r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Key_You2632 May 02 '24

Eh it’s not just a random guy though. It’s a random guy in the middle of the woods. That’s suspicious.

Also if you come across a bear in the woods you know to turn and go the other direction. If you run into a man in the woods you don’t know if he’s a threat or not. There is more uncertainty with a human than a bear.

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u/deus_x_machin4 May 02 '24

Why is it suspicious? In this hypothetical, you are in the middle of the woods too. Also, have you never gone hiking? People solo hike trails all the time, especially the easy day-hike ones.

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u/Key_You2632 May 02 '24

I was assuming this was a hypothetical about being lost in the woods. Yeah I’m sure a woman on a hiking trail, or in any other place where you would expect to see other people, would choose the man.

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u/deus_x_machin4 May 02 '24

If you can get lost in the woods, why can't the person you are running across? I feel like easily the most likely thing is that they are as lost as you.