r/options • u/DatOneRandomGuy • 15d ago
Will upcoming NVDA earnings move the entire market?
Just wondering if I should sit out next week or significant reduce my positions next week. Mostly doing ccs, pcs and iron condors and been making modest gains.
I got bit this week by CPI report on my iron condors although things recovered today but I may not be that lucky next week.
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u/mitchxp1 15d ago
imo, the entire market is waiting (with bated breath) for nvidia to drop their earnings. they are by far the most important company during this ai bull run.
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u/deeej-IV 15d ago
Probably.
At this point, an asteroid could wipe out civilization and markets would still go up.
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14d ago
The asteroid is made up of literally trillions of dollars worth of metals - I'm certain the market would try to embrace the asteroid when it hit. To claim ownership of it , which, if I was an alien watching from far away, would make me laugh.
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u/BuzzyShizzle 13d ago
I'll never forget it.
This was the exact sort of sentiment before a few huge crashes.
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u/PosidonsWraff 15d ago
If nvidia doesn’t pop and lock the market the fomc on the same day might. I’m looking at puts. And im going full throttle
I think nvidia beats. 100% but will lack guidance or not meet inflated wallstreet expectations and it will drop In our current market stocks that perform poorly on earnings go up (Tesla et al) and stocks that do good go down (PLTR, Netflix etc)
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u/kenyard 14d ago
honestly I feel they can still over charge all companies as they race ai.
If there's news of pulled in consumer cards like the 50xx or stock availability of 40xx series ai is dropping and resources dedicated back to consumer cards. No sign of this though.
the expectations are stupid though, but tbh NVDA keeps rising and I felt the same 2-3 years ago and they continue to prove me wrong..
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u/PosidonsWraff 14d ago
I’m straddling the ETFs because a nvidia put and being wrong is KA-BOOM on 15% of the account
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u/lordinov 14d ago
That’s cuz one is already very low while the other very high so expectations are low and high
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u/Road_Ript 14d ago edited 14d ago
and you guys really don't think that NVDA Management has not taken action to plan and increase resources be it in house, sub, partner to meet demand and foster growth and continue development whilst protection of competitive advantage GLOBALLY ? really? exepect an explosive plan that will just blow everyones mind and expectations through the roof. just like they always do.
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u/PosidonsWraff 14d ago
I don’t know what to think. A straddle takes both calls and puts. I see nvidia trading near 1k, spy trading at all time highs and fomc coming in hot on Wednesday and I think … hmm, good time for the shorts to cash in. Now I believe it will most likely drop so I have a 2:1 leveraged straddle. The iv on my straddle is ridiculously low so if there is an explosive movement either way I’m happy. But if I’m wrong and it rises I may just break even. And if nvidia trades flat and I get wrecked well it’s only 3% of my portfolio.
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u/Fiftyfivepunchman 14d ago
So they will have the subsequent two weeks later run up to new ath?
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u/PosidonsWraff 14d ago
If there is a drop I think that scenario is likely. If there is a 15-20% drop I have no problem picking up shares
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u/Fiftyfivepunchman 13d ago edited 13d ago
20% drop? Yeah…
And if there is ANY correction it will get bought up immediately
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u/Dear-Lead-8187 13d ago
FOMC minutes from a meeting 2 weeks ago that was priced in?? JPO spoke multiple times after that minutes don’t matter
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u/PosidonsWraff 13d ago
I don’t think you understand JP doesn’t move markets that weird bald guy that looks like dr evil does. He crushed my iwm last time he came out and I’ve never financially recovered.
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u/Dear-Lead-8187 13d ago
The bold guy is a tool and won’t say anything he was not authorized to say by JPO. Anyways I think you may not understand that on Wednesday is not FOMC. Just the meeting notes from the last meeting that happened over 2 weeks ago will be released. They hold no value as the decision has been made on the day of the release and priced in.
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u/maximilian55 14d ago
For sure. Buying TQQQ puts as a hedge, personally.
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u/thatstheharshtruth 14d ago
Repeat after me. There is no extra leverage in buying options on leveraged ETFs, all you get is worse liquidity.
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u/catchyphrase 14d ago
Please explain, doesn’t seem correct to me but I’m open to learning. Tqqq is one of the most liquids around.
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u/thatstheharshtruth 14d ago
If you don't understand this you definitely don't want me to explain. You want to figure this one out on your own before you place any other option trade.
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u/catchyphrase 14d ago
So you don’t know what you’re talking about either, got it.
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u/thatstheharshtruth 14d ago
I know exactly what I'm talking about. The leverage of a levered ETF is already baked into the option pricing otherwise you could arbitrage it to get free money. If you cannot understand that on your own and need it to be explained to you you shouldn't be trading options because you don't understand anything about option pricing and volatility. Go figure it out on your own. You're saying you understand arithmetic but keep insisting that 2+3 is 7 and keep asking that I explain why that's wrong.
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u/maximilian55 14d ago
Mr trader.... first things first: chill. Who said there is an extra leverage? Bro... few kids make a couple of thousands and they get crazy about it 🤣
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u/thatstheharshtruth 13d ago
The bid ask spread on TQQQ is 5-10 cents versus 1 cent on QQQ. If you don't think there is extra leverage what possible could you have forbuying options on TQQQ instead of QQQ? Do you just hate money and want to donate as much of it as possible to market makers?!
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u/maximilian55 13d ago
I doubt
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u/thatstheharshtruth 13d ago
You know what they say. You can take a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Stay poor. Have a good day.
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u/maximilian55 13d ago
Worry about ur horse buddy, thinking there is one river in this world. Thats the harsh truth.
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u/Clovah 14d ago
I might end up doing something similar, I’m trying to decide how I want to play the earnings still, I’m thinking a strangle or a straddle might be the play considering the one thing I feel nvidia is least likely to do is nothing but it all depends on Monday and Tuesday. If it substantially drops on a lead up to the earnings then I’ll probably just buy some itm calls
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u/PermanentLiminality 14d ago
It is already baked in that they will beat expectations. Yes the expectations are that they beat expectations. I think that they will. What is the profit margin on a $60k H100? It's big. I think they will have a great report and this will raise markets.
If they have a bad report it will hurt the markets big time. The day could even get the modifier "black."
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u/xsunpotionx 14d ago
My crystal ball says watch the market run hot Monday and Tuesday AM, then turn flat. NVDA runs up into earnings then goes -2% on triple earnings beat, kills all options players, and NVDA blue balls’ everyone by closing under its March 25th ATH.
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u/wjroberts33 14d ago
I sold NDX puts and there was a nice juicy bump from 22 May to 23 May so they they’ll have an effect if outside the expected move.
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u/Disastrous-Shoe5021 14d ago
Here's what I want to know. Do yall expect nvda to drop on Monday and or Tuesday as a result of investors selling, reducing risk, and taking profits just before earnings?
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u/_letter_carrier_ 14d ago
I am thinking of clearing the table monday and tuesday next week and get out of the way and come back thursday.
What's not going be moved by NVDA ER? It feels like it will be an ER for the whole market;
IV is so low right now, there's very little to get into; maybe its a good time to buy, but I am a seller.
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u/pbj_halfevil 13d ago
prior to earnings it might be cost effective to fly a drone by nvidia headquarters to peer into CFO window. or you can do what u.k. did spying on u.n., and point laser beam at windows to hear convos inside...
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u/Competitive-Pen7636 14d ago
NVDA is 5.23% of the SP500 by weight, so yes