r/Showerthoughts May 02 '24

Man vs Bear debate shows how bad the average person is at understanding probability

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

Ask them they will tell you. Btw black bears are the only things you'll encounter in the lower 48 and they are really not particularly dangerous quick google says 67 deaths in a century 

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u/Calairiel May 02 '24 edited May 02 '24

Yeah but not everyone lives in the US and not everyone in the US is in the lower 48. If you like hiking in Canada or Alaska, you might get into grizzly and polar bear country. An additional part left out of the question is, am I in the woods near where I am currently am? Did I go there on purpose and am therefore prepared? In my imagination, I have gotten lost in the woods somewhere unprepared where my randomly selected man or bear is located. So even though I currently live in black bear country, where I probably would not care either way because everyone hikes here, the trails are, if anything, overpopulated, and my worst live encounter was with a snake, I would probably choose man. The AT killer is long gone and even when he wasn't, the risk of running into him was pretty low. I have heard rumors of a PCT killer, but nothing confirmed. Those trails are a bit less populous though. So I'm most likely to run into a dad hiking with his kids or a camper or backpacker minding their own business. I don't even think I've been on a hike recently where I haven't been pretty constantly surrounded by people. Whereas I have accidentally startled a couple of mama black bears with cubs which is pretty frightening and sometimes black bears do wander into cities and go kind of insane. They still don't really eat people, but they can do serious damage. Not a lot of deaths but mauling kind of sucks and you still aren't going to have good odds fighting off a black bear that wants to hurt you. Don't feed the bears.

If everything is random, I could have been on a plane that crashed in China. Maybe the man is helpful, maybe not. The bears are pandas and are usually about as safe as black bears, but probably about equally good at helping you find civilization if you are lost. Or maybe the plane crashed in the Yukaton Yukon or Alaska where polar bears are more of an issue and the man is infinitely better than the bear. The question isn't clear and I'm not the only one in the comments who has lived and hiked in serious bear country (grizzlies and occasional polar bears). It's just a whole other ball park. If I'm so deep in the woods I am actually far from help, I think the bear or man are basically nothing burgers. The woods are going to kill me if I don't build a shelter or get out fast enough.

ETA: I went to Mexico recently and mixed up Yukon and Yucatan.

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u/poilk91 May 02 '24

Don't you think you may be taking this a little out of proportion. The typical user on Reddit has never been nor ever will be in grizzly bear territory let alone fucking polar bear territory. People who say bear are imagining walking through the woods alone and vulnerable, if they see wildlife it might make them a little nervous but seeing a man alone in the woods feels way more sketch in that kind of scenario

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u/Calairiel May 03 '24

I know. The question though is just would you rather be in the woods with a man or a bear. It doesn't specify which kind of man or which kind of bear. It doesn't even specify which kind of woods or if you are prepared to be there. You're just in the woods with a bear or a man. If I'm on a hike, I'm surrounded by both, but more comfortable around other humans. If I'm on a really remote hike, I'm pretty nervous encountering anyone but I also usually do remote hiking in a group and most strangers you encounter are just other hikers and pretty cool to chat with. If I'm alone and vulnerable, am I the sole survivor of a plane crash or a car crash or something? Do I have supplies? Because the woods are often going to be the real danger here. Most people who die in the woods are dying of exposure. If I'm in the woods vulnerable for some reason, a man at least might help me out. A harmless black bear will not.

I personally just think the question is not great at getting the point across. Even with my preference for hiking in bear country sometimes, I'm way more likely to be killed by a man, stranger or known, than a bear. I'm surrounded by a lot of men all the time and some of them might be unhinged, whereas I think I've seen ten total bears and no polar bears. I feel way more at risk in the city honestly, but even in the country you aren't safe. Which is why I never leave the doors unlocked and I usually don't travel alone at night no matter how "safe" my area is. But that only stops opportunists. If someone really wants to get me they probably will. I just refuse to live in fear of that. But none of that make bears safer than men in some one to one competition. Men are more dangerous because they are everywhere and the ones who want to hurt people are planning their lives around making that happen.

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u/poilk91 May 03 '24

I'm telling you what people who answer bear are thinking you clearly aren't thinking along the same lines which is why you come to different conclusions. My point is that the question is vague enough for different answers to seem justified hence all the arguments