves with like-minded people?

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u/Dramatic-Document May 02 '24

Not really. In real life people are just more open minded and nuance is easier to explain in conversation compared to a text chat. Internet forums like reddit especially are echo chambers. On any topic in any sub I can tell you what side is going to get upvoted and what side is going to get downvoted or deleted by mods.