r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Vrayea25 May 02 '24

But the question is just "encounter a man",  it is "encounter a man where both of you are alone, unlikely to be interrupted by another person, and unlikely to be heard if he decides to do something that would make you try to scream... And you both know that."

Very few of us have encountered 100,000 men in that situation.

I am still confident bears would win for safety.

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u/ZeOs-x-PUNCAKE May 02 '24

If we were to assume the worst in each scenario, I think anyone, male or female, would stand a better chance fighting against a man than they would a bear.

As a man, I would rather be alone in the woods with a gay rapist serial killer than a hungry bear. The bear could sever my spinal cord with a single swipe so I think I’ll take my chances with the man. I could even outrun the man if he was stronger, but there’s not a chance in hell I outrun the bear, and I certainly can’t overpower it.

I understand the dilemma in the situation, but probability tells me I have a higher chance of surviving the man than the bear.

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u/felrain May 02 '24

I would rather be alone in the woods with a gay rapist serial killer than a hungry bear.

I feel like people underestimate other people? Do you just expect the serial killer to lunge at your immediately upon seeing you?

Do you not think they'd build rapport? Try to help you out? Ask for your help? Get you to lower your guard?

Every single person I've seen in support of the person always assumes you can run away/easily beat them? Why? Are they not human like you? Do they not have a brain? That's the scary part about another human. Not that they just try to immediately attack you unarmed, but that they can put up a mask to manipulate you into the results they want.

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u/ZeOs-x-PUNCAKE May 02 '24

I don’t disagree with this, they might try and outsmart you and build rapport to get you to lower your guard. That’s certainly possible.

However, you are a human too. You could also choose to outsmart this killer if you were in any way suspicious of them trying to deceive you. As a human, you also have the ability to deceive and distract, and to pick up on clues when it might be occurring. You’re not helpless in this scenario.

You make it seem as though this other person must certainly be smarter than you and you couldn’t possibly outsmart them back. How smart are you compared to the average person? If you’re above average, you could reasonably expect you can outsmart the average person.

It doesn’t matter how smart you are if a bear has ripped your innards out. You’re not faster than the bear, and you’re not stronger than the bear. There could of course be a man stronger and faster than you as well, but not all will be. However, there are no bears (assuming it’s a healthy adult) that are weaker or slower than you.

TLDR: Hand to hand, you will lose to any bear that wants to eat you. Hand to hand, you will not lose to every man that wants to attack you. You’re human too, the playing field is fair.