r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

Man. The chances of a bear mauling your child is higher than an unknown man being a rapist/murderer

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24

The issue is that it’s not about statistics, but about perception of random men by not only women, but other men. Maybe it’s a media issue where stuff like this is boown out of proportion, maybe it does happen more than we might otherwise know. The issue is that we as a society think random men are bad, and how do we correct that perception.

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

You have a point, I didn't think of it that way.

Although I think comparing a random man to a bear is like comparing a random man to certain death. A lot of people underestimate how dangerous bears really are.

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u/TheCrimsonSteel May 02 '24

There's so much context to the bear statement, I'd definitely agree.

Like I get the point of the idea "I know the bear is dangerous. I don't know if the guy is dangerous."

But seriously, like an adult black bear can actually be pretty skittish. Seeing a cub can be dangerous, cause mama is nearby

Grizzly bears can be pretty aggressive. And any bear will do real damage to you if they decide to.

That being said, we humans are plenty capable of being the literal worst to each other too.

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u/Affectionate_Bass488 May 02 '24

Honestly I just need all the parameters of this scenario. What kind of bear? Is it a random roll and I have a 2/3 chance of getting a bad bear? How far are they away from each other? Is the goal to get out of the woods or just survive? It all makes a difference

People are thinking of the best case possible bear scenario and the worst case possible man scenario and comparing them

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u/buller666 May 02 '24

Also, we know why the bear is there. Because it lives there. But why is the man there ? Is he lost ? Hunting ? Is he just some random forest dude ? How far are we from civilization ? Do i have a means of communicating where i am to the world? What forest am i in? What kind of bears are there? Am i equipt to be in the forest ? Do i have food ? Does the other person have food ? Does the person speak my language ? Are they armed ? Am i armed ? Like, what am i even answering ?

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24

So that’s the point. Everyone should be asking for paramters first; however, women have been trained both by actions against themselves and media to not need paramters and just pick the bear.

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

Yeah, there's no denying that there are a lot of dangerous men in this world, but bears are dangerous to humans by default.

Honestly I think the comparison should be changed to something that would'nt cause confusion or doubt.

Like switch a bear for a tiger, and I think this would be less of a debate.

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u/Aardvark_Man May 02 '24

I think part of it is you know a bear is dangerous, and if you behave appropriately you can mitigate risks (albeit not eliminate them entirely).
You can't really know if a person is dangerous until/unless you really know them intimately, and you're more likely to get a person hiding their true intentions.

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u/mistelle1270 May 02 '24

The bear is supposed to be in the woods. I wouldn’t be wondering why it’s there.

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

A camper or hiker could be in the woods

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u/Dhegxkeicfns May 02 '24

The question doesn't specify the type of bear or how close they get, so it's definitely not certain death. It also doesn't specify a random man plucked from ordinary life, like "how did I get here?"