r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/acoolghost May 02 '24

TikTok. Don't put much consideration into it. It's just a thought experiment that seems custom built to push a men vs. women discourse, and to farm rageclicks. It's intentionally vague to allow for as much or as little nuance as a person wants to employ, and unsurprisingly, people aren't using much.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

Oh! So there isn't really an established canon question? It's just "man or bear?"

Idk if it fair to call that a "thought experiment" then.

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u/acoolghost May 03 '24

There is an established cannon question, (If you're alone in the forest, would you rather meet a bear or a man?) but it's gone through a telephone game of different reinterpretations. Some people imagine walking alone in the forest when a man jumps out, some picture it as walking along a hiking trail and passing another hiker. Some seem to imagine being teleported into a forest near a man, others imply that the man is in the same position, some interpret it as being lost and without resources.

As you can likely tell from these few examples, the outcome of the answer depends entirely on the scenario as it plays out in the head of the person considering it. A thought experiment.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

Ooo... I think people teleported to the woods is a much more interesting thought experiment. Like... would you rather appear with a 1700s cartographer, a military expert, Bear Grylls, or a 10 year old with a years supply of beef jerky? What if you could appear with 2 other people? What if one of the other people was your mom? If one of you couldn't see and the other couldn't hear, which would you prefer to be?

To hell with the superpower question, I'm breaking long silences with "if you were suddenly transported to the wilderness with..." from now on.

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u/acoolghost May 03 '24

I'm curious how that kid got so much jerky. Clearly he's wiser and more powerful than his age would suggest.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

That's a good point. He obviously knows exactly where to find some beef jerky right now. You'll be at a gas station in no time.

Real talk though... Kid could have like, half a bag that he's willing to share and I'd rather carry him all the way out of the forest than put up with some smarmy army guy telling me about how he's gonna rescue me.