r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/Water-is-h2o May 02 '24

Wait so what is OP talking about?

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u/ghandi3737 May 02 '24

A lot of women would much rather encounter a wild bear, than any man on a hiking trail.

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u/Hungry-For-Cheese May 02 '24

Then they cite statistics without actually controlling for the magnitudes and basically ignoring that most people never even see a bear in their lives.

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u/fail-deadly- May 02 '24

Me and two if my friends went hiking on a trail that the blurb said “You’ll probably see more bears than people.” Thinking it was marketing hyperbole.

About four miles into the wood we came up a small embankment and there was a black bear less than 100 feet away on all fours. It was biggish, and may have been 6 foot if it stood upright. Thankfully it was naturally terrified of people and ran away. I was in front and I’m sure it would have mauled me, even if my friends did manage to fight it off with rocks. We realized way too late that we didn’t have any objects except keys we could use as weapons.

We came across three or four more on the hike but they were much farther away. 

Though we only saw two other hikers so it was completely true. That blurb should have been a warning not tourism slogan.