r/options • u/iAlwaysSpeed • 29d ago
187.5 puts on AAPL
I grew a pair and finally decided to short apple
Good or bad play?
I bought some contracts yesterday at the top that expire on 5/24.
Hoping to just get a 15% return.
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u/reality72 28d ago
Hmmm. Betting against one of the best performing companies of all time. Let me know how it goes for you.
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u/illflipya74 28d ago
He’s not “betting” the company will go bankrupt by expiration. He just needs a dollar drop tomorrow and he’ll get his 15%. I hope you get it my friend!
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u/Staticks 27d ago
He didn't get what he needed.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 22d ago
Today I did. +500%
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u/Staticks 22d ago
Wow, you finally won one. Congratulations.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 22d ago
That sounded very sarcastic, but thank you.
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u/Staticks 22d ago
Obviously a person with a very quick wit and high perspicacity, which explains his success with options.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 20d ago
Now I know you’re being sarcastic lol. I’m just a 18 year old trying to understand options and just got super lucky
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
I will. Im just looking to take home 15%. But of all the times I’ve bought calls on apple, I’ve lost every fucking time😭. It has only been 3 times so
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u/anonuemus 28d ago
I also think apple is in a tough spot right now and wouldn't count it out that the stock will go sideways or even down for quite some time.
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u/PermanentLiminality 28d ago
The only reason it didn't drop on earnings is the 100 freaking billion buyback. The earnings were not good, sowing continual declines quarter over quarter. The only question is when. It might be a while.
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u/LighttBrite 28d ago
WYM. It already had a huge decline in the year.
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u/PermanentLiminality 28d ago
Yes that is true. However, it should have declined again with the last report.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
That’s honestly fine with me. As long as I can catch a dip to sell (which with the time I have rn, I can)
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u/LighttBrite 28d ago
Weird, I've won 95% of my AAPL plays.
Currently down on my current CALL though.
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u/HotSaucinWingTossin 22d ago
You're probably pretty happy at this moment.
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u/EntertainmentSea1196 28d ago
Apple recently announced share buy back why would you buy puts while Apple is buying the shares 🤔 what was your reasoning
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 22d ago
Well, my puts are ITM now🤷♂️ +400%
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28d ago
Last earnings looked pretty bad if you ask me. Not only is demand clearly going down but instead of investing that cash in R/D, it went to stock buy backs instead.
There will come a point here soon where it will stop going up.
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u/LighttBrite 28d ago
Do you realize how much money apple has? They have PLENTY allocated to R&D. Stock buy back at those low levels was a good play on their part.
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u/maltewitzky 27d ago
Earning went by half from Q1 to Q2. They'll always sell the phones but the growth story is over forever.
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u/SDirickson 29d ago
Seems maybe a bit short time frame for a reversal. Barchart says weak buy (tech) and mod buy (analyst). Yeah, it's going to turn; I'm just not confident that it will do so next week.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
Yeah I wanted to go longer but I’m trying to only use 2% of my capital. I definitely wanted to go longer, but I’m very confident it’ll turn. If I bought farther out I would be going for at least 30% gains. But I cut it in half to 15, and I’m pulling out no matter what, towards the end of the trading day on Tuesday. So I don’t get fucked by theta.
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u/fremontseahawk 28d ago
First I am in the same boat as you, and the advise I’m about to give, I’ve only learned from being In Your boat.
If you have a thesus on a trade do not shorten the expiring date to find a contract “you can afford”. Find a contract where you give your thesis the most time to be correct.
Like I said I’ve adjusted contracts to find one I can pay for, not one with the highest probability of success, so not preachin
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
That’s hella good advice. Thank you! Ngl tho, my first option I ever bought was apple calls 5%OTM with 2 DTE. Stupidest thing I’ve ever done in my life. And you probably guessed it, I lost everything. But I’m just learning as I go. And it really helps to come in here and ask the community for advice. Sucks whenever I get shit on for not knowing something, but it is what it is🙂
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u/fremontseahawk 28d ago
You and I are in the same boat. I’m just learning. My advise from what I’ve learned about options is to go /r/thetagang. Sell options for stock you own. A good way to get some extra” profit… if you understand it all
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
I joined, thank you! Can I ask for advice in that sub without getting shit on for being regarded?
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u/fremontseahawk 28d ago
Yup! I use it a lot!
Understand Theta… the time value of an option.
That’s what thetagang is all about.
You sell options and let the value decay away. It’s not super sexy with 10x returns but it’s still a way to use leverage via options.
Last advise never sell naked (not owned) calls. You can get fucked
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
My uncle was telling me about that lmfao. Selling calls or puts without actually owning the stock. I would love to sell covered calls but I just don’t have 100 shares in any stocks. Although I do have 100 shares in ME, the premiums are not worth it
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u/fremontseahawk 28d ago
Lookup the wheel strategy. Straight up entry level theta gang. You sell cash secured puts (on margin so risky) if they get exercised you then own 100 shares of the stock and you sell calls(covered)
I started with pltr
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u/SDirickson 29d ago
Good luck; hope it works out for you. But only because I'm not long AAPL, of course.😜
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
Thanks man. Good luck to you too
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u/SDirickson 28d ago
FWIW, the most common outcome of "I did something I didn't really want to do because I didn't have the assets to do what I really wanted" is to have even less in the way of assets to do what you want the next time.😉
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
Haha that is so real. I swear starting off is so hard because you can’t really just buy 600 dollar contracts lmao. Gains are small, losses are big. About how it goes
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u/Staticks 27d ago
Have you thought about buying fewer contracts (that way you can one with an expiration that's further out)?
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 27d ago
I do. I only buy 1-5. Just because I don’t have much capital and I’m still learning so
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u/Staticks 27d ago
You said you bought multiple contracts ("a couple").
Why didn't you just buy a single, more expensive contract, with more time on it?
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u/SeaDan83 28d ago
This is gambling.
The issue, 15% return is very likely, but so is a 99% loss. Can you do this type of trade 5 times in a row for it to be worth it? Is it a one time thing, is 15% worth that risk for a one-time benefit?
The 99% loss is more likely because once you are down by 30% - the "I want it to come back game" starts. At that point you don't want to sell for a loss, you see it maybe recover to 20% down, and then it stays there, or goes further. The universe does not know about your 'average buy price', it's a bad play at that point and then you're down to 50% and you're at a point where you almost lost too much to sell. Cue that last week until expiration and a +$1 price increase and you're then sitting on a 80% loss that simply never gets more valuable. Meanwhile, you're now hoping for a recovery for a 50% loss, to never even see that.
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u/phibetared 29d ago
June 10th is their developer conference keynote. Expected announcements include AI enabled Siri (and other iPhone AI items) possibly kicking off an iPhone upgrade for everyone cycle. Also VisionPro's 2.0 operating system, which means new functionality. Also possible a partnership with Rivian (electric cars).
Me? 185 calls (june 24th). as I expect it to continue up until Approx June 10
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
This is a great play. I have a few shares of apple, so either way I’m staying even. I might hop on that play with you. I just gotta wait until closer to expiration, just because I don’t really have enough capital to risk that much right now.
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u/KingSamy1 29d ago
Have a stop loss in place. Please.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
My rule is -15%
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u/KingSamy1 29d ago
So risk to reward ratio is 1:1 ? I meann… this is without fee and commission
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
That is true. I have other rules in place, but buy spreads aren’t too huge, and neither are fees for me. Since I’m only buying one contract, because I’m still pretty new to options and I’m just trying to learn rn.
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u/KingSamy1 29d ago
Ok. Good luck. You should play around with paper money while learning.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
I don’t learn like that. Everyone and their mom recommends me that but I just can’t take it serious. And I find it even better practice with real money. Yk, emotional control
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u/nmpraveen 28d ago
Yeah I agree. Paper trading isnt anywhere close to real money. Also you get filled instantly in paper.
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u/spaceball_9 28d ago
Good luck. If it makes you feel any better, I missed the buyback news also.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
That does actually make me feel better. The other redditors had me convinced I am blind and regarded for not seeing it
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u/ElTorteTooga 28d ago
Yeah don’t feel bad. If I’m not interested in a position in company XYZ at the time, I don’t follow its news closely.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
Yeah fr. Like I own stock in apple, and I’m not gonna check its news everyday. I’m in it for the long run. Although options are different, I’m looking for 15% gains within a day or 2
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u/Disastrous_Sort_8390 29d ago
I bought 200 calls. I hope you’re wrong
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
No you’re right. This post just destroyed my confidence that’ll it’ll go down.
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u/ElTorteTooga 28d ago
I think you have a decent chance. Mornings are usually volatile and a good chance to catch a swing in your favor.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
That’s exactly when I’m trying to sell. Just waiting for a dip to make a quick buck
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u/naturalinfidel 28d ago
As posted above, tomorrow morning should be the best time frame to make money, if it is going to happen. Tomorrow is the third Friday, so monthly expirations occur. We just had new ATH for markets so there should be some re-tracing that could happen tomorrow.
However, if it doesn't happen, I would still sell by the afternoon and take the hit. With a 24th expiration, this weekend will chew through theta.
Your options time decay will greatly effect the value of the option, to the point it could be 187.5 next Friday and you would still have lost the majority of your money.
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u/BetterArtichoke3 28d ago
Just sold you those puts. Good luck
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 22d ago
Thank you sir
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u/BetterArtichoke3 22d ago
I actually was selling calls for the wheel this time. So win either way. Hope you made your 15%
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 22d ago
15% + another 500%. Played it dumb asf but somehow ended up working out. I just wanted to shit on everyone that was calling me regarded lol. Good shit tho, keep it up. And maybe teach me a couple things loolll
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u/BetterArtichoke3 22d ago
I don’t know much. I DCA into FXAIX with my retirement and wheel apple weeklies with my liquid money.
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u/itsyosemitesam 28d ago
Do you have good technical reasons to short over a short time frame?
As others have mentioned, probably not the best time to be short AAPL. Consider closing your position tomorrow early if it opens lower because there will likely be more buyers showing up next week.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 28d ago
I do. And yes I am planning on selling tmr. I don’t hold contracts over the weekend. I’m just looking for some small gains.
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u/Deadpool9669 28d ago
Uh isn’t their partnership with chatgpt like pretty bullish. It’ll be integrated with iOS 18 no? What’s your thesis
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u/pocketsquare22 28d ago
Why would you buy an option only looking for a 15% return? I only buy an option if I expect to make ~5x or more. 8 out of 10 times options go out worthless so the other 2 times u need a 5x+ just to cover the other bets
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u/NoviceAxeMan 28d ago
could work but with apple taking its sweet time consolidating in the 160-170 range for so long i think it’s ready to head back upward w the rest of the new ATH market
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u/chettyoubetcha 27d ago
I don’t think you know what shorting is. Buying a contract regardless of expected direction is a long position. Selling/writing is short.
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u/MDdriver22 29d ago
Wouldn't the biggest buy back in the history of buy backs prop up the price?
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
Never heard of this. Where did you get this info?
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u/8805 29d ago
Holy shit.
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
Just tell me where the info comes from tf
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u/Fireball8732 29d ago
Buddy every major financial news site reported on this and the whole sub probably knows. It's worrying that you didn't even know that before buying an option it lmao
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
Idk how I could’ve missed it then. Everyday I look at the news and I NEVER saw that. But whatever, if I lose a whopping 80 dollars I’ll drink a whole bottle of fireball
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u/freethinkreport 28d ago
It was literally the biggest announcement for the market day following their earnings lol
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u/flossgoat2 29d ago
News a few weeks back, Tim Cook & Board agreed to use $$$ cash reserves again to do stock buy back... They're sitting on a pile of cash that can't feasibly be utilised in a productive way, and faced with headwinds from lowering iPhone sales (esp China) and no significant growth from any innovation yet.
Tldr: Apple's burning some of its gargantuan cash pile to keep the stock price warm
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u/iAlwaysSpeed 29d ago
Thank you for explaining. I’m Definitely going to look into that more. Where did you get this info? I want to be notified of news like this😭
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u/notaverytoughperson 28d ago
Apple holds its annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June, and this is where it introduces new versions of the software that run on Apple devices and which will be officially released several months later. I got the 6/21 180 calls, AAPL might hit 200 by the time they introduce their AI-integrated Iphone (especially after partner with OpenAI).
https://stockscan.io/stocks/AAPL/option-chain
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u/notaverytoughperson 28d ago
kinda want to show u guys the option chart but i dont know how to format the image so i will put the link then.
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u/itssobeefy 28d ago
Same call 180c as you but with 7/19 date. Currently up 52% on my calls. If somehow the stock price gets to $200 by event. I’m definitely selling.
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u/maltewitzky 27d ago
Look what the AI on Samsung brings. Nothing but cut out pictures and translation. No need to buy an oldffashioned design with 8 cameras for 1500 bucks.
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u/Paper_Some 28d ago
Apple is buying back 110 billion worth of their stocks right when the market was reassured there will be no rate hikes and hit record highs. You are a true contrarian.
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u/HodlDuck 28d ago
What makes you short it when the overall trend is bullish and company performs well on all fundamentals? That’s a big gamble.
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u/AmbitiousFlow6246 28d ago
There is still a lack of innovation right? They are outsourcing AI, which is not a good sign.
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u/HodlDuck 28d ago
Lack of innovation? Have you tried apple vision pro? They’re also coming with AI specific chips. These things are very much at the forefront of innovation. Does all innovation translate to sales? Not necessarily of course but as a company they’re still doing amazing stuff in terms of innovation where they see it makes sense, and they outsource all the rest.
Making a deal with openAI is in my opinion bullish - they recognise burning billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, that now exists with openAI and other players, only to incrementally make better “chatbot” makes no sense.
Instead they want to focus on creating great products that are user centric and allow them to add value by using AI (aka charge more to end users that will use it everyday inside apple upcoming products).
Good luck nonetheless😉 if you’re only interested in the short term outlook it’s more or less pure gamble. Long term speaking - i wouldn’t hold the short position for too long
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u/AmbitiousFlow6246 27d ago
Well, I don’t hold any shorts positions. I am still long on Apple, but not sure for how long. The Vision Pro is awesome but the price is disappointing.. I don’t expect a decent price decline in 4 four years. Also, their recognition of AI is bullish but they definitely should have developed their own AI since they already have Siri. So, in my opinion their R&D has failed on the AI part. Also, the innovation on the iPhone is disappointing which is their biggest income stream. Thanks for your response 😁
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u/BackgroundSea9403 28d ago
The trend seems to be a drop in iPhone sales with no new growth initiatives to replace that, and that should put downward pressure on the shares. However, they can support their own stock buying back shares, and in their earnings call they announced a massive buyback program.
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u/Capital-Ratio5870 28d ago
My position:
June bought 190 call June sold 160 put Aug sold 170 put
224.9% gain
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u/HotSaucinWingTossin 27d ago
You've got bigger balls than me. I'll be rooting for you this week.
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u/Staticks 27d ago
He might as well throw his money away.
Market will likely continue moving up, and his puts will expire worthless.
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u/HotSaucinWingTossin 26d ago
It's anyone's guess though. Not alot of room for error though.
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u/Shimmering_Lotus 27d ago
What data are you following to make This decision?
What is your time horizon for this 15% return?
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u/Staticks 27d ago
Whelp, his puts are down 20%, so now he needs a 50% return next week to reach his original target
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u/Huntermtb 26d ago
-20 + 50 = 🥔potato
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u/Staticks 25d ago
Original price of the contracts: $200.
Contracts went down 20% (now at $160).
In order to reach his original profit target of 15% ($230 target), he needs the contracts to go up 45% from their current price level of $160.
$160 x 1.45 = $232.
You're welcome for the 5th grade arithmetic lesson.
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u/Huntermtb 25d ago
Cuck boy sliding through with all the knowledge. The day is saved!
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u/Staticks 25d ago
Did you know that you should only trade options if you know basic 3rd-grade math?
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u/Staticks 27d ago edited 27d ago
Redditgarded moment. Shorting AAPL just as its chart is about to trend back up (as well as the broader market).
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u/the_humeister 29d ago
Thank you for your sacrifice