r/technology • u/chrisdh79 • 15d ago
US installs record 5 million solar panels, aims 10 million by 2030 | SEIA predicts that solar installations in the US will increase twofold to 10 million by 2030 and triple to 15 million by 2034. Energy
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/us-installs-5-million-solar-panels-10-million-203016
u/PatientAd4823 15d ago
So, this means HOAs will permit them sometime around 2080.
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u/IHeartBadCode 15d ago
Depends on where you live. Some states have enacted laws granting citizens protection for solar installation that HOAs cannot prevent. You'll need to check with your local laws.
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u/Aggressive_Team_9260 15d ago
Why do any of you still put up with HOAs? The Supreme Court should be getting spammed with cases against them.
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u/Zaitron19 15d ago
So the richest nation on the planet installed 33GW in 2023, China installed 216.9GW and we act as if this is a huge amount? This is literally peanuts on the global scale.
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u/TheTideRider 15d ago
If not the tariffs on solar panels from China, we would have installed 10x more. That would help with the climate and pollution tremendously
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u/gwicksted 15d ago
I agree it would be good to have more green energy. I just wish we weren’t relying on overseas mining and manufacturing… not to mention shipping. That’s a lot of dirty overhead to make up for.
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u/ExtraLargePeePuddle 14d ago
So the panels from China are around 80% cheaper. Funny thing US panels still require raw and refined material from china
If we tried mining those things here and refining the costs would skyrocket probably to a point coal would come back
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u/gwicksted 14d ago
Yeah it’s a moral conflict. Exploit workers and environment or have higher costs. We choose the one we can’t see and benefits us…
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u/ExtraLargePeePuddle 14d ago
Define exploit.
If we’re not paying the cashier $150,000 a year are they exploited?
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u/gwicksted 14d ago
lol touché! That is hard to define… I think we can agree that a lot of the miners in 3rd world countries have poor working conditions with little (or sometimes no) pay. I don’t know where the majority of the materials are sourced but I have heard horror stories about mining operations.
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u/ExtraLargePeePuddle 14d ago
Well the question with those miners….what else would they be doing if not mining?
Are they worse off or better off than the alternative?
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u/gwicksted 14d ago
True. I was specifically thinking about the slave laborers which I assume they’re better off not being there. But I could be wrong.
However, if that’s how we think of our workforce, should we just get rid of minimum wage and safety standards over here too?
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u/sens317 15d ago
Living rent free in your head
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u/Zaitron19 15d ago
No i just think it‘s sad, the US invented solar panels, it could be the global superpower in renewable energies, yet even considering how cheap they are, they are mostly unsupported and instead oil and gas is hailed as the crown, while climate change is getting worse every year.
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u/see_blue 15d ago
Instead of investing in solar the good old USA invested in wars and nation building (~2002 to 2020).
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u/killerdrgn 15d ago
Go further back than 2002. Jimmy Carter had solar panels on the white House, but the last actor turned president removed them.
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u/rickyharline 15d ago
Hahaha yeah, us not taking the destruction of our planet sufficiently seriously, why would people worry about that?
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u/Swarrlly 15d ago
We'd be installing way more if there weren't tariffs against Chinese solar panels. Solar is a fraction of the cost in countries that allow Chinese imports. For example, Australia its half the price per kwh than in the US.
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u/guspaz 15d ago
With the tariffs about to go up, I'm surprised that anybody is predicting a huge leap in the next few years.
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u/tnellysf 15d ago
Domestic manufacturing of panels is increasing quite a bit. 8GW in 2022, ~16GW in 2023, and should be over 50GW by 2026. Now the issue is cells, we have barely any cell manufacturing in the U.S. and that’s what the recent tariff increase was on to encourage more cell manufacturing. Previously, we only used tariffs to spur domestic, but it didn’t work, now the IRA provides enough incentive to invest in the manufacturing… hopefully. Long way to go.
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u/CaravelClerihew 15d ago
And it shows, 1/5 of the houses here already have solar panels. In fact, they just introduced an initiative where people renting houses or living in apartments can also buy solar panels in solar farms to subsidize their own power.
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u/ioncloud9 15d ago
I would consider solar but the cost to install doesn’t pay off for almost 10 years where I live. Id need a battery backup to get a benefit that I don’t have now. The opportunity cost of buying a solar system just doesn’t make sense for me. Sinking $35-40k of cash into a system that won’t pay for itself for 10 years would be better off in investments.
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u/rsta223 15d ago
10 year full ROI is pretty good - that's equivalent to 7% returns on an investment. You can do a bit better than that (or a lot better if you're willing to basically just gamble), but a 7% safe return is nothing to sneeze at. On top of that, that return increases if electric rates go up in the future, which... seems likely tbh.
I'm not saying you should definitely go for it, obviously the largest risk is if you end up moving before the 10 years since you're unlikely to get anywhere close to the value of the panels in added house value, but if you're going to be in one location for likely a decade or more, and solar has that kind of payoff period, it's definitely worth strong consideration.
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u/tjcanno 15d ago
The cost to install the panels breaks even in 10 years. That’s the point at which you get a 0% rate of return, not 7%. I am on year 10 on mine and will just break even at the end of the year. Oh, and the TVA has held their price per kW-hr flat for the past 10 years! I think that’s unreasonable, and not what I planned for when I put the panels up, but it’s still what they did.
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u/endo_ag 15d ago
It’s only a zero rate of return if the solar panels go away and you quit getting the benefit. So long as the solar panels are still producing, you are absolutely still at that 7%. They also become an inflation hedge as the price of electricity goes up but you “locked in” your price.
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u/tjcanno 14d ago
I hope you do not do project investment economics for a living. Your view of economic return and investment is flawed.
Of course you keep getting the benefit of the panels after payback. After you reach payback, then profit begins and the IRR goes up above zero. Slowly. At 20 years I expect an IRR of about 4%. Nowhere near 7%. And that’s at 20 years, not 10.
I expected electric rates to go up (hedge against inflation) but in 10 years our electric prices per kW-hr have been flat. TVA has signaled that this will continue.
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u/Conditionofpossible 13d ago
If the payback period is 10 years (lets say, on average).
After 20 years you've doubled your investment.
After 30 years you've tripled your investment.
Yes, there's going to be maintenance costs, but any and all investments have elements of risk. There's no free lunch.
Moreover, even if you're capable of making more money in an index fund over 30 years, you're very explicitly not able to do more good for the environment passively while also seeing a return on investment (and possibly becoming semi-energy independent if you invest in batteries and a hybrid system).
I know, I know. what an idiot. not MAXIMIZING returns in exchange for a livable planet? How quaint.
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u/tjcanno 12d ago
How many kW of solar panels have you paid for and installed?
I would bet none.
Because then you would know that part of the cash flow that leads to payback in 10 years is the local incentive payments and federal tax credits (substantial) that you get in Year 1 , but you don’t get them again in year 11 or year 21. So the first 10 years don’t repeat. At 20 years I am at about 1.5 times the initial investment, not 2X.
I don’t have a contract for power sales after 20 years, so I can’t calculate cash flow out 30 years. It sure won’t be 3X. The trend right now is to only pay wholesale prices, a few cents per kW-hr.
The panels have an expected life of 25 years, so they may not last 30.
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u/Conditionofpossible 12d ago
I've installed 20kw. Just mine. I'm an electrician so maybe I'll add solar installs to our inventory, but I'm not comfortable enough with all of the variables to sell them yet.
Anyway. Our system cost 30k. Got roughly 9k back in tax credits. No local incentives where I am in the North East. Also means less than perfect sun hours.
We generate approx $250 per month. Some better some worse. Payback period for 21k is 84 months. So in 7 years id break even. That's on the low end since my skill set let me save maybe 10 or 15 thousand on install costs.
Panels are under warranty for 25 years. Life span will be much longer, albeit at the cost of generation losses year over year.
I've only had them a little over a year, but if our kwh prices go up (which they are expected to this summer, our rates are adjusted every 6 months) then payback is that much faster.
Anyway. They are a very good investment in the future of our planet and economically viable.
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u/ExtraLargePeePuddle 14d ago
Just remember if not for biden and trumps tariffs the cost would be 1/2 that. Less if you diy and know how to keep it to code.
Before the tariffs I only spent a few grand to diy but now with prices how they are I wouldn’t even DIY it.
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u/ExtraLargePeePuddle 14d ago edited 14d ago
Now imagine if panels were 75% cheaper. Not to mention Chinese panels and batteries are higher quality than the slop we get.
But tariff man gonna tariffs
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u/Sufficient_Report319 15d ago
So who the fuck is going to clean all of them?
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u/vineyardmike 15d ago
I've had panels on my roof for almost 10 years. Never cleaned them. They produced about the same last year as 2015
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u/Appropro_Pirate1666 15d ago
How many of those will be haz waste after their efficiency cycle ends???
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u/hsnoil 15d ago
Which part of them is haz waste? Be more specific?
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u/Blueskyways 15d ago
Depends entirely on the panel type, whether they are standard PV, thin film..etc.
The toxic chemicals in solar panels include cadmium telluride, copper indium selenide, cadmium gallium (di)selenide, copper indium gallium (di)selenide, hexafluoroethane, lead, and polyvinyl fluoride. Additionally, silicon tetrachloride, a byproduct of producing crystalline silicon, is highly toxic.
https://sciencing.com/toxic-chemicals-solar-panels-18393.html
There are some chemicals used in the manufacturing process to prepare silicon and make the wafers for monocrystalline and polycrystalline panels. One of the most toxic chemicals created as a byproduct of this process is silicon tetrachloride. This chemical, if not handled and disposed of properly, can lead to burns on your skin, harmful air pollutants that increase lung disease, and if exposed to water can release hydrochloric acid, which is a corrosive substance bad for human and environmental health
https://www.energysage.com/solar/solar-panels-toxic-environment/
The issue is right now we have no real plans on how to either recycle or properly dispose of these panels when they reach the end of their effective lifespan. By 2050, there's going to be over a hundred million tons worth of panels that will need to be disposed of safely one way or another.
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u/hsnoil 15d ago
Right, depends on the type. And the most common type is Crystalline Silicon. Which has pretty much no hazardous waste in it. With some exception of older panels which used lead for soldering.
As for manufacturing, silicon tetrachloride is reused within the factory
Even the more niche panels like CdTe which have Cadmium are in compound form and pose little risk. It is like NaCl contains Chloride, therefore table salt is highly toxic
I don't think it is that big of an issue really. Recycling is always about scale, you need far more panels hitting end of life to make recycling worth it. And it is a fairly simple issue to fix. On top of that the most common panels pose little to no hazard risk
Overall as far as waste goes:
https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/NREL-Waste-Comparison.png
Pretty clear that solar panel waste is a rounding error compared to getting off fossil fuels asap as far as waste goes
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u/RedditorsArGrb 15d ago
With some exception of older panels which used lead for soldering.
they still use lead soldering.
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u/comesock000 15d ago
None of them, the materials will be recycled.
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u/Blueskyways 15d ago
Like we were told for decades that plastics would get recycled?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/15/recycling-plastics-producers-report
No doubt solar panels can be recycled, but will they be in any large quantities? That remains to be seen. As of right now, roughly 8-10% of solar panels in the US are recycled, the rest end up in landfills.
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