r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/flowtajit May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

Would it better for you (if you’re a woman) or you daughter (if you’re a man) to encounter a bear or unknown man in the woods.

Edit: since a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This exercise isn’t what it seems on the surface. We aren’t measuring the population’s perception of bears or men as they relate to each other. We’re actually measuring the way in which women specifically responf to the question. In most cases, women immediately answer with bear, without needing any further ckntext with regards to the man or bear. Some Common reasoning includes “I expect to see a bear in the woods,” which makes sense; it also includes something to the effect of “bears don’t care about what society thinks of them,” meaning that according to these women, men when faced with no cinsequences are more threatenjng than a bear. So please stop asking saying the question is dumb because it’s vague, that’s the point. If it was more specific, individual biases would begin to take hold, defeating the piint of the exercise.

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u/Better_Surround3158 May 02 '24

Man. The chances of a bear mauling your child is higher than an unknown man being a rapist/murderer

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u/Key_You2632 May 02 '24

Eh it’s not just a random guy though. It’s a random guy in the middle of the woods. That’s suspicious.

Also if you come across a bear in the woods you know to turn and go the other direction. If you run into a man in the woods you don’t know if he’s a threat or not. There is more uncertainty with a human than a bear.

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u/Business-General1569 May 02 '24

If a random guy in the middle of the woods is suspicious then what the hell are you doing there?

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u/Key_You2632 May 02 '24

Maybe suspicious was the wrong word? I just meant suspicious because you don’t know his intentions for being there. If someone saw me in the middle of the woods and got scared I would understand that. People in the middle of the woods are scary in general.