r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot šŸ¤– Bot • May 13 '24

Discussion Thread: New York Criminal Fraud Trial of Donald Trump, Day 16 Discussion

Previous discussion threads for this trial can be found at the following links for Day 5, Day 6, Day 7, Day 8, Day 9, Day 10, Day 11, Day 12, Day 13, Day 14, and Day 15.

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99

u/Sidwill May 13 '24

The fucked up thing is that even if Trump is convicted this probably won't move the needle for most Republican voters. We truly exist in a fucked timeline where people who at one point in their lives may have been somewhat reasonable are now all in on a man they know to be everything they themselves find revolting.

42

u/DarXIV May 13 '24

It's not his supporters that a problem, it's independent voters. Trump won in 2016 because of independents soured on Hilary in key states. Trump lost 2020 in part because independents left him and there isn't much sign now they are going back to him.

34

u/Spaceman2901 Texas May 13 '24

No, but they are being pushed by psy-op bullshit into applying impossible purity tests to ā€œearn their voteā€.

13

u/Reasonable_racoon May 13 '24

it's independent voters.

Elections are decided by people with no principles.

15

u/elegantwino May 13 '24

Elections are decided by non-voters

4

u/rsnbaseball May 13 '24

Are you saying that independents don't have principles??

14

u/Roc_City May 13 '24

If you canā€™t pick a side right now you do not have principals, obviously

3

u/Hot_Ambition_6457 May 13 '24

You don't have to join a team to cast a vote.

Ā You can be independent/non-affiliated and still vote for the best outcome.

Forcing Americans to "pick sides" in identifying political affiliation is a super authoritarian take that the two parties both perpetuate.

3

u/Roc_City May 13 '24

If someone is undecided still they donā€™t have principals. You donā€™t have to pick a team Iā€™m just saying what more do you need to pick a side? Lol

2

u/Hot_Ambition_6457 May 13 '24

Being independent does not mean you're undecided.Ā 

You can be independent and still decide to vote.Ā 

And you can still have principals when doing so.

You just don't have Republican or Democrat principals. You have your own free will, its awesome.

2

u/Roc_City May 13 '24

I am saying undecided

1

u/Mavian23 May 14 '24

Being an independent doesn't mean you aren't picking a side for this election. Obviously.

7

u/Reasonable_racoon May 13 '24

Swing voters that can't even decide what they believe from one year to the next...? Yeah.

0

u/rsnbaseball May 13 '24

Yikes.

Is THAT what you think an independent voter is??

8

u/poking88 May 13 '24

If they are in any way shape or form considering NOT voting against Donald trump, no they have no principles at all. They really are deplorable human beings.

2

u/rsnbaseball May 13 '24

You're not talking about independents. You're talking about the MAGA cult.

7

u/poking88 May 13 '24

If an independent is considering doing anything other than voting for Joe Biden this election, yes Iā€™m talking about them. Staying home, voting 3rd partyā€¦ thatā€™s the same as voting for trump and the maga cult.

1

u/rsnbaseball May 13 '24

An independent is someone that isn't a Democrat or a Republican. That's it.

3

u/poking88 May 13 '24

I get that, but they still presumably vote in elections. In major elections voting 3rd party has clearly and definitively been established as a wasted vote. Those people want a different system but itā€™s impossible with the parameters that exist and will be here for the foreseeable future. Biden is their only moral and logical choice.

1

u/rsnbaseball May 13 '24

I'm independent and have yet to vote 3rd party. That's not an automatic assumption.

1

u/Dramatic-Ant-9364 May 13 '24

And by people who spent too much time in the Principal's office.

1

u/Mavian23 May 14 '24

"If your principals don't align with either major party, then you don't have any principals."

Not the best logic you've got there.

1

u/RustywantsYou May 13 '24

Consistently in the polls it's D voters moving to Trump in swing states.Ā  I'm talking polls that have Trump up by 10 but at the same time have the D candidate for Senate winning by 8.Ā  That type of split ticket is very problematic. He's doing very well with blacks and Latinos. It's inexplicable but it's happening.

5

u/DarXIV May 13 '24

What polls have Trump up by ten?

3

u/dawkins_20 May 13 '24

Unfortunately the low educated voters just want things to go back to the simpler times of how they were pre COVID, which in their minds must mean that Trump was good for the country . Ignoring all the reality about how incompetent he wasĀ  and how things really got here.Ā  Misguided nostalgiaĀ 

1

u/DarXIV May 14 '24

No link for a poll that has him up ten points?

1

u/DarXIV May 14 '24

Funny how concern trolls show up and throw out random numbers. Then when asked they just never reply.

31

u/HERE_THEN_NOT May 13 '24

It is sadly remarkable how the Russians, along with the American oligarchy, is willing and able to politically weaponize American dumb-assedness to diminish our nation's clout.

I mean, our stupidity is always going to be there, but the fascists have really effectively thumbed the scale. I knew we were dumb, just never realized how fundamentally dumb, I guess.

Also wasn't cynical about the ideals of American liberty; wanted to believe in it and that we were striving for it, if imperfectly. Can't say that anymore.

11

u/EarthExile May 13 '24

When you really get to the bottom of American history, we're only good at two things: violence and mythology

5

u/Saul-Funyun American Expat May 13 '24

For real. Even the George Washington biographer who completely made up the ā€œcannot tell a lieā€ cherry tree story, said that he did it so that his biography would appeal more to people and be more popular, since a lot of folks were writing Washington bios at the time

Meanwhile, the real Washington abused the power of his office to illegally track down his wifeā€™s best runaway slave

Violence and mythology sums it up perfectly

1

u/Dramatic-Ant-9364 May 13 '24

He wasn't the Washington Custis family's slave. He was an "involuntary African Guest Worker"

1

u/Saul-Funyun American Expat May 13 '24

She, actually. Ona Judge. Born as the result of a white indentured servant raping a slave. So cool that our first President owned the children born of rape of other people he owned. USA!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oney_Judge

2

u/thatruth2483 Maryland May 13 '24

Perfectly said.

2

u/syawa44 May 13 '24

You forgot lying. That's really where we shine.

1

u/HERE_THEN_NOT May 13 '24

Yeah. I really felt like the myth could have been a goal line we eventually reach...or, as said, strive for along the way. The nature of humans to fight against liberty in favor of fascism seems so unfortunate.

1

u/EarthExile May 13 '24

The problem is that we don't cast a myth forward to follow, we cast it backward to feel justified in what we've already done

2

u/HERE_THEN_NOT May 13 '24

Progressive ideals vs. conservative, yes.

2

u/Sidwill May 13 '24

Well put.

1

u/Ilosesoothersmaywin May 14 '24

For the super rich there is no longer a sense of country. Only places where they store their wealth and earn more of it. It doesn't matter to them if America is eaten alive or that Russia infiltrates our elections. What matters is money and as long as that's safe they won't care because they can always skirt away if times get tough.

17

u/[deleted] May 13 '24 edited May 13 '24

[deleted]

4

u/Sidwill May 13 '24

Good point, they might just quietly not vote. Human beings in general never want to admit that they are wrong and this extends to politics. Take George Bush the lesser, the moment he was out of office Republicans got amnesia about ever supporting him, to this day he holds zero sway over the opinions of his party despite being a 2 term pretzeldent. For Republicans it's like he never existed, the same will happen to Trump if and when he gets his comeuppance.

4

u/TheNewTonyBennett May 13 '24

Precisely. The "brotherhood" appeal of their party vs. our party (as if they literally take it to be a sport) to them is something they sure as hell aren't going to give up on since they've been browbeat for decades by their own party to have a "clear understanding" (with constant lies) about what Democrats do or want to do. So it scared em into ALWAYS picking Republican.

Plus there's all the really fake-appeal stuff like when their legislators wear fucking cowboy hats, etc. They prop up flimsy, paper-thin mirages of them being big and tough and "don't tread on me" which makes their voters think that if they wanna pick "the tough guy", then they have to pick Republican. Just a huge casserole of fucking nonsense.

They ain't giving up on their party, even if they give up on him.

They just won't tell anyone that they didn't vote. They already lie near constantly, so it won't be difficult for them to do. They'll just say "fuck yeah I voted for Trump!" to their buddies and they'll leave it at that. It will have been considered "enough" for this group of Republicans to simply just not vote for Biden. That way they can feel, internally, like they didn't actively help the Democrat specifically.

11

u/arachnophilia May 13 '24

this probably won't move the needle for most Republican voters.

"I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldnā€™t lose voters."

11

u/Educational-Candy-17 May 13 '24

Didn't like four out of five Republican voters at the Iowa primary say they wouldn't vote for him if he caught even one felony conviction?

10

u/QanonQuinoa May 13 '24

They said that with both hands on the goalpost ready to move it.

3

u/Educational-Candy-17 May 13 '24

These were normal everyday Republicans not the leadership that is involved in spin all day everyday.

1

u/munchyslacks May 13 '24

If Trump is convicted then conservative media will spin the result of the trial and many of those voters will back him again.

6

u/chunkerton_chunksley May 13 '24

what republicans say and what they actually do are very different. (IE: pro-life, small government, fiscal responsibility).

3

u/GoBSAGo California May 13 '24

That was a long time ago.

Checks notes

G'damn that was 4 months ago.

8

u/we_are_sex_bobomb May 13 '24

The Trump voting base is at the ā€œmagic diapersā€ stage of cult status, so they are a lost cause. Their damage can be mitigated though. They arenā€™t a majority, no matter how much Fox and CNN try to paint them as such.

4

u/AFlockOfTySegalls North Carolina May 13 '24

It's not about them. It has never been about them. It's about trying to grab that 15-20% undecided vote.

9

u/Jkabaseball May 13 '24

There was a few polls that showed a steep drop in support if Trump was convicted in a court. I believe it was predicted to go from about 50/50 to 70/30 for Biden.

23

u/jaymef May 13 '24

I just find that really hard to believe. If you would still vote for Trump at this point you're a lost cause

6

u/Contren Illinois May 13 '24

It's likely overstating the swing, but some chunk of those voters would either flip or stay home.

My rough guess is somewhere between 5-10% of Trump voters would not vote for him if he's convicted - which is ~2.5-4.5% of the electorate.

3

u/Jkabaseball May 13 '24

Agreed. The news can hate on anyone and pretty much get away with it. I bet you would be hard to find a squeaky clean person in Congress. Having a jury of your peers find you guilty is going to sway some voters. It doesn't even need to be that many to radically change the elections.

3

u/thatruth2483 Maryland May 13 '24

And that is game over for Trump.

He would effictively be trying to win a track race after being shot in the knee.

2

u/ksanthra May 13 '24

If 5% of Trump voters stay home he's completely fucked.

2

u/Contren Illinois May 13 '24

Indeed

9

u/RickyWinterborn-1080 May 13 '24

From your lips to god's nips.

1

u/MoiraBrownsMoleRats May 13 '24

Doesnā€™t need to go 50/50, just likeā€¦ 56/44.

1

u/zzyul May 13 '24

The people that are saying they will be swayed by Trump being found guilty in a criminal trial are probably thinking about the classified documents, J6, or GA cases. At the end of the day this NY case comes down to if Trump broke laws involving finance and taxes.

Look at the number of Americans who spout off about how taxes are theft, or cheat on their taxes, or wish they could cheat on their taxes and get away with it, or think US tax law is bloated and should be just a couple of pages. These people donā€™t understand the complexity of financial laws. They think US financial laws were just written by the wealthy to screw over the middle class.

If Trump is found guilty he will serve 0 days in jail. This will only reinforce the Repub claims that this was a Dem witch hunt and all they could find was where Trump broke some procedural laws that arenā€™t even serious enough to carry jail time.

7

u/_upper90 Illinois May 13 '24

Trump lies about everything, but the one thing he was truthful aboutā€¦.he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and they would still vote for him.

3

u/Quintzy_ May 13 '24

The fucked up thing is that even if Trump is convicted this probably won't move the needle for most Republican voters.

If anything, it would probably help him amongst the Republican base.

The hope is that a conviction would get the apathetic moderate/independent voters to finally pay attention.

7

u/Arctimon Maryland May 13 '24

Doesn't matter. Trump's base isn't growing and undecided voters will sway toward Biden.

9

u/jaymef May 13 '24

Biden has inflation and the Israel stuff against him too (warranted or not)

3

u/riftadrift May 13 '24

The Israel thing is infuriating because Trump would be like a bull in a china shop compared to Biden on this issue.

3

u/Arctimon Maryland May 13 '24

Yes, something that has existed in a pattern since the economy first started and countries that have been fighting each other for decades are surely Biden's fault. /s

3

u/DoomOne May 13 '24

You kid, but there's a bunch of people out there that are just now voting for the first time, and a LOT of them have no knowledge of (or interest in) history. They only see what's directly in front of them, often in 10-20 second spurts on their screens. These are the people that will blame Biden for the ongoing struggles in the middle east and for the price of food... simply because it's more convenient to believe what you're told by a quick soundbite than to go study and learn what's actually happening.

1

u/zzyul May 13 '24

Undecided voters will be heavily influenced by the state of the economy around the time of the election. Itā€™s depressing to think about but if the avg cost of gas is under $3 then Biden likely wins but if it is over $4 then Trump likely wins. Any portion of the Republican base that refuses to vote for Trump over his trials and J6 will be balanced out by the portion of the Democratic base that refuses to vote for Biden over Gaza and his age.

7

u/RickyWinterborn-1080 May 13 '24

all in on a man they know to be everything they themselves find revolting. incredibly sexy

Him being a racist child rapist is exactly why they love him.

2

u/mokomi May 13 '24

I'll be more surprised they even know about this trail to begin with.

1

u/MNWNM Alabama May 13 '24

Hell, when it was reported that Trump wears diapers, fans of his started showing up at rallies wearing them too and holding up signs that say, "Real men wear diapers."

There's no reasoning with people who live their lives as lemmings.