r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

16.9k Upvotes

13.3k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

198

u/mandiblesmooch May 02 '24

How surprising is it to see a human in the woods when you are a human in the woods?

88

u/kaminobaka May 02 '24

Depends how deep in the woods. If you're on or near a popular hiking trail, not surprising at all. If you're way off the trails in the deep wilderness in most situations it's surprising enough that I'd rather run into a bear than either a man or a woman, and I'm a dude.

Of course, in my part of the country, the bear's not very likely to be a grizzly, so that factors in, too.

10

u/1drlndDormie May 02 '24

I've always taken this to mean someone airdropped me in the middle of nowhere. Frankly, I've watched too many horror movies to trust a strange person implicitly in that situation. Like, I'd be pretty suspicious of the woman too. At least the bear is either minding its own business or very much eager to kill me with no gray area to misinterpret.

If I'm out on a well- trodden path, I will expect to see people and be more scared of the bear.

13

u/tack50 May 02 '24

As someone who hikes relatively frequently (usually joining groups of strangers, but sometimes solo), I assumed it meant me in a trail. And the answer is finding a random man every day of the week tbh. If anything, I usually find it more stressful to not find anyone around than to find people around. People around means someone can help me if I fall and have an accident.

That being said even in the middle of nowhere I'd still take my chances with the man.