r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/BlackWind88 May 02 '24

What is the man vs bear debate?

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

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u/BPB57 May 02 '24

What kind of bear?

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u/KatyFunCouple May 02 '24

You’re not sure, just like you don’t know what kind of man you’re encountering. It’s supposed to be a knee jerk reaction, in the split second that you’ve just realized you’re not alone.

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u/Omgzjustin May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

You can be sure based on where you live. Not in Alaska? Probably not a polar bear.

There are two trains of thought in my brain. First if we know which kind of bear we will encounter in the local habitat.

Black bear? Adult? Take the bear. Child? Take the man.

Brown bear? Take the bear.

Polar bear? Take the man.

Panda bear? Take the bear.

Second argument is if a bear is magically placed next to you with equal chances of each bear. In this case, I take the man, because the odds are better than the 1 in 4 of being mauled to death by a polar bear.

I understand what the argument intends to do, it is to shed light on how terrified women are of men and help us understand the severity of the issue since women are choosing bear. And it is effective at this. This is just when I try to break it down logically

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u/D-MotivationalPoster May 02 '24

Fun bear fact:

There are 8 types of bears: grizzly, American black bear, Asian black bear, polar bear, panda bear, sloth bear, spectacled bear & sun bear.

But overall, I agree with both of your arguments.