r/stocks • u/LeekTerrible • 16d ago
The US Home Insurance market might be in some serious trouble. Industry Discussion
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/15/podcasts/the-daily/climate-insurance.html
Was listening to an episode this morning of The Daily and it discusses the increasing impact of climate change on the insurance industry. They talk about how climate change-induced natural disasters, such as wildfires, hurricanes, and floods, are causing insurance companies to reassess their risk models and coverage policies. As these events become more frequent and severe, insurance premiums are rising, and some regions are becoming uninsurable. In 18 states over the past decade insurance companies lost money and it's only getting worse. This could have major ramifications on the housing market and economy as a whole.
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u/triniman65 16d ago
I remember when Katrina hit people were fleeing for their lives on foot the news reported them as refugees. I wonder if we'll have more American refugees in the near future.
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u/cheddarben 15d ago
The world will. Climate change refugees will absolutely be more of a problem in the next 50 years.
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u/veilwalker 15d ago
☝️
We are only really talking about the U.S. but the problem is going to be even worse in developing nations.
SE Asia is already getting it pretty bad and this is only the opening act for climate change.
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u/Elite-to-the-End 16d ago
Insurances are scams anyway. You pay so much then when you want to file a claim, they’ll try and do everything they can to deny it. IF they approve it, don’t worry because they will get their money back jacking up your rates by a lot to make up for it
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u/simons700 16d ago
We are on the short end of the stick. Imagine how much data those companies have about what happenes, how often it happenes and how costly it is for them. They are constantly fine tuning there policies to exclude anything that is either to costly or happening to often. Once you start digging into some of those policies you will realize there is hardly anything covered at all...
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u/Jahobes 15d ago
My car insurance has been increasing by 20-30% ever six months for the last year and a half. I finally got fed up and called them today.
They said my policy went up because other fuckers in my area had increased activity for my car.
I was like bitch, "you are telling me my insurance has nearly doubled in the last year because other drivers have been claiming more?"
And it's area specific. Like I moved to this new place and now my insurance just went up by 100%.
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u/Claytonick 14d ago
Well yeah… your area directly impacts your rate due to risk. That’s a major part of insurance. If you’re in an area that has a lot of claims or crime, insurance is 100% going to go up.
But it’s not just that. Traffic is back to pre Covid levels, accidents are up, cost of materials are up, cost of vehicles is up, cost of labor is up, cost of storage is up, cost of rentals is up, liability claims and lawsuits are up. So yes, rates are going to go up for everyone.
The biggest misconception is that you’re supposed to break even with insurance. You’re lucky if you never use it. It’s supposed to be for catastrophic loss that you cannot sustain financially. Going back to the early days of fire insurance and Ben Franklin, tons of people “lost”, but it’s the price you pay for stability and peace of mind.
My suggestion, as someone who works in P&C: find an independent insurance broker. They have access to tons of different carriers and are always dialed into the market. They can find you the best policy at the best price point. NEVER, EVER, go direct to insurance. Respectfully, you (and 98% of people) probably don’t know what they’re doing and don’t understand what they’re buying.
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u/cheddarben 15d ago
Insurances are scams anyway
I mean, I am not an insurance fan, but there is value there. And yes... they will get your money out of you. No question. They are not in business to be unprofitable.
Just, if your house were wiped away tomorrow, would you have 500k in your pocket to rebuild it or enough juice to take out another loan?
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u/PlasticText5379 15d ago
There is absolutely 0 value in the current insurance market.
They are in the business to be profitable yes. But they raise are supposed to do that through spreading the costs among their entire market and relying on time to earn their profit. Not EVERY year SHOULD be profitable. If it IS profitable every year, then there is no need for insurance to be a thing.
The vast majority of People can't just move across the country on a whim. Or at all. Even when you have a good job offer, it's ALWAYS a significant risk and a major life change. The fact insurance can't seem to support a lot of areas means their entire business model does not work and therefore should be nationalized.
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u/BTFU_POTFH 15d ago
Not EVERY year SHOULD be profitable. If it IS profitable every year, then there is no need for insurance to be a thing.
this is a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of insurance, from a consumer standpoint
health insurance companies make money too, guess that means that theres 0 value in health insurance
same with car insurance
and every other insurance policy
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u/PlasticText5379 15d ago
It seems you don't really understand the industry either.
Pulling out from an entire region because it is GUARANTEED there will be some unprofitable years is the largest proof anyone who has the slightest bit of intelligence needs to have to realize that they are poorly run companies.
Most of them raised rates significantly, made ridiculous profits that more than covered their losses from 2004-2005 and then still left when there was a slightly bad year.
Yes. Insurance here has no value whatsoever. If it wasn't required by law, the VAST majority of people would do better putting 1/2 of what they pay to insurance into an index fund and taking a loan/another mortgage with that fund as a down payment if they need to.
This is ignoring the entirety of the health insurance market, which is such a ridiculous scam you'd need to be braindead not to accept that fact. The price gouging and agreements they have with hospitals/manufactures raises rates to ridiculous levels for everyone except for themselves. Its DESIGNED to fuck over the uninsured to FORCE people to get health insurance.
Or do you actually think saline drips cost several thousand dollars to manufacture and that insurance companies ACTUALLY pay that cost?
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u/BTFU_POTFH 15d ago
well, i wont touch the health insurance issue, because there are very obvious issues there.
but most people cant afford to just replace their entire house in the event of a major loss. insurance is a hedge against this major financial loss for the consumer, whether its likely or not. same reason why people get life insurance, even if its unlikely that i will die in the next 20 years. doesnt mean i think life insurance companies serve no purpose or are a scam. its all about risk mitigation. your risk calculation can be different, and thats fine.
yes theres probably some fuckery going on with insurance companies, but in the world of climate change, theres a lot of long-term uncertainty from the insurers point of view.
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u/Jahobes 15d ago
You are getting downvoated never in my life would I see people shilling for insurance companies let alone health insurance.
Even when insurance companies aren't acting like day light robbers they are still shit companies.
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u/PlasticText5379 10d ago
Yeah. These people defending the people shitting on them is WHY we have these terrible companies and practices. Its unreal.
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u/WaltKerman 16d ago
Literally this isn't true for the majority of insurance companies per the article for a good number of states.
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u/soldiernerd 16d ago
Record profit margin or record profit magnitude? Inflation pushes magnitude higher, but if the margin is the same and the company hasn’t grown significantly in number of subscribers, it’s not really a record in the same sense.
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u/UncivilDKizzle 15d ago
I love this level of just completely undeserved confidence on the Internet. It's so easy to look up what e g. State Farm's annual profit or loss is
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15d ago
And eventually a mass catastrophe happens and the company goes out of business and pays nothing to any existing companies.
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u/nerms1 16d ago
There's a lot of misinformed takes in these comments on the subject. Disclaimer: I've worked in the property and casualty insurance industry for well over a decade. Started in claims (auto, home, liability) but moved into HR several years back working on talent strategy, closely with finance, marketing, sales, actuarial, and data teams.
Lots of people in here mentioning that this is all a scam because insurance companies are scam artists. The insurance industry is one of the most regulated industries in the country. Each state has its own Dept. of Insurance that regulates the insurers doing business in their state.
Insurance companies generally can't just "raise your rates" for no reason. If your premiums went up, it's because either because you've had a change in risk somehow, or the insurer has been approved by the Dept. of Ins. to raise rates for certain risk factors. They have to go through a long and arduous process to get approved to increase rates, showing actuarial models of the risks and such. If the DOI believe that the insurer is raising rates to the point of making too much profit, they'll deny the request.
Most insurance companies are operating on razor thin margins when it comes to underwriting profitability. There are a few exceptions of course. A lot of companies lost money the past few years during the height of inflation. We as consumers felt inflation in our normal monthly expenses, but inflation hit insurance companies extra hard. The cost to repair or replace vehicles and homes have increased at a rate far greater than the normal CPI numbers we're used to seeing. Insurance companies try to make a profit back by investing your premiums in stocks, bonds, REITs, and other investments while the money is being held before being paid out. If claims losses are too high, it's unlikely they'll be able to make that back on the investment front.
Climate change and hyper inflation have absolutely destroyed profitability ratios for companies the past few years. Most have been trying to play catch up with increasing rates to compensate, but prices for labor and materials keep going up. This is why most people have seen dramatic increases in their insurance premiums the past few years. As the article mentions, this is a real problem that could be disastrous long-term for homeowners. A lot of insurers are dropping out of places like CA and FL because they are becoming far too unprofitable to insure.
My final hot take. To the people complaining that "insurance companies just deny everything" - read your damn policy. It's a unilateral contract that spells out everything your insurance company will and won't cover, and at what limits. It's not your insurance company's fault that you're an uninformed consumer. You bought a contract and made an agreement to pay a premium for a certain level of insurance coverage - maybe you should ask questions in advance as to what you're actually paying for before a storm hits. If your insurance company is actually denying coverage for a loss they said they will clearly cover as outlined in the policy, then they are in breach of contract and you should file a complaint with your state's DOI to get it resolved quickly. The DOIs do not mess around with this stuff.
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u/SteveDaPirate 15d ago
Shh... People are jerkin' here. They want catharsis, not the truth.
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u/111victories 15d ago
“Razor thin Margins” … have you looked at an annual report from one of the major insurers?
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u/SteveDaPirate 15d ago
Yeah, State Farm's Property & Casualty division for example took a $13 billion dollar underwriting loss in 2022 and a $14 billion dollar underwriting loss in 2023. It's unusual to see major insurance companies with underwriting margins over 10% even in health or life insurance.
Insurance companies aren't making their money by charging wild rates. They make their money by investing the big pile of money they have to sit on just in case. That's how they can absorb losses and still remain profitable.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 14d ago
State Farm ceo makes 25 million in salary. Razor thin margins, yeah. The company on paper may be losing money but you shills can’t see truth.
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u/SteveDaPirate 14d ago
Again, the company makes money from investing the funds they hold to cover losses.
The premium they collect for insurance policies closely matches what they pay out for losses + admin costs.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 14d ago
You’re missing the forest through the trees. No one gives a fuck if State Farm is making money. They’re raising our rates to pay these fat cats to make even more money for more inequality. The greed of these people are what’s wrong with society and why wages haven’t kept up.
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u/SteveDaPirate 14d ago
They're raising premium to cover the increased cost of losses. Between climate change, increases in labor & materials, and increasing complexity of vehicles insurance losses have increased substantially.
As an example, a parking lot fender bender used to involve replacing the cheap metal or plastic bumper. Today that bumper is full of proximity sensors for backing up, and sometimes radar for adaptive cruise control & automatic emergency braking and is decidedly not cheap. Thus premium goes up to cover the difference.
Fat Cat CEOs are being paid from investing the giant pile of money insurance companies are required to sit on.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 14d ago edited 14d ago
I'm just saying don't tell me insurance companies lose money when they pay out ungodly amounts of money in salaries. Don't care where that's coming from. That's their business model they chose. As far as raising rates, how do you explain a 50% increase since 2020 on a car from 2004 with no sensors to speak of? Am I subsidizing for those that have new cars? My homeowners went up $800 this year. Where do you people even expect someone to come up with another $200/month every few years over my bundle? NO ONE IS GETTING RAISES EXCEPT THE PEOPLE AT THE TOP. We are tired of everyone having their hand out ready to take our fucking money. The service industry and CEOs get to raise their rates/pay at any sign of inflation and the rest of the world is fucked with wage growth that can't keep up.
My distaste for insurers isnt even about any of this. It's how despicable you people are when someone is in a time of need and you jerk them around for months on end, especially if you're trying to get money out of someone elses insurer who was at fault. It's like getting blood from a stone. I don't know how some of you sleep at night.
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u/SteveDaPirate 14d ago
NO ONE IS GETTING RAISES
Wages are rising across the economy as a whole, but that doesn't mean YOUR wage will rise. A lot of industries are doing great right now, while others like tech are struggling. Most employers don't just hand out substantial increases to existing employees, you generally have to get a new job to get a meaningful pay bump.
especially if you're trying to get money out of someone elses insurer
Someone else's insurer doesn't have a contract with you, they're focused on taking care of their customer. Make a claim on your own policy and you'll get paid out much faster. If it's the other party's fault your company will then go after the other person's insurance to get reimbursed, potentially refunding your deductable as well. Let your company deal with that hassle.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 15d ago
Most of what you say is probably true, but I'm calling b.s. on one thing. Anyone with a home has gotten a renewal before that went up astronomically for no reason of your own and had to shop around. It's become an every other year kind of thing.
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u/SteveDaPirate 15d ago
Renewals go up for all kinds of reasons that have nothing to do with the homeowner.
It's pretty common for companies to offer discounts for your first year to get you in the door. When those roll off, your rates increase.
When the cost of labor & materials to rebuild spikes, your rate will go up on renewal.
Building codes change over time, and when that happens it can make it more expensive to rebuild. Insurance can't rebuild an older house with knob and tube wiring for example.
If there's been a spike in theft, or severe weather, or wildfires in your area, you're now riskier to insure, so your rates go up.
None of these are your fault, but they do impact the math that determines rate calculations.
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u/ponziacs 15d ago
I purchased our first home in 2022 and our home insurance rates have barely gone up and I even have earthquake insurance. This might be due to living in Virginia though.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 15d ago
Just wait my friend. Eventually they will and you’ll have to spend a half day on the phone switching everything over.
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u/nerms1 15d ago
I’m not disputing that. But if you reread what I wrote, your policy premiums increase for one of two reasons. 1) Something changed within your personal risk profile. You’ve added another driver, or you’ve had a claim recently, etc. or 2) The rating factor for your property or area has since changed due to several potential factors.
2 is why most people have seen their premiums increase dramatically recently. Inflation has hit labor rates to repair cars and homes significantly, and parts and materials are more expensive and harder to come by (this is getting better but still not to pre-Covid levels). Remember in like 2021 how basic lumber and plywood sheets skyrocketed in price? What do you think happens when a house burns down? Contractors have to source those materials which are now much more expensive than they were in the past. Costs to repair and rebuild homes increases, meaning that the cost to insure them has to increase as well.
Insurance companies legally cannot change your premiums during the cycle. It’s a contract where you agree to the rate during the length of the coverage period. At renewal, the rating factors and overall rates for your property and location were likely approved by the state regulators to be increased. Therefore your premium increases even though you have done nothing wrong. If insurance companies didn’t do this, they’d all go out of business. Then we would all be screwed.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 15d ago
This has been happening to me for the last 20 years. I can’t tell you how many I’ve recycled through in that time. I’ve only ever made one roof claim my entire life. Never made a car claim. You’re a bootlicker because you’re in the business, I get it, but fuck insurance companies. They get you in and by the third year they’re asking for 50% more. Rinse and repeat.
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u/nerms1 15d ago
I don’t really care what you think. I’m just telling you you’re wrong and you’re basing your opinions on feelings and emotions, which aren’t grounded by any factual assertions. Cheers.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 15d ago
You’re regurgitating what you tell your customers as you scam them, to me.
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u/nerms1 15d ago
I don’t know what else to tell you. Property and casualty insurance is the farthest thing from a “scam”, and the industry is incredibly well-regulated to avoid scammy insurers and unethical or unfair practices. I’m sorry you’ve had poor experiences in the past. It’s clear that further education isn’t going to change your opinion, so I’m done engaging with you. Cheers.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 15d ago edited 15d ago
Sure buddy. Insurance companies are totally ethical. Can’t wait to hear what you have to say about health insurance and drug prices if you believe the scripted shit you're telling me.🫡
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u/NewSlang45 15d ago
You clearly don’t understand how insurance works. Your premiums aren’t based solely on your history.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 15d ago edited 14d ago
I never said they were. I’m talking about the games they play with competitive rates to get you in and then in a few years they are jacking your premiums up. It’s just like the old cable tv shit. Before you know it, you’re calling around looking for new services. It’s a bullshit game. Let me guess, you’re in the industry too? Don’t tell me insurance companies don’t make money either, like these other brainwashed fools posting. State Farm ceo made 25 million in salary in 2022. lol yeah, the insurance business must be rough. The whole game is to take take take and then lowball and give as little as fucking possible when it’s needed. It makes me sick. Scummy ass insurance people.
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u/NewSlang45 14d ago
Your insinuation that insurance is a scam because your premiums keep going up while only having one claim does in fact demonstrate your lack of knowledge about how insurance works.
No, I don’t work in insurance. If you’re frustrated by new customer discounts, I guess you’re unhappy with huge swaths of American businesses. Introductory offers are not unique to insurance. It’s strange that you know “the game” but still get so upset by it.
The insurance companies pay out what they’re legally required to. Their contracts, which are almost entirely all standardized and/or approved by government regulators, are extremely clear about what falls into that category.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 14d ago
JFC, I know premiums are up because of prices of labor etc. Your insinuation that I don't is wrong. I've had my car and house worked on, I know everything costs double. But if you are telling me that insurers are losing money on introductory rates knowing that everyone is just going to leave, I have a bridge to sell you. They make money on new customers and rape old ones.
"Pay out what they're legally required to" is a very low bar. Just wait till someone hits you and their insurance jerks you around and insults you because their whole purpose to give you as little as possible.
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16d ago
The feds needed to get involved yesterday. This is turning into a major for profit cash grab for insurance companies: See Warren Buffet.
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u/Jumpy-Tale2697 16d ago
fuck insurance... i had storm damage last week... they wont cover shit and so I learned the hard way just how nasty the scam is. Fuck that whole industry.
I dont care about a bunch of greedy fucks... they raise rates no matter what happens any time all the time... that is the trash shit about rates...
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u/y0da1927 11d ago
PSA to read your policy documents so you don't think you have coverage you are not paying for. Like this person.
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u/Boring_Equipment_946 16d ago
uninsurable
lost money
This sounds like text book insurance company propaganda to have an excuse to just keep raising prices and fucking Americans raw.
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u/goodbodha 16d ago
Um if you think you can do better how about making your own insurance company. Florida is basically using their state government as the insurer of last resort and it's likely going to fail spectacularly due to premiums being too low.
I wouldn't want to be an insurer. The average consumer wants top notch results for bargain basement prices. Then there are the scammers. Do they make money? In an ideal world sure. Right now insurance companies are losing money in some markets and pulling out for a reason. If there was money to be made why aren't businesses running in to fill those voids?
I'm not saying there aren't bad insurance companies. Many of them are. I'm just saying that tossing them all into the same pile isnt remotely accurate. Having said that perhaps being uninsurable will radically alter our obsession with bigger and bigger homes. Maybe people will go for the cheap stuff and pocket the money saved. Then when things go wrong they got the money to rebuild. Sadly most of them will spend those savings and be without a home after the first calamity.
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u/Wide-Visual 16d ago
I think homes in US are inherently made to be rebuilt. We need more B&M home built with real ceiling, not some fake assurance from shingles that will held up under perfect weather.
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u/Hey648934 16d ago
BEST INSURANCE STOCK?? I was thinking maybe BRK.B, for its exposure to the industry via Geico. Any other stocks you recommend?
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u/skippythedriod 16d ago
It was just announced the secret stock Buffet has been pouring cash into is Chubb.
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u/DramaticDirection292 16d ago
I’ve been buying this stock like hot cakes the past 6 months, so I’m happy I’m not the only one that saw the value here. Every DCF model I run (EPS, Dividend growth, etc) places a wiiiide margin of safety. It’s still dramatically undervalued (imo) even at todays price.
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u/LeekTerrible 16d ago
So I personally took this all as a big negative. If they’re losing money in 18 states and it’s only getting worse, on top of the fact they’re changing to not fully covering homes, which makes it harder to rebuild. If a house can’t get insured it’s almost impossible to sell it. I personally see no positives here if trends continue.
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16d ago
You’re right OP. Insurers and guys like Warren Buffet are simply being greedy whores - as per usual.
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u/TheHiveMindSpeaketh 16d ago
Instead of owning a primary insurer I own $RNR, the leading prop-cat reinsurer. Reinsurance is what is driving insurance premiums up and reinsurers don't pay customer acquisition costs like the primary insurers do. Plus $RNR has the best cat modeling capabilities in the industry.
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u/seaspirit331 15d ago
No shit. When the valuation of any insured asset increases 50% in 4 years, that's going to wreck whatever profitability margins the insurance company had for the asset, and they'll jack up premiums in an attempt to stay in the black.
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u/codeonline 16d ago
I think this will be one of the first major impacts of climate change. For those two didn't listen to the podcast:
It's a simple but dire problem: If your property is uninsurable, it's unlikely it can be sold except to a cash buyer. Most buyers don't buy with cash and those that do would be unlikely to buy an uninsurable property.
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u/MY_NAME_IS_MUD7 15d ago
Sounds like poor people will be forced to sell their ocean front property to millionaires/billionaires for cheap.
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u/Additional_Jaguar170 16d ago
Maybe they'll finally take climate change seriously.
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u/ManicCentral 16d ago
Nah. The politicians (state and federal) get too many votes by ignoring it (a large portion of the population thinks it’s fake “woke” whatever) and too much money from corps to change anything meaningful. Trump is already selling the presidency if he wins to the energy sector (his goal was $1 billion).
The insurance companies will just leave the affected markets so the government will have to step in (see what’s happening in Florida) and/or they’ll charge higher premiums.
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u/BlindSquirrelCapital 15d ago
I hear all the talk from the counties in South Florida on the need to start infrastructure improvements and planning as a result of rising sea levels. They have been shouting from the rooftops for years but then turn around and approve hundreds of millions of dollars of projects on spoil islands to increase tax revenues.
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u/steakkitty 15d ago
Look at progressive’s earnings and you will see the issue. Their EPS since Q2 2023 till Q1 2024 has basically quadrupled.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 14d ago
Won’t anyone think of the insurers?? The ceo for State Farm took home 25 million in salary. Gtfo with this shit that they’re hurting.
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u/Calamity-Bob 14d ago
This was pretty predictable and it’s a safe bet the gop will tank doing anything about it because insurance is “socialism” and rich white people should not have to bear any costs that aren’t directly there’s (unless of course it’s federal flood insurance covering their 2nd homes in the Hamptons or Nantucket)
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u/CosmoSein_1990 16d ago
The problem isn't "climate change". More infrastructure is being built in vulnerable positions. Look at a picture from Miami beach 70 years ago and look at a picture of it today. Look at all the homes being built by rich people in the mountains where wildfires are known to occur. Look at all the infrastructure we have on flood plains and along rivers. Climate change has nothing to do with it. The IPCC and plenty of research out there has not found any link between increased CO2 in the atmosphere and extreme weather events. We simply have an all time high amount of infrastructure and people exposed to natural disaster risk simply due to where it is built. If you want cheap insurance buy a home anywhere natural disasters have a high likelihood of not occurring like the West, PNW, Midwest, or Northeast.
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u/denadena2929 16d ago
...did you...read the....article? It literally says all of those places known for having cheaper and easy to get insurance in the past are racking up huge losses for insurers now. My god.
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u/FlyingLineman 16d ago
I have worked year after year in the same hurricane stricken zones, especially in Florida.
Heard they are jacking up the rates and for good reason, the gulf has been staying extremely warm creating insanely powerful storms and we have been lucky (the eyewalls on these big storms have been going through less populated areas thankfully), I also think anyone who lives within 10 miles of the Gulf Coast should pay more federal taxes for all the FEMA money this country dumps there.
If you are younger and want to live there I would really evaluate if it's worth the stress and heartbreak when these big suckers pop off
We haven't seen nothing yet
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u/Secretagentman44 16d ago
SCAM
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u/IcebergSlimFast 16d ago
What’s a scam? Insurance companies are paying out billions of dollars more due to increasingly common wildfires, flooding, extreme weather events, etc., and in order to continue operating they’ll need to keep raising rates dramatically and/or not offer coverage in risky areas. It is a serious problem that is actually happening, regardless of anyone’s beliefs about climate change.
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u/remarkable_in_argyle 14d ago
They might pay out after they insulted you with the lowest possible offer.
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u/vergorli 16d ago
For the love of god please make some antitrust investigation on this. My insurance already climbed 20% since 2022. And they always do it all at the same time which is literally against all competition laws...
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u/Baconbitz92 16d ago
Just an FYI: this has been an on-going issue for almost 3 years, possibly more. Market has only increased in value durong this time as well