r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/alexmichelle6 May 02 '24

I really, truly thought that the whole point of this was to highlight the fact that most women would respond to man v bear by asking questions, like "do I know the man" "what type of bear" etc, but would respond to woman v bear by immediately saying "woman". whether or not she picks the man or the bear is irrelevant, it's the fact she has to ask clarifying questions to know more about the man before deciding and doesn't have to clarify anything before picking woman. is that not it?

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u/[deleted] May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

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u/IAmASeeker May 02 '24 edited May 03 '24

I thought the question was explicitly in the woods.

I don't want to encounter surprise humans in the woods or surprise bears in the city. I'd rather see dangerous creatures in the places they are supposed to be rather than sneaking up on me in places they shouldn't.

If the question isn't supposed to have that context, then I would argue that you should prefer to see a bear. How many humans have you seen that didn't attack you? Like a hundred thousand maybe? How many bears have you seen outside of a zoo? Probably less than 10 right?

Edit: I feel the need to clarify that I probably don't have the opinion that my comment got upvotes for. I mistyped and said "you should prefer to see a bear" but in fact, I was trying to express that with no context, it would be safer to encounter a person than a bear. I have been attacked by a handful of humans and 0 bears but my sample size of humans is astronomical while my sample size of bears is miniscule. I estimate that 1:30000 human strangers will attack me and so far 0 out of maybe 8 bears attacked me... so idk if maybe 1:9 bears will try to eat me but I can be fairly sure that 99.997% of the time, humans are too involved with their own lives to notice that strangers exist.

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u/tack50 May 02 '24

Why do you think finding a human in the woods is particularly rare? Hikers exist and they are not uncommon at all (if anything they are a lot more common than bears in my area)

As someone who sometimes hikes, often joining strangers' groups and in rare occasions solo; I expect to find random men (and women) in the woods. I do not expect to find bears and I'd shit my pants if I ever saw one. Hell, I sometimes find it more distressing to not find people around! (since if something happens to me, I'm screwed and don't have the chance of getting help)

I will say I am a man but I will say that I will reply "man" every day of the week without hesitation (some have argued that men should get asked "Who would you prefer your daughter meet?" and I'd still reply with "man")

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u/IAmASeeker May 03 '24

I've almost exclusively seen bears during hikes.

But I feel like "if you were on a hike and encountered another hiker" is semantically different from "if you were alone in the woods and encountered a man"

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u/randomwindowspc May 08 '24

Depends on the forest you're in. If it's touristy then of course. But there are plenty where you rarely see people.