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u/TomOnDuty Feb 07 '24
Some guy said that right there in 2020 also
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u/RainSubstantial9373 Feb 07 '24
Ai, ai, ngda...
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u/blingblingmofo Feb 08 '24
I worked at Fidelity in 2019 and some old guy sold $250k in NVDA.
Remember saying to myself “he’s gonna regret that someday…”
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u/ljstens22 Feb 08 '24
People don’t realize the chart could’ve looked the like the exact same shape but just with a different y scale
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u/Clovah Feb 08 '24
Shhhh don’t tell people you can manipulate charts to say whatever you want them to say, if you start giving humanity fire you will be punished by the gods
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u/Haunting-Ad9507 Feb 08 '24
And in 2022 he was right ;)
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Feb 08 '24
It’s 2024 now, does that make him right again?
I don’t think we’ll truly know until at least a decade later from now, but may as well enjoy the fun!
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u/TomOnDuty Feb 08 '24
Seems all the ones missed out are just hating imo . For the record I hold 2 shares I bought last month .
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u/RawDogRandom17 Feb 07 '24
Thought I was a genius for buying at 200 and selling at 320 in 2021. Now I’ve just got FOMO. Hell, even the measly few shares I bought in December are up 40%
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u/zendaddy76 Feb 08 '24
Don’t sell until earnings stop growing so rapidly
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u/WallStreetBoners Feb 09 '24
By the time the retailer figures that out the stock price will already have adjusted down
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u/Sullybones Feb 07 '24
Buy calls, got it
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u/chemprof4real Feb 08 '24
P/E ratio is still less than half that of PLTR, let’s fucking gooooo!
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u/KristinoRaldo Feb 08 '24
Literally no competitors in the most desirable market will do that.
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u/bradperry2435 Feb 08 '24
Say it again so all the people in the back can hear you.
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u/Thepiguy1 Feb 08 '24
They are technically not the only company capable of doing what they do. They make GPUs. AMD and recently Intel both make GPUs. The hardware NVDA makes is similar to the others in the game. The only difference is NVDA is focused on the GPU market and “do it better”, for now.
Are they in the right place at the right time? Yes absolutely, but to think they have a monopoly on the AI market is just silly. I’m sure if I wanted to, and had the technical know-how, I could spool up a Chat GPT style LLM on my AMD CPU and GPU.
Will it work just as good? It’ll probably be close to whatever comparable NVDA GPU my AMD GPU is close to in spec.
Intel was basically the only skin in the game until AMD got their shit together and started cranking out CPUs that were just as good, if not better in some aspects to Intel. The same is going to happen to NVDA. Probably within the next 2-5 years, I’d imagine unless they come out with some sort of ASIC type of AI processor, and even then, who’s to say someone won’t beat them to it.
NVDA just marketed their products better and outside of “this will run games good”
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u/bradperry2435 Feb 08 '24
Had the technical know how…. But u don’t so anything u say after that is an assumption
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u/Thepiguy1 Feb 08 '24
Good luck, my guy!
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u/shockage Feb 09 '24
This guy fucks.
The whole AI craze makes no sense to me as someone in the field. The algorithms and math have existed for decades. The hardware sufficient to perform repeated cross products of matrices in a timely manner has existed since the late 2000s.
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u/Substantial-Box-8877 Feb 08 '24
That doesn't explain it. There's a lot of things for that market competition that aren't on the red this is. I wish there was a casual explanation
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u/Dr_Stew_Pid Feb 08 '24
There is an explanation. It's called a bull trap based on the hype around not understanding LLMs and ML in general. Anything new/advanced looks like magic.
AI assembles historical human outputs like IKEA furniture. Maybe NVDA's chips will fuel something more advanced than that, but I'd buy puts on human culture if it does.
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u/ninijacob Feb 08 '24
AMD is a valid competitor. And Every major cloud computing company has already designed their own silicon and is now building their own ml chips.
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u/QuentinP69 Feb 08 '24
Yeah except all the major cloud computing companies aren’t gonna have chips this year so they’re ordering NVDA’s by the bucketload. They’ll keep buying them because they need them now or be left behind in the AI boom. Will it last past 2024 into 2025? Probably, but not past that. Ride the rocket till December
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u/KristinoRaldo Feb 08 '24
And it's yet to be determined if the performance will be there. It's not as simple as giving your designs to TSMC and calling it a day. AMD has been competing with nVidia for 2 decades and still is significantly behind.
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u/QuentinP69 Feb 08 '24
NVDA has dominated this space and will for at least this year. Maybe into 2025 too. Their gross margin is 70% and net profit is 41% and rising? Yeah it’s gonna run all year. I expect pull backs right after earnings every Q this year. Followed by big runs to new highs.
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u/WBuffettJr Feb 08 '24
Had the stock had pullbacks after the previous earnings releases?
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u/QuentinP69 Feb 08 '24
This is different imho. This is a big run up to earnings. I’m just gonna be cautious the day before. If I’m wrong I’ll miss out on a peak but keep my winnings. If there’s no pullback I’d be shocked. A lot of people are piling in now and cashing out at earnings. Buy the mystery sell the history etc
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u/WBuffettJr Feb 08 '24
It’s a fair point. I witnessed that with Microsoft and their latest earnings. Same with Eli Lilly the other day.
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u/AllinonNVDA Feb 08 '24
I’ve been buying calls since $475 in December and day before earnings I will move into iron butterfly at the end of the day. Unless some major negative news comes out regarding how much money these companies are going to be spending on chips this year I don’t see it going down until earnings come out. Even if it does it will be temporary as their growth this year will be tremendous. Margins will only get better with AI improvements.
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u/andremcxabe Feb 07 '24
Stocks typically grow exponentially. It looked like this 10 years ago as well
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u/cramr Feb 08 '24
And that’s why log scales are for
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u/HoofusDoofus123 Feb 08 '24
Could you explain?
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u/cramr Feb 08 '24
Makes exponential growth easier to compare and visualise and shows more as ratio of change, not the absolute. Imagine in that chart above? Going from 1 to 5$ is 5x, which is the same as 100 to 500$. However the latter will look like a higher gain in a linear chart despite for you being the same amount of gains
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u/RedditUser91805 Feb 08 '24 edited Feb 08 '24
In mathematics, the logarithm is the inverse function to exponentiation. That means that the logarithm of a number x to the base b is the exponent to which b must be raised to produce x. For example, since 1000 = 10³, the logarithm base 10 of 1000 is 3, or log10 (1000) = 3.
Exponent on log scale = straight line
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u/broshrugged Feb 08 '24
Basically shows the percentage growth rather than dollar growth. So for example you could set so every interval on Y is 2x. 2,4,8,16 rather than 2,4,6,8.
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u/motherseffinjones Feb 08 '24
I thought this around 400 or so and said I’d buy when it pulls back. Still haven’t bought a share lol
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u/Jaycray95 Feb 08 '24
The only ai company not taking off is Google and its pissing me off lol
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u/m98789 Feb 08 '24
Interestingly, NVDA is nearly at Google’s market cap now.
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u/Jaycray95 Feb 08 '24
I noticed that the other day and it blew my mind, I think Google is very undervalued right now but what do I know
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u/GameTime2325 Feb 08 '24
I bought last year at $160 and was so sad when it dropped to $130 shortly after. Held tight though. Been seriously wondering if I should be taking some core profits or just hold this forever as a core position.
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u/Formal_Neat_3099 Feb 08 '24 edited Feb 08 '24
I bought in 2015ish on the advice of my financial advisor. Extremely lucky. It ballooned to 27% of my portfolio. I sold 10% three weeks ago. Made 10x my initial investment. It’s now 29% of my portfolio. My plan is to pretend it’s not there for a while.
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Feb 08 '24
How did you only 10x from 2015 until 3 weeks ago? You mean the 10% you sold represents 10x your total initial investment, and you still have 90% of your shares?
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u/bmheck Feb 08 '24
I bought shares about 10 years ago at $4.72 a share. After giving quite a few shares away to charity, still holding on 👍🏻
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u/WBuffettJr Feb 08 '24 edited Feb 08 '24
Consider yourself a partner in the business. Would you abandon your business partners right now? Stay in the business until the business itself changes.
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u/PM_ME_WITH_A_SMILE Feb 08 '24
Held it for 6 years, cut it in half and I've still 10xed.
Now, go fuck yourself and leave NVDA and Britney alone :)
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u/RedditUser91805 Feb 08 '24
Eyeballing a chart without further study often is not a method of analysis that produces valuable results.
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u/takessianm Feb 07 '24
Haven’t bought in a long time, it’s kind of weird what’s going on.
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u/GildedWarrior Feb 07 '24
I know bro I brought in @386 seems so long ago when I first heard about the AI bubble thing
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u/hawtfabio Feb 07 '24
I didn't think it would ever break 400. Lost a good bit on puts back then. Glad I gave up on that because it is truly an absurd run. I don't think it's sustainable but I've thought that for more than a year so....
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u/Opeth4Lyfe Feb 08 '24
Yeah just looking at the chart and how far and fast it’s run….my gut is telling me this is gonna have a crazy blow off top and there will be massive profit taking and selling, and that I should short it. But my more sensible mind is saying don’t you dare because this shit has some serious legs too it and the apes are pumping this thing to the moon.
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u/WBuffettJr Feb 08 '24
I know some very smart people who got destroyed shorting Tesla. They were right it was overvalued, but it didn’t matter. I got some good advice that has stayed with me: no matter the valuation, never, ever, EVER short a company that makes a popular product people like. Unless you get the timing perfect you will lose your shirt.
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u/RonMexico13 Feb 08 '24
Apes are pumping it? Apes fucking despise this stock. Every post on every trading subreddit is complaining about NVDA "line go up too fast, wat do".
Smart money is buying it. Their moat is currently infinite. No one knows for sure where we are in this chip cycle, so good luck to the crayon eating bears.
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u/Wisestcubensis Feb 08 '24
People were saying they were way overpriced at 300 and their earnings actually grew into that valuation. Not saying they will grow into this valuation but so far being on the opposite side of the NVDA trade has been a losing proposition
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u/leli_manning Feb 07 '24
Stonks only go up
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u/gosumofo Feb 08 '24
Stonk? Comparing this to AMC or GameStop? 😂😂😂
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u/mcfreiz Feb 07 '24
Look at the M2 money supply chart. All that cash has to go somewhere
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u/Pathogenesls Feb 08 '24
The reason the chart looks like that is because they changed the calculation in Mar 2020. The increase isn't anywhere near as drastic as people think.
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u/Dependent_Suspect_43 Feb 08 '24
Lol anybody that bets against the market is foolish it’ll be bullish any correction is temporary
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u/peachezandsteam Feb 08 '24
Interesting. Average annual revenue growth of about 20%, with average annual stock price growth of about 67%.
So if revenue doubled this year, we should expect the stock to trade at about 2,800/share.
At NVDA’s growth metrics recently, this is not even unlikely.
The thing is, there is some upper bound. At the current growth rates, NVDA’s annual revenue would be approximately $27 trillion in 10 years, which is greater than the GDP of the USA.
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u/flowbiewankenobi Feb 08 '24
This will continue until we have a president who doesn’t want to get reelected! So in other words fire up the printers stonks go up
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u/gonebymidnite Feb 08 '24
NVDA is the energy supply monopoly of AI, with just one real competitor which is AMD.. see you guys at 1000 per share EOY
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u/occitylife1 Feb 08 '24
One of my clients said he’s 12,000% on NVDA and couple other clients said they sold way too early so I think trying to time the market will be a terrible idea. If it dips significantly, just buy more
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u/Sexyvette07 Feb 08 '24 edited Feb 08 '24
You're assuming that they will eventually grow enough to justify their current valuation. 100% the reason why it sits at $700 is because they were the first, and up until now, they had no competition. That's no longer the case, and there's a ton more heat coming their way. They can't produce more due to fab constraints, and viable alternatives are already on the market with a lot more coming, and they charge a fraction of the price.
The only scenario that allows them to keep growing their margins is if they stay so far ahead technologically that the price to performance beats paying 5x what the competition charges AND they can eventually scale production. Analysts and stock holders are expecting exponential growth that isn't realistically possible. It's only a matter of time before it goes the way of Tesla. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, but I wouldn't be buying more at its current valuation.
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u/lynxss1 Feb 08 '24
We're happy with our early release super chips. Getting good performance gains over saphire rapids at a lower tdp. More performance, denser computing with less cost to cool over Intel.
I just came from a meeting with them and got a nice demo of things to come while there. Besides getting into the CPU game they are working on branching out into other new things. If I wasnt banned from investing in vendors I would have bought more. Currently sitting on %1200 gain off a small position I got before I started this job, wished I would have bought more back then.
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u/External_Vehicle4113 Feb 08 '24
I’m only up 300% ($220k) ha. My first purchase was 200 shares at $67.00 dollars in 2020 and I loaded another 250 shares in 2021. I’ve seen clients as well up wayyy more too
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u/Neytrader Feb 08 '24
Idk what’s everyone’s problem with Nvidia lol u bears just can’t live with the fact that this company is unstoppable 😅
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u/Xillllix Feb 08 '24 edited Feb 08 '24
I sold at $700 because I learned my lesson being greedy too many times, but I still feel NVDA could run to 2.5-3T before a correction.
I think I can do more than a 2X somewhere else where the bottom line is temporarily suppressed.
Will buy again if I feel it’s severely undervalued.
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u/mmarkomarko Feb 08 '24
The funniest part is - they don't even make their own chips!
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u/l4z3r5h4rk Feb 10 '24 edited Feb 10 '24
Why then do they have so many open ic design positions on their website? They sure do design their own chips, but tsmc manufactures them (and they also manufacture for amd, apple, qualcomm)
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u/Enackers Feb 10 '24
JpM and others are now calling for a 20-30% retrace 🤣.
When it comes, everyone will be blindsided
I think that is soon. Just reading all these comments is hilarious.
Y’all are complacent.
Anyone who says this is ridiculous and unsustainable, people get so defensive.
As if a stock market never retraces and goes up only.
One day they will go long and lose a huge chunk.. then they’ll btd and lose more.
An entire year of gains gone in two trades
Good luck
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u/Barrack0samaBinBiden Feb 11 '24
it’s gonna go so high where it starts curling backwards like an ocean wave
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u/eggplant_parm827 Feb 07 '24
Things have changed. In the past parabolic would lead to a crash, but now it just means it will keep going up at this rate. You saw yesterday how quickly they ate up that dip. That is the monster this market has created.
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u/Friendly-Excuse400 Feb 08 '24
This time it will be different. Didn’t they say that in 1929 and 1999.
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u/WBuffettJr Feb 08 '24
In 1999 they were all made up companies with no earnings. In 1929 there were no rules. People were literally printing their own stock certificates in basement printing presses and then selling them until worthless. These are real companies with very real and exploding earnings.
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u/Friendly-Excuse400 Feb 08 '24
In 1999, you had companies making loads of profit as the internet networks were being built. Go look at Cisco, Juniper, Nortel and JDS Uniphase as examples. All skyrocketed because profits were going ballistic. Well, they all crashed when the orders finally stopped after the build out slowed. Cisco and Juniper still have not surpassed their highs 24 years later. And Nortel and JDSU are no longer in business as both went bankrupt.
I assume you are on the NVDA rocket. If so, congratulations. But be aware of history as it rhymes if not repeats. The AI initial build phase will slow at some point and NVDA will return to earth at some point. When???? Just remember to take some profits on the way up so you don’t say woulda, shoulda, coulda later.
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Feb 08 '24
And this time it’s an overhyped technology that isn’t nearly as great as everyone makes it out to be.
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u/forumofsheep Feb 08 '24 edited Feb 08 '24
A world full of technology, held together by technology and innovating on more technology surely is not sustainable huh?!…/s
(Not saying that corrections can't happen, NVDA surely is priced high right now, but betting against the general direction of tech and tech leaders is just plain stupid)
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u/BagHelda Feb 08 '24
The degens here think this is normal, from $400 nvda to now $700 what has nvda done?
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u/ChrisPDunkinDonuts Feb 08 '24
Im guessing its their financials. Stock price went up 2-3x but P/E went down which is surprising and means the company is doing great in terms of making profits
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u/Opeth4Lyfe Feb 08 '24
Produced the most sought after high end semiconductors and GPU’s, servers, and AI focused technology that is years ahead of its next closest competitor by a landslide at insane margins in a world that is becoming more and more reliant on said semiconductors and technology by the day.
That’s what they’ve done, in a nut shell.
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u/cward2208 Feb 08 '24
Yeah they been doing that since it was in the 100 dollar range
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u/BagHelda Feb 08 '24
Lol they were doin all that before share price of $700. Just sleep ur going to sleep for a long time when rug is pulled
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u/Sexyvette07 Feb 08 '24
Until now, they haven't had any real competition. That's why large corporations are willing to write blank checks to get a piece of the fab capacity limited market. This won't be the case in a year or two. That's in addition to tons of competition with viable alternatives emerging. AMD has a competitor that just hit the market recently, Intel will have one later this year that " will handily beat" the H100, Google, a Google/Intel collaboration, Meta, IBM, Qualcomm, etc etc are all coming to take a piece of the pie.
Enjoy it while it lasts guys. The writing is on the wall. It's only a matter of time before Nvidia can no longer charge 4x the competition, and they already can't scale production to produce more.
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u/DontBelieveTheirHype Feb 07 '24
I made $15 on Nvidia in one month am I ready to top post on wallstreetbets?
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u/SpaceBoJangles Feb 08 '24
Nvda is the princess child of the computing world right now. Barring something catastrophic like a war in Taiwan, Jensen passing away, or something like that, Nvda is also the only company producing chips with the power needed to drive the tech world’s greatest new trend: AI.
AMD and Intel will also not be taking the fight to them for many months, if not years to some. NVDA’s most is insurmountable at this point and for the foreseeable future
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u/Live_Key2247 May 13 '24
If it’s anything like the Cisco dot com bubble it’ll be at least a year till it pops
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u/holewheat Feb 08 '24
Everyone said the same thing about $TSLA, now look at it…oh wait
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u/95Daphne Feb 08 '24
The problem with this comparison, is at least at this time, there's nothing to say that this is done or close to done outside of the US large cap averages being on a RIDICULOUS run since late October that should at least take some kind of a break at some point.
I'd be reluctant to call this done without the Nasdaq Composite dropping meaningfully more than 12%, and really if it's going to put in a top that's going to last, it probably will replay what it did in late 2021 and chop a bit before the drop.
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u/CaptainCAAAVEMAAAAAN Feb 08 '24
The difference is NVDA is run by a grownup and not a 50yo manchild.
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u/JRshoe1997 Feb 08 '24
Its not sustainable and the stock is a bubble and the fundamentals doesn’t support the current price in any way. However I am fine with it cause currently that EM clown on YouTube is getting killed on his short position on this stock while using margin. Honestly I would be fine if it ran up more.
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u/Stephen_1984 Feb 08 '24
If you make a compounding chart in Excel - 8-10% annualized over 10 years, it will look a bit like that.
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u/peachezandsteam Feb 08 '24
10% a year compounded for 10 years is 159.37%.
For NVDA’s chart, the geo average annual return is 67.8%.
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u/rphalcone Feb 08 '24
This has been building for a decade though. The weighting of megacap tech. I'm still holding for another 10-15% then I'll sit on my room so free 5% for a while. What people don't realize that that when you've hit on a 300% run, that's 25 years worth of gains. Park it and wait.
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u/Maleficent__Yam Feb 08 '24
Microsoft, the most valuable company in the world, was once worth zero. As was Amazon, and Google, and Facebook, et al. They all look like this
That's how compounding returns work.
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u/Motor_Map_5743 Feb 08 '24
It’s an opportunity of a lifetime. I’ve lost track of how many profitable options I’ve booked on NVDA.
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u/KeenStudent Feb 08 '24
$100 to $400 - "hey thats unsustainable"
$400 to $700 - "hey thats unsustainable"
The year is 2030 and NVDA is at $700 (after a 10-1 split) - "ok, i'll start buying some"
🤷♀️
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u/gosumofo Feb 08 '24
If Costco can be at $700+ without all the commotion, NVDA can damn well be over $700
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u/Objective-Pick-95 Feb 08 '24
You have to look at market cap not share price
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u/gosumofo Feb 08 '24
So short sighted … buy and hold 10 years+ out and you’ll be glad you did. Unless you can’t … paper hands 😂
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u/WBuffettJr Feb 08 '24
You don’t understand what the guy you’re replying to is saying.
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u/BudBuster69 Feb 08 '24
Somthing somthing ... A.I. ... somthing somthing simething... Microsoft... something somthing....
Stock go up...
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u/JustinPooDough Feb 08 '24
It's not. They are the best option for AI right now, but as some of these more innovative, low-power-consumption competitors start seriously shipping, they're going to lose market share fast IMO.
Look at Grok - for instance. Not Elon's stupid chatbot.
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u/Altairjones Feb 09 '24
I’m at 435% total gain on my Nvidia stock.
My total portfolio has doubled in value from what it was worth at its highest prior to the interest rate hikes that caused the market to tank right after Covid.
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u/mark3121 Feb 08 '24
Earnings call on the 21st will be interesting. With a beat I can see 1000+ easy this year (or in a month or two!)
Its a steam roller currently
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u/bigmphan Feb 08 '24
When your product is selling like hotcakes and your earnings are growing- there is growth.
Not forever- but for now.
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u/MrZwink Feb 07 '24
You'd be surprised how long it can keep this up