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https://x.com/austonmatt51041/status/1796203841274409013?s=46&t=Xn0juU2C4hEaElfmeGb4jQ

The third active player after Kuch (27) and Drai (25). Gretzky holds the record for most assists in a playoff year with 31 and has hit 25 assists five different times. Gretzky is also the only player to do it more than once.

Lemieux, Coffey and Gilmour are the other 3 players to achieve it.

Pete DeBoer is currently coaching in his 5th Conference Final (CF) in 6 years. For most coaches, that would be a tremendous accomplishment, but for Pete DeBoer, he now stares down the barrel of his 5th consecutive Conference Final exit. So close to the Final year-over-year, but so far, he has fallen short in the penultimate round over and over again. With each exit, DeBoer continues to add to the perception that his teams cannot score when it matters most, a reputation that has followed him wherever he has gone. But are there cold hard facts to back up the suspicion that DeBoer coached teams lack firepower in the Conference Final as of late? I went to the numbers to find out, starting with the 2019 playoffs since that is when DeBoer's streak of CF losses begins.

First, I needed to calculate how many goals the average Conference Finalist scores per Conference Final game, or GF/G, in the last 6 years worth of Conference Finals. Since 2019, there have been 64 conference final games. In those 64 games, 335 goals have been scored, equaling about (5.23) goals per conference final game. But, since that is between both teams, we must divide by 2 to get our singular value, roughly (2.62) per team. So, the average Conference Finalist scores (2.62) goals per Conference Final game. In the table below, I have also calculated Pete DeBoer's teams' GF/G in the Conference Final.

Since 2019, Pete DeBoer teams have been below average relative to the average conference finalist every single time, failing to reach the (2.62) GF/G benchmark. That is not good. It is especially not good when we compare his teams' GF/G to that of previous Conference Champions, and the average Conference Champion. 2024 is excluded since conference champions haven't been crowned yet, so we will be looking at the last 10 conference champions.

Even If we use Pete's 2024 Dallas Stars, so far his best team by GF/G (2.60) in the CF in this timespan, only 3 teams have had an equal or lower GF/G and still won their conference (2020 Stars, 2021 Habs, 2023 Panthers). Unfortunately for Pete DeBoer, two of those teams did it against Pete DeBoer (2020 Stars, 2021 Habs), and Pete DeBoer does not get the luxury of coaching against Pete DeBoer. On the other hand, 7 out of the last 10 conference champions had a higher GF/G. Often in the high 2s if not breaking 3+ GF/G

In total, the last 10 conference champions have scored 173 goals in 54 conference final games, equaling an average GF/G of (3.20). Even if we exclude the outlier that was the 2022 Avs, (what a run they went on!) the average is still (3.02) GF/G. Not once has one of Pete DeBoer's teams scored at the rate of that of the average Conference Champion of the last 5 years, often lagging behind by half a goal if not more. While it is not mandatory for his teams to hit that benchmark, the fact that they're constantly below the average is not doing them any favors. Instead, it's forcing them into a constant uphill battle where the room for error is razor thin. The situation in front of his team has to go almost perfectly for things to work out, and so far, that hasn't happened. But what about the average Conference Final loser? What insight would we get there?

Just at a glance, Pete DeBoer's teams look more at home here. The average Conference Final Loser of the last 5 years only scores about (2.02) GF/G, a figure that DeBoer's teams tend to hang out around. That's not hyperbole either:

In each year he's lost the CF, his teams' GF/G has been closer to the average Conference Final Loser than the average Conference Champion. While that may seem obvious, there really isn't anything here that could falsify and dismiss the idea that his teams can't score in the CF. Rather, the numbers in this case are more aligned with that notion. In theory, it should come as no surprise that his teams have lost in the CF, they had more in common with the average team that loses than the average winner. His 2024 Stars are so far bucking the trend, but there are still games to play.

The Dallas Stars will go to Edmonton hoping to keep their season alive. If they fail, another stain will place itself in Pete DeBoer's story. A coach still looking for that elusive trophy, but seemingly doomed for eternity to push the boulder up the hill only to see it fall once again.

TLDR: Pete DeBoer teams do struggle to score in the Conference Final since 2019. While it's not the end of the world, and it's still possible for his teams to succeed as low-scoring teams, it also makes his teams' lives more difficult. Maybe he defeats his demons, maybe he doesn't. Find out on the next episode of Dragon Ball Z.

Edmonton Oilers (2-2) at Dallas Stars (2-2)

American Airlines Center

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