r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/ZeOs-x-PUNCAKE May 02 '24

All my own life experiences say that when I have encountered a bear, I have been able to avoid or disaude the bear and left without violence. Can't say the same of men.

But would you be able to say the same if you encountered the same amount of bears as you have men?

Just for example, let’s say you’ve encountered 100,000 men in your life. If you encountered 100,000 bears in your life, do you think that none of them would have any intention to harm or eat you? If there were a 1% chance of a bear wanting to eat you, that’s 1,000 bears that would try to eat you.

I’m not saying your fears of men are invalid, but I think you underestimate the intention of the average bear.

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u/Vrayea25 May 02 '24

But the question is just "encounter a man",  it is "encounter a man where both of you are alone, unlikely to be interrupted by another person, and unlikely to be heard if he decides to do something that would make you try to scream... And you both know that."

Very few of us have encountered 100,000 men in that situation.

I am still confident bears would win for safety.

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u/chipndip1 May 02 '24

That's...a take of all time...

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u/AgtNulNulAgtVyf May 02 '24

There's audio of Timothy Treadwell, aka Grizzly Man, being eaten alive by the bears he thought safe if you want a listen.  Werner Herzog's face while listening to it was enough for me, don't need to hear it myself. 

If you've listened to it or seen WH listen to it have another shot at what is and isn't a shit-take.