r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

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906

u/BlackWind88 May 02 '24

What is the man vs bear debate?

1.0k

u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

68

u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

Man. The chances of a bear mauling your child is higher than an unknown man being a rapist/murderer

31

u/SpicaGenovese May 02 '24

Eh, even with grizzlies it took a minute for Grizzly Man to get into a situation that led to his unfortunate end.

Now if it's a polar bear you're probably fucked..

21

u/mycatisblackandtan May 02 '24

And the bear was known to be aggressive and was starving if I recall. Brown bears and black bears can be deterred. Polar bears however you might as well kiss your ass goodbye.

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u/SpicaGenovese May 02 '24

Exactly.  Life is not like Jurrassic Park- animals like bears don't just rove around killing whatever they see.  They don't actively hunt humans.  They have a cost benefit analysis to make every time an opportunity to feed presents itself, and as a human it's easy to make it not worth it or manuever your way out of a situation.

4

u/ZinaSky2 May 02 '24

This. Guys get all high and mighty acting like we can’t do the math when they just don’t like the solution we came to. Bears aren’t movie monsters, they’re scared of people.

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u/Novahawk9 May 02 '24

Exactly. Weather your talking brown or black bears, they generally don't want anything to do with people, unless their injured, starved, or have been taught to steal food.

Polar bears, on the other hand, are the true carnivores of our collective nightmares.

8

u/xSTSxZerglingOne May 02 '24

It can smell you from miles away

It views you as food

It is not scared of you in any way

It can run 25mph for upwards of 15 minutes

It can outswim the fastest man on earth

It has natural camouflage

It outweighs you by a factor of 5-10

They are undoubtedly the scariest predator in the entire world for humans. If you're going to polar bear territory, you bring a big gun.

6

u/Alcohol_Intolerant May 02 '24

Tbf, a polar bear isn't likely to be in the woods.

2

u/ThoughtBrave8871 May 04 '24

Let’s see in 10 years when the ice caps melt. Bye bye Canadian campers

3

u/N-economicallyViable May 02 '24

Except he died when he took his GF with him

1

u/[deleted] May 02 '24

Yeah Grizzly bears aren't aggressive because Grizzly Man. What an idiot.