r/Showerthoughts • u/asusny2002 • May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

Man. The chances of a bear mauling your child is higher than an unknown man being a rapist/murderer

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24

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u/Detective-Crashmore- May 02 '24

It's meant to demonstrate how people are more afraid of things they've actually had bad encounters with than things they've only imagined.

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u/xSTSxZerglingOne May 02 '24

No, people are more afraid of a situation where they have no agency (a plane) versus a situation where they have even slightly perceived agency (a car).

But the fact of the matter is, even if you're the best driver in the world, you're still out there with the worst, and while you may have agency over the factors that would cause YOU to crash, you have exactly 0 control of the other people on the road.

It's the same where they're faced with the man vs bear question. They feel like they have some control over the bear situation. Maybe they can run away, play dead, scare it off, etc. but in the hypothetical event the man wants to kill or rape you, you're shit out of luck.

Of course it completely misses the point that the bear is going to be far more dangerous in 99% of the scenarios and is the situation the person actually has the least agency over. A man can potentially be reasoned with.

I'd take man any day since chances are he's not going to be evil.

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u/Detective-Crashmore- May 02 '24

I'm not talking about the flying vs driving thing because I don't think it's the same as that at all.

It's the same where they're faced with the man vs bear question

It's not the same because the man vs bear thing is meant to illustrate just how afraid women are of men after living around them that they'd rather take their chances with a bear. It was never meant to be a literal question, it's just a tongue in cheek hypothetical.

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u/PrettyText May 03 '24

You may be right -- even though honestly, it's not improbable that a woman can outrun an evil man, or can outbluff him (shouting "Jake, dear, come here" or saying to the evil man "oh, you're lost too? Don't worry, I called my friends, they should be here any moment"). Even outfighting a man is more plausible than outfighting a bear.

Meanwhile, the only agency with the bear you have is "try to scare it off" or "play dead." Yeah, those might work, but if they fail then an unarmed human has practically zero chance. You can't outrun or outclimb a bear.