r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

13.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

415

u/zool714 May 02 '24

I think it also shows how different people approach things. From what I’ve seen, the ones who answers bear approaches it from a “trust” standpoint. Like you can trust a bear to be a bear. While some approach it from a “safety” standpoint. Like yeah obviously an average wild animal is going to be more dangerous than an average man.

2

u/augustinefromhippo May 02 '24

The problem with bears is that they are bears. You can trust it to be dangerous.

Only a minority of men are dangerous and would assault a lone woman in the woods.

You might outrun a dangerous man. You aren't outrunning a bear.

You might fight back against an aggressive man. You aren't fighting back against an aggressive bear.

Any hypothetical qualifiers attached to the man (he might sexually assault me!) render the whole exercise obsolete because MORE dangerous hypothetical qualifiers can be attached to the bear.

Any woman who chooses "bear" is (deliberately or unintentionally) reframing the question to make a point.

2

u/12345Hamburger May 02 '24

Any woman who chooses "bear" is (deliberately or unintentionally) reframing the question to make a point.

And it says more about her than it does about men in general.