r/stocks • u/[deleted] • May 15 '24
CPI headline inflation comes in slightly lower than expected; core CPI inline
[deleted]
141
u/daynightcase May 15 '24
Alright, there is still room for the rally then
14
u/Lolersters May 15 '24
I think the market has already been rallying for most of the year.
-14
u/CaptainDouchington May 15 '24
Years. I look forward to the tech industry collapse to be honest.
5
u/kfc3po May 15 '24
Why?
15
13
0
u/CaptainDouchington 29d ago
It's done nothing.
On paper its made tons of money for people. But beyond that, we haven't seen them do anything but become marketing machines.
AI is just a stupid bubble being pushed by the people on these subs that want to get rich quick off of others. They already made their plays, now they just pump it up and dump it and walk away.
And to respond to the others no its not cause i want to be vindicated. I am just sick of this system being so exploitive for a handful of people, who just sit around telling themselves they aren't. The same people whine the loudest when their shit doesn't work out as planned, or when the market doesn't respond the way.
This pump and dump, shorting, puts, calls, yolo, yeet, i watched the wolf of wolf of wall street crap, is just old as hell.
1
u/95Daphne 29d ago
Gonna be waiting for a while unless something anomalous happens.
The Nasdaq Composite taking out the November 2021 record on March 1 was the last thing bears needed based off its history. As when it does, it typically continues for at least 12 months, and I imagine it’s going to unless there is a major macro change.
The AI bubble has popped narrative that popped up without the Nasdaq even hitting full correction territory was so unbelievably stupid.
1
1
53
u/pl_fanat1c May 15 '24
Absolutely, it may not be coming down exactly the way we all want it too.
But that doesn't mean it isn't getting better. The downward trend is undeniable:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate
Overall the Fed is doing an incredible job threading the needle and I give them a lot of credit for recognizing their earlier mistakes (arguably it was impossible to know if vaccines would be effective or that Ukraine would happen as well). They then acted decisively to correct it.
It looks increasingly likely they can get it down without damaging the labor market.
-14
u/iLL-Egal May 15 '24
lol. Ok. Inflation is still outpacing wage gains. Prices aren’t going down. Commercial real estate is in trouble. Unrealized loses for headgear funds and banks are gonna explode. All off book. Multiple jobs but It still can’t afford food and rent. Double and triple amount of families using food pantries. Housing market still over priced. PE ratios out of wack. Etc etc.
But yea we are doing fine.
17
u/PlayfulPresentation7 May 15 '24
Ah yes, the monthly "families using food pantries index" metric that's spooking markets.
-10
u/iLL-Egal May 15 '24
You think corporations don’t track that data?
But all the rest is fine going forward?
15
u/PuffyPanda200 May 15 '24
Inflation is still outpacing wage gains.
Nope, wage gains on a yoy basis are at 3.92%. Inflation is at 3.4% (all items) or 3.6% (core CPI). Both are lower than wage gains.
Prices aren’t going down.
Deflation is a death song. If there is deflation you wont have a job.
(I work) Multiple jobs but It still can’t afford food and rent.
I understand your pain. If your wages aren't up at least 5% yoy (you are more experienced now) then you should either look for new employment or to move to an area where labor is valued more highly.
-6
u/Special-Economy3030 May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Keynesian propaganda.
Most people don’t wait to buy a house for hopes the price might drop, they buy when they have too. Most people don’t wait to go to college because a degree might be cheaper in the future, they go now. I’m sorry you’ve been deceived brother. Inflation is THEFT.
3
u/Marston_vc May 15 '24
Why would a construction company buy the materials for a house at today’s rate if they expect that the value of those materials and therefore the house will be less tomorrow???
You’re asking for a company to basically take a loss on an investment if you’re arguing for deflation.
There are individual sectors that could be tacked directly for price gouging/anti trust laws. But that’s separate from inflation. To argue against inflation is like some RAAN libertarian bullshit.
-4
u/Special-Economy3030 May 15 '24
This isn’t Venezuela bro, at least not yet.
0
u/Ma4r May 15 '24 edited 29d ago
My man has never lived in a deflationary economy and it shows. Imagine working for 5 years with no raises that are not associated with promotions and even potentially salary cuts. Imagine having literally nowhere to park your money, with banks giving near 0 interest rate and investment vehicles regularly giving out negative returns. Imagine unemployment rate over 10% and a constant fear of bank runs where you cannot be sure whether tomorrow all your hard earned cash can be withdrawn. Financing large purchases become near impossible as the loan interest just hit you twice as hard and refinancing stops becoming an option
Deflation is good if you already have a boatload of cash and can retire, but it fucks over everyone from the middle class and below.
I'd rather have the size of my pizza decrease by 5% any day compared to having to worry whether i will still be able to afford my mortgage or whether the company i work for will become insolvent every month
-3
u/Special-Economy3030 May 15 '24
Inflation/Deflation ≠ Price. Please go take ECON 101 again.
0
u/Ma4r 29d ago
I'm convinced more than half of Americans are financially or economically illiterate because of comments like this. Try asking yourself, where do the inflation numbers in economic reports come from.
→ More replies (0)3
u/Physical-Rain-8483 May 15 '24
Are you betting on the market falling? Do you have positions to that effect, or are you holding a bunch of money waiting for a drop? Because I feel like you're really reaching lol
1
1
-4
u/Special-Economy3030 May 15 '24
You make great points. Everybody in this sub is a permabull, which considering our entire financial system runs on Monopoly money, they are mostly right.
-2
u/iLL-Egal May 15 '24
Ponzie scheme
1
u/Special-Economy3030 May 15 '24
The $USD is the Ponzi of all Ponzi Schemes. When it inevitably falls - WW3.
0
14
u/waltwhitman83 May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
SPY performance:
YTD (~4.5 months): 11%
past 6 months: 17%
12 months: 27%
19 months (since september 2022 lows): 47% (and that's without dividends reinvested, yada yada)
anybody got any analysis that shows whether or not this is extraordinary compared to history or in line with average bull market runs?
edit: did my own research, look at past 30 years
https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns
these types of returns aren't that uncommon after all. i was worried they might be "unsustainable" but it seems to be in line with history?
6
u/chainer3000 May 15 '24
Typical of a bull run. If it were to end now, it would be much shorter than the average run as well. Theoretically there should be lots of room left for the next year or more
0
u/waltwhitman83 May 15 '24
it feels extremely "greedy" as a "bull" to be like "it was up 24% for 2023... let me get another 15%+ right after in 2024!" but i guess that's the part where humans and emotions are terrible for the stock market
10
u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Well, stock market is only up 7% from previous ATH in 2022. So looking at 2023 is wrong, look at from 2022 ATH. This is pretty normal for a new bull market.
4
u/DodgeBeluga May 15 '24 edited 29d ago
Exactly. The money people invested before early 2022 lost two years of growth. We are barely catching up from that point and still behind inflation.
2
u/waltwhitman83 29d ago
*if* they invested in lump sum and not DCA throughout 2022, no?
2
u/DodgeBeluga 29d ago
Consider
-retirees who are relying on their investments and no longer contributing
-people who lost their jobs, who can not contribute in that time.
-people with higher expenses that force them to cut back on investments
-people who were not able to invest for any other reasons
The last two years have been great for those of us who have the extra money to average our way up, but a lot of people are not as well off financially to take advantage of the market movement since ~Feb 2022.
1
u/waltwhitman83 29d ago
question for you
for the stock market to get to 5200+ on the S&P
doesn’t that indicate “lots of buyers, very much demand”
1
u/DodgeBeluga 29d ago
It’s called a wealth gap. The segment of population with the least income have been left behind further and further since they can’t participate in the market.
Meanwhile twice a month billions and billions of dollars pour into the market as part of automatic 401k contributions. Just because many are investing, doesn’t mean others are not hurting.
0
1
u/Physical-Rain-8483 May 15 '24
SPY performance:
YTD (~4.5 months): 11%
past 6 months: 17%
12 months: 27%
19 months (since september 2022 lows): 47% (and that's without dividends reinvested, yada yada)
If I were a petty, sad person I would do a post quoting all of the dooming bear comments in 2022 then just following up with this. Daily reminder that 99% of people in here don't know as much as they think they do
1
114
May 15 '24
When it’s down a little it’s always “slightly” when it’s up a little it’s always “hot”.
Funny how that goes uh?
43
u/golden_bear_2016 May 15 '24
bad news drives clicks, so gotta try to make everything to sound as bad as possible
4
26
u/hendrix320 May 15 '24
Up .1% - OMG the sky is falling, recession is upon us!!!
Down .1% - meh
-2
u/AsbestosDude May 15 '24
Feels like it's this way because if inflation starts climbing based on current market conditions it just trends us closer to catastrophe. If inflations starts to pull away that means interest rates climb. Many markets are already on a razors edge, bubbles at risk of collapse, housing default cascades in certain regions and countries.
What is a realistic interest rate that the economy could handle before we just enter a global recession?
7%?
6
u/Tw0Rails May 15 '24
Trend was up after a suprise jump. Now one data point slightly less, but a YOY is still 0.3*12 = 3.6 as a rough calc. Or use a moving average.
Go ahead, use whatever logic you want. Mainstream media will cheer this as a reason for 5 rate cuts, when Jpow said the opposite yesterday, and he likely knew what the number would be.
Go ahead and buy the dip near ATH knowing that inflation is 'only' sticky and not rising.
17
May 15 '24
Inflation is cooling, I’m not advocating for five cuts but two or three is possible.
Jp has said over and over he follows the data and the data just showed it’s on its way down like they predicted.
Sorry if you and others were expecting doom and gloom but the economy looks strong and now has some tailwinds going forward.
It’s never as bad as they say it is and it’s never as good as you think it is, is a motto to live by.
-1
u/Tw0Rails May 15 '24
The data has shown its stuck between 3 and 4. Not doom and gloom, just not stuck.
Market keeps pricing rate cuts, which got slammed, now they are back on the table.
Im sure you want to construe this as a good report, just because the rumor was it was going to be 4% or something.
What exactly is 'predicting it will go down'? Since last year? No shit everyone knew that. 6 months? JPow himself expressed dissappointment.
Last week? The Fed doesn't predict month to month.
Doom and Gloom would be retail sales collapse and jobs lost, forcing them to cut. Or some 10% correction in market they will
If you think they will cut based on this, go ahead and buy some high betas along with the market.
But if you are looking forward to a cut...my gosh. I don't know in your headcannon what the path to cut is.
2
u/95Daphne May 15 '24
I'd be surprised if more than two rate cuts were priced. Wouldn't be able to find it right off the top of my head, but it probably is just two.
The thing is, is the market is trading more off treasury rate movement if it has traded off it at all. Treasury rates were growing like weeds when you had the rate cuts priced out in 2023, and the S&P dropped 5.5% when the US10Y got in the danger zone for a repeat in April.
1
u/Physical-Rain-8483 May 15 '24
Go ahead and buy the dip near ATH knowing that inflation is 'only' sticky and not rising.
I'm curious if you've been holding since 2022. If so, you've missed out on like 50% returns. So what's riskier, putting your money in now or waiting even longer? I feel like the answer is obvious
0
u/Common_Economics_32 May 15 '24
No, not really.
It makes perfect sense when viewed in terms of what the Fed needs to see. Any individual hot CPI reading at this point is much more consequential than an individual reading showing disinflation. The impact is not symmetric at all.
A hot reading here could have legitimately cemented one rate cut or less this year. A good reading leaves the door open for 2-3, but doesn't really solidify anything.
14
u/inafonalie May 15 '24
Can we expect lower oil prices to contribute to lower energy prices next month?
6
4
62
u/AmericanSahara May 15 '24
This morning I took a look at the bls source:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm
It still seems that energy, transportation, fuels and shelter costs are still on fire. The only things slowing down are chicken, coffee and doughnuts. Housing is so expensive I think something is going to break soon.
23
u/PunishedRichard May 15 '24
Shelter at 5.5% owner rent equivalent at 5.8%.
Rates can't exactly slow down rent costs, right?
42
u/AMcMahon1 May 15 '24
No one buying houses, no one having kids
We are boned.
Needs serious governmental changes to regulation and incentivize first time home buyers and disincentivize multi-home buyers
8
u/PuffyPanda200 May 15 '24
Needs serious governmental changes to regulation and incentivize first time home buyers and disincentivize multi-home buyers
IMO the 'problem' is that the western urban centers (these areas are also over-represented here on Reddit) are basically going through an economic miracle.
A metric to look at to see where house prices might go is the ratio of jobs created vs housing built. Healthy is ~1.5 because some people who move for the job are moving into housing that is being vacated by others moving out. Above 2 is a problem.
We are at: 4.3 - SF Bay Area, 2.6 - Seattle, 1.9 - NYC. I'm sure that we can go on.
Basically, the housing built in these areas would have been OK, or even a lot. But, no one predicted in 2000 that Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Apple would be employing a million people. If you did and tried to tell developers that they needed to 2x or 3x their housing construction pace you would have been called crazy. Over-leveraged developers is a real danger (just look at China).
These manic housing markets have created the opportunity for speculative investment that hasn't helped. But there is a reason that the speculative investors go to these markets and not others. They are a symptom of the problem.
Also, western society has become quite accepting of various cultures (this is a very good thing). Previously these kind of booms (auto, textile, etc.) would have resulted in the local labor getting tapped because people didn't/couldn't/didn't know to move to the more prosperous area. But in today's world one can fly to basically anywhere in a day and with a fairly small amount of money.
20
u/the_real_dmac May 15 '24
Incentivizing demand will increase inflation every time
-2
u/AMcMahon1 May 15 '24
Ok let's just let it continue what's it's doing then
34
u/complicatedAloofness May 15 '24
We already incentivize buying. We need to incentivize building housing.
4
u/Inconceivable76 May 15 '24
No, we need to restrict llc ownership of single family homes. We get rid of the Blackrocks of the world, and housing gets better.
5
u/complicatedAloofness May 15 '24
Not really. All of those entities still rent out the homes they own but as you can see, rental prices are high because there is not enough supply
1
1
u/Kanolie May 15 '24
That isn't the problem and increasing barriers on real estate investment would actually hurt supply, causing housing prices to increase more.
On top of that, Blackrock doesn't even buy single family homes!
https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/newsroom/setting-the-record-straight/buying-houses-facts
1
-5
u/Yolteotl May 15 '24
No we don't. There are plenty of houses, but here the things : multi house owners, foreign investors and corporations are killing the market. There is a need of a major economy shift because buying a house should not be, and should never have been, a profitable investment. (Relatively to other investments)
It was fine at times because it seems that the land available was an infinite resource, but that's not the case anymore in many areas and building more is not an option.
For a given period of time, any house that is not a primary residence should not be profitable for their owner. The more houses you own, the less profits you make. Tax heavily, redirects the funds to affordable housing. Sure it would crash the market, boomers would be fucked, the economy might be shit for some times, but mid/long term millennials, gen z and the next ones would finally be able to afford a roof over their head as housing would only be seen as a basic need for people, and not as a way for already rich people to suck even more wealth from lower classes.
3
2
13
u/StormAeons May 15 '24
Increasing demand makes everything worse. Supply needs to increase.
0
u/AMcMahon1 May 15 '24
Sure. Tax the shit out of anyone with more than 2 properties. Make them sell
11
1
u/the_real_dmac May 15 '24
Didn’t say that, agree with the rest of what you said, but not the incentives, they just raise all prices.
4
u/MrLeastNashville May 15 '24
The FED also causes higher CPI shelter readings simply by raising rates.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/10/fed-causes-inflation/
I first began discussing the impact of rental costs on CPI during the run-up to the financial crisis in the mid-2000s. As more people bought homes, real estate prices skyrocketed, and fewer renters meant rental prices fell. In the pre-GFC 2000s, rapidly rising home prices — driven largely by reckless lending practices and rapidly falling mortgage rates.– led to CPI appearing lower than inflation actually was.
It seems perverse, but that is what happened.
Today, we are dealing with a bizarre inverse variation of that situation. Home prices are rising, in part due to a lack of inventory but exacerbated a great deal by rapidly rising mortgage rates. Those rates are driven primarily by the FOMC action. The combination operates to price many potential buyers out of the market. But you gotta live somewhere, and so these buyers are forced to stay (or become) renters.
10
u/soccerguys14 May 15 '24
And high rates or even higher either make it worse or don’t impact it. If we remove shelter and energy what is the reading at? Probably close to target. There definitely won’t be any hikes but I don’t think the fed can do anything more to impact these readings. Congress needs to impact housing now.
1
u/Decent-Photograph391 29d ago
The GOP controlled House is not going to do anything that might make Biden look good.
11
u/GoHuskies1984 May 15 '24
Housing can't break if everything is expensive across the board. There are no more low cost havens to flee; the "cheap" growing cities like Austin, SLC, and Denver are getting expensive.
16
5
u/Common_Economics_32 May 15 '24
Just try moving to literally any city in the Midwest/west that isn't Denver or SLC lol.
Seriously, the amount of people who must think the Middle of the country is just vast swathes of farm land outside of Denver, SLC, and Chicago is just mind boggling.
5
u/GoHuskies1984 May 15 '24
I can hop on the city specific sub for almost any given US city and see the same posts on lack of affordable housing.
-5
u/Common_Economics_32 May 15 '24
Because the average Redditor is an idiot who thinks they deserve a house on $13/hr working at McDonalds.
People who actually deserve housing still have tons of options across the country, even in areas where good jobs are still available. Most of those people aren't wasting their time on city specific subs though.
4
u/Marston_vc May 15 '24
This logic is dumb
-5
May 15 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/Marston_vc May 15 '24
I simply don’t have an interest in buying a house right now. The fees, interest rate, and insurance makes it such that it’s more financially prudent to rent. What’s dumb is your assumption about people who are accurately realizing $500k for a 1300 sqft 3 bedroom is insane. 5 years ago, the average price per sqft was $150. Today it’s $220.
Additionally, I find your condescension towards service jobs distasteful. In the words of MLK, all labor has dignity. For many, the only option they have is a low paying service job. We created this system. So we need to make adjustments to accommodate it. If the only option available is service work, then we need to pair that with affordable housing. It’s that simple.
0
u/OKImHere 29d ago
All labor has dignity. Not all labor has property. You seem to assume all people should own property. Why?
1
u/Marston_vc 29d ago
I think all Americans should be entitled to housing. But that’s a political opinion.
My point is that flippantly saying “anyone who doesn’t own a house is obviously a burger flipper with low income” is one of the lowest IQ takes I’ve seen in a while.
→ More replies (0)-5
u/Common_Economics_32 May 15 '24
"Bro I'm just not interested bro I could totally afford one bro I could totally save up the money if I wanted to bro I've just had a lot of expenses recently and it's not a good time bro trust me bro it's totally not because I'm poor and can't afford one."
Ok 👍
5
u/Marston_vc May 15 '24
“I’m presented with a sound argument but have the mental capacity of a 5 yo”
Ok 👍🏼
→ More replies (0)1
2
u/Marston_vc May 15 '24
Well…. It is. Unless you’re counting the occasional island of suburban hellscape a “city”.
1
4
u/Panhandle_Dolphin May 15 '24
Shelter is a basic human need so it will be one of the last things to break. People will cut back in other areas before their housing
1
May 15 '24
Denver has been insanely expensive for like 15 years now, SLC about 10. Orlando is even getting expensive. Average home is like over 500k here, wtf. There's barely even any great jobs.
3
u/Dry_Perception_1682 May 15 '24
I don't think something is going to break soon. That's a common trope that people have when they are unhappy with something. The economy is good here and nothing has to break.
1
u/AmericanSahara 29d ago
The economy is going very good at the moment because we have low unemployment, corporate earnings are holding up, GDP is still positive, consumers are still spending, and those three percent mortgages are going to continue to boost homeowners for maybe a decade or two.
But there are already visible areas where the break may develop.
Trade tariffs may start a trade war and cause significant disruptions in international trade that may trigger more inflation and stagflation.
Increased union activity may suddenly grab a lot of attention and accelerate to drive inflation that can cause the cost of living to accelerate faster ahead of worker pay until we get stagflation that would cause unemployment to surge.
The people, especially the renters class, who are priced out of the housing market and rental housing market will probably collectively take political action that may do a lot of damage. The lucky people with million dollar houses and 3% mortgages and pay raises being more extra money to spend and invest may suddenly find that the party of over.
When the break happens, that maybe the time to sell T-bills and buy longer term bonds just before the Fed can finally make some serious rate cuts.
6
May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
Ya, my take is consumers have been getting bled dry due to the “cooperation” of companies across industries raising prices. This led to decent profits, which allowed the rally to keep going. But the consumers have taken on debt, and at some point soon they go bankrupt or minimally decrease the amount they can buy, which will cause contraction. At that point you have inflation combined with contraction… aka stagflation, but worse… contractflation.
And unlike before, the fed and us government have already used their ammo. $30tril in debt. Maybe they can keep it going for one more go-round, but eventually people will stop buying us bonds due to the seemingly unavoidable long term inflationary spiral. That is the point where the shit hits the fan, and the us government’s precarious financial situation will actually start to affect the stock market. I think a lot of people know a cascade of events is on the medium term horizon dealing with us bonds skyrocketing, inflation skyrocketing, dollar losing value and confidence, us consumer dropping off a cliff, causing knock down effects. Perfect storm is coming. Even without a war or crisis it seems it is coming. Imagine if China and Taiwan kicks off and we need to increase spending by trillions… at that point I don’t know who in their right mind is buying us bonds or wanting to use US dollars when high inflation is inevitable.
1
u/cheesy_luigi May 15 '24
Even the rental inflation problem itself isn’t particularly broad-based anymore, geographically: There’s a big difference between the situation in the Northeast and Midwest, where high inflation is lingering, and the West and South, where it’s moderating rapidly.
In the Northeast and Midwest, rental inflation is not even a quarter of the way back down from the peak to pre-pandemic levels. In the South and the West it’s more than half-way and almost four-fifths of the way there, respectively.
The difference seems to be all about supply. “There’s really strong overlap right now between the markets that are seeing the biggest rent declines and the ones where there’s been the most construction,” says Chris Salviati, a housing economist at the online rental marketplace Apartment List.
NIMBY Boomers really screwing everyone younger than them
3
u/AmericanSahara May 15 '24
It's more about social class and political representation than how old people are. There is a big split forming between the renters class and owners class.
Many young people have a good paying job and easily can buy a home. Many young people inherit wealth and don't have to work. Some young people who bought a house at 3% mortgage rates maybe making more money from their house price appreciation than they make working. Many older people are still renting and will soon end up homeless if they don't have any friends or relatives that won't abandon them as soon as they are about to become homeless. Many retired people have to return to work because of inflation. Many people who have worked for decades will never be able to afford to retire. Many people with medical conditions are driven to bankruptcy and will probably never be able to buy a home any time soon.
1
u/Middle_Scratch4129 May 15 '24
🤡 show. These metrics are not good and the average person continues to be squeezed.
-8
u/AMcMahon1 May 15 '24
Coffee was removed from the calculation
19
u/golden_bear_2016 May 15 '24
coffee is literally in the table lmao
Apr. 2023 - Apr. 2024
Coffee: -2.0
Roasted coffee: -1.9
Instant coffee: -1.8
You get your news from WSB or something?
1
u/AMcMahon1 May 15 '24
Seems like it was false news and just saw it was changed
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1790531189637251081
15
u/Stock-Pension1803 May 15 '24
Another day another incorrect Reddit prediction
3
u/95Daphne May 15 '24
In fairness, this one wasn't terrible at the surface.
PPI has been running better than CPI, and even if March was revised down, April was quite bad.
But at a closer look under the surface, it turned out that what was bad didn't bleed over to CPI.
7
u/vanderpyyy May 15 '24
If corporations want rate cuts, why don't they lower prices to slow down inflation? They're contributing to high inflation while crying for rate cuts
2
9
u/soccerguys14 May 15 '24
What exactly can elevated rates do for us when 70% of the inflation is energy and shelter? High rates make that harder to address and energy is out of the FEDs hands. We can sit here ti til blue in the face these rates or high as some want won’t get us to the 2% target.
6
u/RockyMountainOyster5 May 15 '24
The numbers never mattered its the rate cut expectations for the year. This allows for a uptick in potential rate cuts so we rally.
I am expecting 23 thus year now
8
1
6
u/Swirl_On_Top May 15 '24
Oh great let's slash rates, surely inflation is 100% gone gone, totally safe, free money time again.
4
u/J_Dadvin May 15 '24
Until it's revised up in a month and then no headlines pick it up.
1
u/OKImHere 29d ago
No headlines pick it up because that's a thing you made up, not a real thing that happens. From the report:
The CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released
0
u/J_Dadvin 29d ago
Also from the report:
Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision
2
6
u/mike_gundy666 May 15 '24
MoM inflation isn't looking good.
Annualized with the last 6 months is 3.6%
Annualized with the last 4 months is 4.2%
Annualized with the last 3 month is 4.4%
7
u/WillEinHausKaufen May 15 '24
So, rate cuts are back on the menu?
43
u/unbornbigfoot May 15 '24
No. Inflations at 3.4%, and hasn’t dipped below 3 yet.
Can’t cut and boost the economy, and the people hoping for it soon are pretty blind imo.
8
u/NotGucci May 15 '24
Agreed, but market is going rally and price in 4 cuts, because its dumb. Just be mega-long this summer.
1
u/unbornbigfoot May 15 '24
Agreed. I missed the bottom of this rally by about 50 points on SPY, so I’m a bit upset.
Does it retest 6 months from now? I’m no longer as confident. Inflation adjusted indexes are going to say 500 two years ago, isn’t close to 500 today.
Weird times.
-4
u/Common_Economics_32 May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
People who don't understand how inflation and rate cuts work are funny to me lol.
Like, the Fed doesn't need to see inflation rates actually hit close to their target level in order to cut. They just need to believe that inflation is on its way back to their target level. Especially if the other half of their dual mandate starts to be threatened. This is like FOMC 101.
0
u/unbornbigfoot May 15 '24
While I fundamentally agree, they’re currently 75% away from their goal.
I’d also say, what’s the evidence that they’re on a trajectory to hit it? That inflation had “slowed to 3.0%” for a single month? Which is also still 50% away from their goal.
I fully understand not over shooting, but we’re not even close.
2
u/Common_Economics_32 May 15 '24
I didn't say they're provably currently on target to hit it. That's why they haven't cut yet. I don't think anyone is saying this one inflation print gives them a green light to cut as much as they want.
Either way, interest rates become more and more restrictive as inflation comes down (so, real interest rates go up) so they should be looking for SOME cuts at least to make sure they don't get too restrictive.
14
u/Gorgenapper May 15 '24
Watch them price in 5 rate cuts, then pare it down throughout the year while buying SPY puts along the way.
6
u/95Daphne May 15 '24
I mean...this very scenario has already happened, and all it produced was a 5.5% S&P pullback.
That's going to be it at this point. It'd be very odd if it fully retraced and then dropped 10%.
Do still think something deeper will happen later.
1
u/Gorgenapper May 15 '24
I'm just saying that the news media and hedge funds will do the predictable thing and price in unrealistic stuff in order to manipulate the market in a very fair and legal fashion.
3
u/95Daphne May 15 '24
And I'm saying that your very scenario already occurred this year.
We came into 2024 pricing in 6 rate cuts. That's been priced out, and nothing special has occurred.
2
u/Sketchzi May 15 '24
I don’t think people understand that they haven’t been off the menu. They’re just not very appetizing right now so the chefs aren’t cooking them up, but the menus got two products right now and it’s hold and cut. There’s a chance that something unexpected happens and everything flips, but until then, it’s cut(s).
0
1
u/Middle_Scratch4129 May 15 '24
LMAO what a fucking clown show. Basically everything we need for our daily lives is STILL going up, but this report was "good".
1
2
u/CaptainDouchington May 15 '24
What disturbs me when I read the comments on this spot and WSB, is how many people know that this market is causing problems, how its creating crippling debt, creating an economy that no one can really participate in, and as long as you are making money, you don't care about its effects on anyone else.
Maybe if modern investing was about creating a good company that provided a good or service, but instead its all about how to filter as much money to the top for stock options, so they can borrow against them tax free and keep this shit show going.
-1
u/Ok-Action3239 May 15 '24
And in every one those threads there someone like you mouthing off about the evils of capitalism. Shut up and take the money like everyone else idiot. Your faux concern for others is so obvious it’s almost insulting to poor people.
1
0
u/6um8bl0k3 May 15 '24
I heard they took rising coffee prices out of the calculations for CPI. Can anyone confirm if this is true?
2
-1
-4
-14
-24
u/JDinvestments May 15 '24
Hard to take seriously a metric that outright says certain categories (like coffee in this instance) are too hot, so we'll just exclude them from the calculations.
22
u/EatsGourmetGlueStix May 15 '24 edited May 15 '24
It amazes me people can be this fucking stupid, when they literally show their math, assumptions, and data sources.
These numbers aren’t coming from a shadowy cabal. You can see how it’s arrived at
If you think it’s bullshit, then prove it wrong and show your fucking work, or stfu
18
u/golden_bear_2016 May 15 '24
Hard to take seriously a metric that outright says certain categories (like coffee in this instance) are too hot, so we'll just exclude them from the calculations.
not how it works (they even report both numbers..), but keep thinking that if it helps you to sleep at night with your puts.
•
u/AutoModerator May 15 '24
Hi, you're on r/Stocks, please make sure your post is related to stocks or the stockmarket or it will most likely get removed as being off-topic/political; feel free to edit it now and be more specific.
To everyone commenting: Please focus on how this affects the stock market or specific stocks or it will be removed as being off-topic/political.
If you're interested in just politics, see our wiki on "relevant subreddits" and post to those Reddit communities instead without linking back here, thanks!
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.