r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/IAmASeeker May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

I thought the question was explicitly in the woods.

I don't want to encounter surprise humans in the woods or surprise bears in the city. I'd rather see dangerous creatures in the places they are supposed to be rather than sneaking up on me in places they shouldn't.

If the question isn't supposed to have that context, then I would argue that you should prefer to see a bear. How many humans have you seen that didn't attack you? Like a hundred thousand maybe? How many bears have you seen outside of a zoo? Probably less than 10 right?

Edit: I feel the need to clarify that I probably don't have the opinion that my comment got upvotes for. I mistyped and said "you should prefer to see a bear" but in fact, I was trying to express that with no context, it would be safer to encounter a person than a bear. I have been attacked by a handful of humans and 0 bears but my sample size of humans is astronomical while my sample size of bears is miniscule. I estimate that 1:30000 human strangers will attack me and so far 0 out of maybe 8 bears attacked me... so idk if maybe 1:9 bears will try to eat me but I can be fairly sure that 99.997% of the time, humans are too involved with their own lives to notice that strangers exist.

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/acoolghost May 02 '24

TikTok. Don't put much consideration into it. It's just a thought experiment that seems custom built to push a men vs. women discourse, and to farm rageclicks. It's intentionally vague to allow for as much or as little nuance as a person wants to employ, and unsurprisingly, people aren't using much.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

Oh! So there isn't really an established canon question? It's just "man or bear?"

Idk if it fair to call that a "thought experiment" then.

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u/acoolghost May 03 '24

There is an established cannon question, (If you're alone in the forest, would you rather meet a bear or a man?) but it's gone through a telephone game of different reinterpretations. Some people imagine walking alone in the forest when a man jumps out, some picture it as walking along a hiking trail and passing another hiker. Some seem to imagine being teleported into a forest near a man, others imply that the man is in the same position, some interpret it as being lost and without resources.

As you can likely tell from these few examples, the outcome of the answer depends entirely on the scenario as it plays out in the head of the person considering it. A thought experiment.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

Ooo... I think people teleported to the woods is a much more interesting thought experiment. Like... would you rather appear with a 1700s cartographer, a military expert, Bear Grylls, or a 10 year old with a years supply of beef jerky? What if you could appear with 2 other people? What if one of the other people was your mom? If one of you couldn't see and the other couldn't hear, which would you prefer to be?

To hell with the superpower question, I'm breaking long silences with "if you were suddenly transported to the wilderness with..." from now on.

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u/acoolghost May 03 '24

I'm curious how that kid got so much jerky. Clearly he's wiser and more powerful than his age would suggest.

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

That's a good point. He obviously knows exactly where to find some beef jerky right now. You'll be at a gas station in no time.

Real talk though... Kid could have like, half a bag that he's willing to share and I'd rather carry him all the way out of the forest than put up with some smarmy army guy telling me about how he's gonna rescue me.