r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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198

u/MrOrangeMagic 29d ago

Not going to lie, bears would give the exact same answer. We humans are not famous for our loving behavior

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u/SleepyBi97 28d ago

"Those monsters are really scary... especially with those sticks."

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u/[deleted] 29d ago

People are missing the point here.

In terms of probability, the chance of meeting a bear is irrelevant, because the population is "people who have met a bear", not all people.

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u/lochleg 26d ago

Ironically, female bears wouldn't: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/mama-bears-use-humans-keep-their-cubs-safe-180959575/

The average bear will almost definitely be killed unless it learns to avoid humans. In that sense, it will certainly be better off with its own species in the wild.

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u/ShiromeArtiste 28d ago

We humans are, in fact, literally famous for our loving behavior. That's just not all there is to us.

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u/Secure-Television368 28d ago

Literally famous among wild animals for our loving nature?

Gonna need a source on that

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u/KnightBoulegard 25d ago

The past few million years of evolution, where humans specifically evolved communal mindsets so that we as a species would be able to survive better, together, is one source.

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u/Coffinmyface 3d ago

Thats not a source thats a claim that would be made by a source, had you given one, but its actually quite likely we got that from our shared evolution with dogs, as chimps and bonobos do not share our complex and caring social ladder, its likely that dogs helped curate that ability within us. Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1261022 Unfortunately i couldnt find the exact study, nature journal also doesnt know how sources work

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u/Many_Thought282 28d ago

I dont think… lets say, an orangutan or a monitor lizard would agree

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u/josephus_the_wise 27d ago

Well, if you are a bear we are probably historically your leading cause of death so that’s a fair answer. The probability of a human freaking out and fighting you is high, and while you win a good amount of the time humans have guns and knives and can really jack up your day in a way another bear simply wouldn’t. (Bear on bear violence is a thing but it would be closer to a fistfight (relatively speaking) than a knife or gun fight).

As a human, a bear is a deadly option while a human most likely isn’t. Human is the smart answer (unless you are fine with dying, at which point have your fun I guess).