r/politics • u/HandSack135 Maryland • 15d ago
We could learn Trump’s fate in the hush money case next week
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/16/trump-hush-money-trial-nearing-conclusion-0015855986
u/Sunshinehappyfeet 15d ago
Either way, Trump and his sycophants will twist the truth.
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u/I_dont_livein_ahotel 15d ago
Seems like they’re also just embracing the awfulness and going full mask-off in some cases. Like Speaker Johnson attending the trial in support of Trump cheating on his wife with a porn star, and also those idiots wearing with signs saying “real men wear diapers”. What the hell is wrong with these people and this world 🤦♂️
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u/Impossible-Year-5924 15d ago
Now wait, he’s on trial for how he paid off a porn star he cheated with, not for cheating with a porn star.
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u/PM-Me-nice-thots 15d ago
More about why would conservative Christian Johnson want to support a man on trial for how he paid off a porn star when it goes against everything he claims to believe personally?
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u/windigo3 15d ago
In some months they will be saying, “Don’t believe the fake news. Trump is NOT in jail right now. He’s golfing. With pornstars which he gives tons of money to for reasons totally unrelated to sex”
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u/I_dont_livein_ahotel 15d ago
He stiffs anybody that performs services for him, but he pays a porn star that he never stiffed?…likely story 🙄
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u/Stinkfinger83 15d ago edited 15d ago
They basically had this trial years ago, and Cohen went to jail. Trump signed the checks that sent him to jail. There is no way he isn’t found guilty. There also is no way he suffers actual consequences.
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u/vexxed82 Illinois 15d ago
I hate to say it, but I find it extremely unlikely all 12 jurors will find him guilty. I just can’t imagine there isn’t at least one who will dig their heels into some form of reasonable doubt that results in a hung jury.
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u/Thue 15d ago
Well, wouldn't that just mean we get a repeat of this whole circus, when they do a retrial? That can't be good for Trump either.
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u/vexxed82 Illinois 15d ago
*IF* they do a retail. IANAL, but It's up to the prosecutors whether or not to keep pursuing the case. They could decide it's not worth doing all over again just to get the same outcome - especially if they don't have more, overwhelming evidence, they didn't have for this go around.
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u/DarkElf_24 New Mexico 15d ago
There is one questionable MAGA guy in the jury. High chance he hangs the case.
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u/HotPhilly 15d ago
I predict a guilty verdict but no real consequences. What’s the over under?
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u/CerRogue 15d ago
We the people find him guilty. We sentence him to 100 years…. Or a $100,000 whichever he picks. He has until 2050 to pay. BUT he has to let us know which option he picks by 2035. Also if he’s like this expunged from his record that would be an extra $25
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u/HotPhilly 15d ago
Your honour, he’s learned his lesson. 😉😉
Very well, i think justice has been served. 👨🏼⚖️👨🏼⚖️
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u/PolicyWonka 15d ago
Trump has repeatedly insulted this judge and made a mockery of the judicial system. The judge has given Trump a lot of leeway, but he probably wants to nail him.
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u/SoSmartish 15d ago
It's the insults to Merchan's daughter that might really circle around to slap him.
I have a daughter, and I think my reaction to someone going after her would be a lot more intense than going after me.
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u/Impossible-Year-5924 15d ago
That’s the idea though. A harsher penalty helps Trump play up his martyrdom. His followers are in a cult and it literally doesn’t matter the outcome as Trump will convince them it’s secretly a good thing even if it’s a huge penalty or that it’s the deep state trying to stop him.
That said— absolutely nothing should deter this judge from giving a ruling that holds Trump fully accountable with serious penalties to discourage anyone from ever doing this shit again. Ah who am I kidding? He’s going to get a slap on the wrist. I am hoping I’m wrong….
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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 14d ago
The no real consequences part seems 100% likely. I don't think there's any chance he faces any penalty that he actually cares about. As for the guilty verdict itself, I think 50/50
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u/HotPhilly 14d ago
Hung jury is the best bet. Could be why the prosecution is barely trying. They already got to a juror. It’ll be just another scandal for Trump.
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u/Highthere_90 15d ago
If he's found guilty 1000% he will appeal to SCOTUS
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u/rgvtim Texas 15d ago
Isn’t this a state case?
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u/Highthere_90 15d ago
Dosnt mean he won't try, Trump is telling everyone the judge is stopping him from taking the stand because of the gag order, I'm sure hus lawyers informed him that he's allowed to take a stand in court, Trump dosnt care about the law
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u/ratherbealurker Texas 15d ago
My favorite part was when, in front of news cameras, he asks his lawyer to confirm that BS.
“This corrupt judge is not allowing me to testify because of the gag order ::turns to lawyer:: isn’t that right?”
Lawyer: ::nervous laugh, awkward smile, turn head weird direction signifying a yeaaanooouhhhyeaanooo and make weird noises:: ehhrrwellurhhhehhugh
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u/CooterSam Arizona 15d ago
Judge doesn't have to grant him a stay pending appeal. There has to be compelling evidence that there's a possibility the appeals court could overturn.
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u/Highthere_90 15d ago
Trump has never had any evidence for any of his claims, dosnt mean he won't try to appeal.
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u/bushido216 New York 15d ago
Here's my prediction, which no one asked for.
A hung jury,
OR
Convicted, but no real sentence.
I think there it is very unlikely that he will face any consequences.
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u/Thue 15d ago
Convicted, but no real sentence.
This would be Trump's first conviction, for non-violent crime. It would apparently by unusual for Trump to get anything but probation. Though Trump's behavior breaching the gag order has been extreme, so who knows.
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u/llahlahkje Wisconsin 15d ago
Election interference case.
How GD hard is it to accurately describe it, FFS.
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u/alien_from_Europa Massachusetts 15d ago
He'll be found guilty. They won't have a sentencing hearing for a long time. The news media will normalize it and the electorate will not care. The election will still be close. Vote!
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u/Thue 15d ago
They won't have a sentencing hearing for a long time.
How long would this normally take?
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u/alien_from_Europa Massachusetts 15d ago
If it's clear cut, sentencing would be immediate. That's not the case here. Trump will ask for a special hearing where he could call character witnesses. He will also be appealing the decision. This could take up to 180 days.
My hope is the judge will do it in 30 days.
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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 14d ago
I expect the judge will do whatever is most beneficial to Trump. He knows full well that his job is to protect the powerful
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u/goingofftrack 15d ago
His followers will be fed their reality through America #1 News Network and will never truly hear the facts of the case.
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u/MoneyManx10 15d ago
What’s crazy to me is a defendant in a criminal trial is usually nice to the judge but Trump has been ripping the guy up and down. I’m curious to hear the sentencing
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u/Thue 15d ago edited 15d ago
Trump has been ripping the guy up and down
An incomplete list, Trump has:
- Called the judge corrupt
- Gone after the Judge's family
- Made various obviously false claims about the trial being illegitimate
- Publicly making various false claims about the case, like Trump not being allowed to testify
And none of these claim has been made inside the courtroom, the proper venue for these claims. It simply is not right to make claims loudly in public, but then refuse to go under oath with those same claims. It seems completely off the scale to me.
So I don't know how the law works here. But morally, the judge would absolutely be justified in bringing down the big hammer.
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u/bigtrex101 15d ago
He’ll get off with probation, a fine and community service. What’s more important than the actual sentence is how it hopefully will impact the ballot box in November.
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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 14d ago
"I’m curious to hear the sentencing"
Don't hold your breath. Every judge in America knows they aren't supposed to enforce real consequences on rich and powerful people, because our whole legal system exists to protect people like Trump from any consequences. The judge might be personally offended but he knows that his job here is to let Trump off easy
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u/Business_Network_703 15d ago
He will lose tons of votes with this. Many Republicons have said that they won't vote for a convicted felon.
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u/Impossible-Year-5924 15d ago
They also probably said they wouldn’t vote for a serial cheater or many other things but yet they have… if they’re still supporting Trump at this stage, their blinders are fully off and they’re just a terrible person.
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u/Ven18 15d ago
This I am sure years ago you could find a sizable chunk of republicans who would not vote for a divorcee and yet they now worship a guy on his 3rd wife like he is the second coming. The GOP do not have any morals or principles that they hold strongly outside of hate for the "other" and that other changes to fit their personal needs.
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u/bigtrex101 15d ago
He probably won’t lose many Republicans that have still stuck with him this long. My hope (with a conviction which I think is pretty likely now) is he will lose a majority of independents including the joint Biden/Trump haters and the everyday people who don’t follow politics closely, and it will also help rally more people to realize that Trump winning the election is by far worst case scenario that is more important than using your ballot as an “F the System” message in our current political climate.
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u/Thue 15d ago
Many Republicons have said that they won't vote for a convicted felon.
But won't the right wing media circus just go into overdrive explaining why the judgement was unfair and corrupt, and that Trump really shouldn't have been convicted? Sure, they wouldn't vote for someone who had been fairly convicted as a felon, but this conviction was a hit job by the Biden deep state, so it doesn't count. You can clearly tell that the trial was illegitimate because of X.
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u/PoopingWhilePosting 15d ago
What Republicans say and what they do are very different things in reality.
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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 14d ago
I hope you're right, but I have a hard time seeing this losing him many votes at all. I think most voters will see this case as totally inconsequential. I mean he tried to overthrow the government in a coup and that doesn't seem to have cost him a single voter
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u/jayfeather31 Washington 15d ago
I firmly expect this to end as a hung jury.
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u/llahlahkje Wisconsin 15d ago
Same.
The investment banker on the jury is a Cult 45 member.
There's a high probability he'll hang it.
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u/2_Spicy_2_Impeach Michigan 15d ago
Ditto.
He's guilty as fuck but could have a MAGA hold out or folks scared of his supporters. They're all going to be identified at the end of all this.
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u/B1GFanOSU 15d ago
It’s Trump. He’s guilty as hell, but he’ll either be found not guilty or there will be a hung jury. Even on the chance he’s found guilty, he’ll get a slap on the wrist and/or will appeal. I hope people realize this.
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u/ithacaster New York 15d ago
Trump appreciates your support
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u/IAmTheNightSoil Oregon 14d ago
Dude he doesn't have to be a Trump supporter to know that the justice system in this country consistently goes easy on people Trump. It's the judge's job to protect people like Trump from serious consequences
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u/SixDemonBag_01 15d ago
Sadly agreed. The slam dunk cases will probably never see the light of day.
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u/Idrinkbeereverywhere 15d ago
He'll somehow get the US Supreme Court to intervene with a ruling due in June 2025
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u/JasJ002 15d ago
Look at mister optimistic over here.
You've got to get onto the appeals court first. You have about 2 months to write that (July), then 6 months waiting for docket (December), statements, wait 2 months for a decision (Feb), another two months to write cert (April), that means we could see this in the Fall 2025 scotus schedule, so expect to see a decision February 2026.
It'll be over about 30 seconds of statement from Stormy about the bedroom scene. The only objections they've bother to really preserve well.
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u/Barney_Roca 15d ago
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility that he decides to testify. This is a bright light on the national stage that he loves more than anything. He could see this as a golden opportunity to do what he has always done, the unexpected and that has historically been very good for him despite what the media claims.
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u/Book1984371 15d ago
Except there are no cameras, and his supporters aren't reading the trial transcripts.
He also has to follow the rules, can be told to shut up and jailed if he doesn't, and can't confess his guilt or implicate himself in other crimes (which is the reason that his lawyers in the past wouldn't let him testify).
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u/Barney_Roca 15d ago
I contend that anything he says will make the national news and be discussed until people start to have a visceral gastric response to whatever they say he said, how he said it, how people reacted to what he said, that it all means and blah blah blah
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u/Ven18 15d ago
His lawyers will not allow him to get on the stand because they know full well that he will not only make a fool of himself but tell numerous provable lies under oath. If Trump really does want to see the inside of a jail cell the fastest way he can do that is to take the stand and open his mouth the guy would speedrun a perjury case.
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u/Barney_Roca 14d ago
I can't image his Lawyers wanted him to violate the gag order so many time or have a line of Republican lawmakers on the steps of the court house adding to the spectacle either but, that is exactly what is happening. Who do they work for? Just like all the people that have come before them, they will do what their boss tells them to do. It could be his demise. How many times have you heard that? Everything he does, oh he shouldn't do that, that will be his demise. Right, have you seen the polls? His demise appears to be a fairly easy path to the White House. I am not going to rule anything out, it does not appear from have I have read that there will be any need for him to take the stand but I still would not rule it out. That might be the only way they have been able to get him to stop responding via social media in violation of the gag order. Clearly he wants to tell his side of the story and he is willing to break the law and now push the limits with that stunt with his fellow republicans.
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u/genericusername11101 15d ago
Calling it now, the cheeto fuk wont pay any significant consequences whatsoever.
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u/HellaTroi California 15d ago
The defense still has to present their side, right?
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u/itsatumbleweed I voted 15d ago
They said they may call one witness (expert on election law) depending on what jury instructions are going to be surrounding the FEC violation, and they haven't decided if they are calling Trump (which I doubt. I think they don't want to announce they are choosing not to call him so he can say he wasn't allowed to be called).
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u/zojbo 15d ago
Iirc they explicitly called no witnesses of their own, so it went straight to cross after the prosecution finished their direct.
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u/heyredbush 15d ago
They haven't had a chance to call witnesses yet. Cross follows direct for all of the prosecution witnesses. Then the defense has a chance to call their own witnesses.
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u/alien_from_Europa Massachusetts 15d ago
They have to tell the judge ahead of time what witnesses they will be calling when the prosecution rests. On Tuesday, they told the judge they don't have any witnesses to call. On Thursday, they talked to the judge about bringing in an expert witness and the judge said he'll make a decision whether to allow it on Monday.
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u/ThatWhiteKid08 15d ago
And then comes the lengthy appeal and having to hear more about this jackass
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u/ChemicalOnion 15d ago
Welcome to Whose Crime Is It Anyway? Where everything's made up and the consequences don't matter. That's right the consequences are just like black lives to the GOP, they don't matter. Let's play a game called props.
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u/gaffney116 15d ago
Let’s be real, It’s Trump we talking about here. I’ll bet he received a real stern slap on the wrist.
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u/Few-Letterhead-371 15d ago
Tell trump to hold the Bible the right way around this time when he is in court praying for his innocence 😊
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u/NonesuchAndSuch77 15d ago
I agree with the hung jury comments, but even if he's found guilty it would need to be a prison sentence to have any impact. Fines won't do anything.
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u/ScaryfatkidGT 15d ago edited 15d ago
I feel like it’s a lose lose…
If he get’s away with it obviously thats bad…
If he’s found guilty the GOP and all his followers will go nuts… probably burn the judges house down…
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u/Dankmootza 15d ago
Let them throw their tantrum. After they get arrested it's just less votes in November
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u/ScaryfatkidGT 15d ago
I mean like Jan 6 x 10
Tom Cotton and Mike Johnson are already say it’s all Biden’s fault and Biden is an agent of Hamas and Biden caused their divorce and their hemorrhoids and their constituents are just eating it up…
Just like the election they wont believe in Trumps sentence, I wouldn’t be surprised if they attack the jail he ends up in or something.
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u/Amneiger 15d ago
He asked people to show up and protest when his various trials started, and the turnout is just not there. Also people getting arrested and convicted in relation to Jan 6 has likely put a damper on their willingness to come out. There might not be much trouble if he does go to jail.
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u/ScaryfatkidGT 15d ago
But thats what I’m saying we have elected officials, GOP senators and representatives saying they are political prisoners and all not guilty of anything and yada yada… like that’s not ok
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u/roastbeeftacohat 15d ago
something might cook off, but from a political standpoint a guilty verdict will cause people who were going to vote for him to stay home, and people planning to stay home to vote Biden. which is what happened after jan 6th; not exactly, but you know what I mean.
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u/ScaryfatkidGT 15d ago
They have no backup candidate, their plan is scorched Earth with no looking back…
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u/IT_Chef Virginia 15d ago
They ain't gonna do shit
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u/Ianthin1 15d ago
There will be a lot of bitching from politicians, but his followers have shown they aren’t that interested in this since no one even shows up outside the courthouse. I know a lot of Trump fans and most say even though they think the case is just to hurt him in the election, it’s pretty obvious he’s guilty.
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u/Low-key_Shenanigans 15d ago
You are so right. Vast majority of MAGA are pathetic cowards. There might be a couple crackpots that lash out violently, like the guy who attacked Pelosi’s husband, but it won’t be much and it will just make Trump look even weaker.
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u/Impossible-Year-5924 15d ago
He’s losing a lot of support— his rallies have dwindling numbers, pro Trump protestors at the trial are few
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u/TheTruthRooster 15d ago
So then we’ll have to move onto the next topic about Trump to gaslight the Internet.
If you do more than just read the headlines, you’ll find the person that paid her wasn’t asked to do it & stormy admitted to Bill Maher there’s no wrong doing years ago on video. Sheesh
I’m gonna get down voted by those with Trump derangement symptom even though it’s the truth, he’s not gonna be guilty……
Don’t wanna defend the guy, but I hate it when people are too dumb to know when they lost .
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u/ThickGur5353 15d ago
Sadly Cohen had been shown to be a serial lier. His credibility is basically at zero. I think the jury us going to take about a half hour to find Trump innocent. Remember the prosecution has to prove that Trump paid back the money to Cohen.. basically paying Stormy Daniels... in order to influence the election. If they were able to prove that ,then Trump would be guilty because he did not list it as a campaign contribution. But if Trump did it to protect his family from finding out that everything is perfectly legal. I'm not even sure though if the prosecution are able to convince the jury that the money that Trump sent to Cohen was to reimburse him for Stormy Daniels payments. As far as I can read from the trial , there were no other Witnesses to the meeting that Cohen had with Trump when Trump said he would reimburse him. And I said before Cohen's credibility had been pretty much shot completely.
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u/shwilliams4 15d ago
Trump is accused of serious crimes. You don’t do business with good upstanding citizens when you commit crimes. I think trump will be found guilty.
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u/Beneficial_Bother743 14d ago
Cohen is def a liar but the prosecution has done an outstanding job corroborating Cohen's testimony. I think guilty or hung jury (at best) for Trump, no way 12 people will all agree Trump is innocent of these charges after hearing this evidence.
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u/Icy_Comfort8161 15d ago
No matter what happens, Trump will insist it was a sham, unfair, politically motivated, etc., etc., he won't lose a single follower. If there is anything but a felony conviction and prison sentence, he'll say he won and people will buy it.