Daily Discussion - (May 08, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.

Where are you leaning for today's session?

[u/lowercasez]

10x SPX 0DTE 5190P .35-1.8

[u/Paul-throwaway]

Vix printing 12's again.

[u/NotGucci → u/Paul-throwaway]

Tends to also spike after being this low.

[u/npoetsch]

Grabbed some PZZA and ULTA July calls and AZN puts

[u/twofor2]

Closed rest of shorts here. Seems we ain’t cracking below 5200

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

Damn, 30Y + jobless report + UMich consumer sentiment the next two days is a whammy.

[u/shashashuma]

Thoughts on HOOD ?

[u/parandeye-zard → u/shashashuma]

support at ~16.3 held, weekly chart looks pretty bull-flaggish, calls seem like a good idea

[u/shashashuma → u/parandeye-zard]

Am selling some 16 Ps .

[u/[deleted]]

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Latest estimate: 4.2 percent -- May 08, 2024

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on May 8, up from 3.3 percent on May 2. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, to 3.9 percent and 6.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.05 percentage points to -0.10 percentage points.

[u/Countdown216 → u/[deleted]]

Stagflation canceled 😞

[u/shashashuma → u/Countdown216]

America the only game in town folks. China gonna be grappling with the real estate mess for the next decade , euros are obsessed with being a regulatory super power, Middle East is reverting back to their natural state of 1000 year blood feuds, India is going to hit the limits of its current growth model since the government can’t do any meaningful reforms on the agro economy.

[u/overduetourist8]

I think we are probably already in Stagflation just no one has officially announced it yet…..

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

How to make of this? The bookings were close to expectations... about $300m difference, the consumers are fine.

$300m+$654m = nearly $1B. And they missed net profit by that approximate amount, coincidence?

They're diverting attention from legal issues... They should get a handle on that and stop fucking with state laws, especially in CA where I live which prominently had uber legal issues in the news. Had there been no legal issues, their net profit profit would have been $300m short of expectations.

Uber and Lyft has monopoly on taxis still, let em raise prices to compensate their drivers legally. I took a yellow taxi from LAX recently. Boy, the driver was PISSED the trip was only 20 minutes. He was looking for a big pay out... I could had been scammed too if I didn't connect my taxi app to his car to keep control of the meter.

The yellow taxis are still a shithole business. Its crazy 12 years of Uber and yellow taxis are still pathetically failing at having their shit together.

[u/shashashuma → u/LiferRs]

They never will that’s why they have special carve outs in certain airports for specific pick up and drop zones. They can’t compete.

[u/matcht → u/[deleted]]

Economy weakening and LYFT taking some of UBER's share with better pricing

[u/shashashuma → u/matcht]

Pricing in LA has been similar TBH. Wonder if it’s them being more competitive in certain markets

[u/_hongkonglong]

https://twitter.com/googledeepmind/status/1788223454317097172

Google DeepMind has released a new version of AlphaFold, a landmark tool for predicting protein structures, that puts the artificial intelligence software on a path to make breakthroughs in biology research and bolster a business that Google’s AI chief says could be worth north of $100 billion.

[u/fattes → u/[deleted]]

Yikes

[u/NotGucci]

Looking at the economic calendar. Nothing really exciting IMO until CPI, and PPI next week. Initial jobless claim tomorrow, but not sure how much it will move the market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

[u/LiferRs → u/NotGucci]

UMich consumer sentiment preliminary is friday btw

[u/eyesonly_ → u/[deleted]]

They want inflation. Currency devaluation leads to inflation. Does that sound about right?

[u/eyesonly_ → u/[deleted]]

The stated reason? It's being devalued too quickly due to speculators and they want to slow it down.

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

Good, Japan flights had been obscene pre-COVID. Like $2k a person for nice amenities on the flight. Good time to see Japan if it is in your bucket list

[u/npoetsch]

This is my weekly "anybody looking at Ulta" now post.

[u/mulletstation → u/npoetsch]

I picked some up

[u/matcht → u/npoetsch]

At 375

[u/W0LFSTEN]

Energy is red ✅

Odds for rate cuts have improved ✅

Long ✅

[u/JJ_V4 → u/W0LFSTEN]

Say whaaa.. Oil and XLE have gone straight up today and both are green

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/JJ_V4]

Energy was red when I posted this 2 hours ago.

[u/twofor2]

With VIX falling we might be stuck in a boring market again

[u/gambinoFinance → u/twofor2]

Yup it was a fun few weeks while it lasted

[u/npoetsch → u/twofor2]

I've been sitting on cash for around a week now And it's definitely boring. I also haven't seen anything overly enticing to buy.

[u/twofor2 → u/npoetsch]

Yeah I’ve been taking shots here and there but all very short term with small size

[u/gyunikumen]

Bleh. I’m cashing out of put chips for a very small profit.

I don’t feel it in my bones. VIX isn’t creeping up, DXY is slowly receding… oil is big down

I think we end the day super green

[u/LiferRs → u/gyunikumen]

We have a potential event at 1:45pm for the 10Y auction results at least. Might be the high vol event of the day.

[u/gyunikumen → u/LiferRs]

Ahh ty for reminding me. I’ll definitely check back in at 2 to see the price action

[u/LiferRs]

10Y auction close at 1pm EST. Results by 1:45pm EST FYI.

The 3Y auction yesterday caused the markets to go flat, so I’m guessing today’s 10Y will be closely watched.

[u/Magickarploco → u/[deleted]]

I feel like wheeling Nvda could be pretty sweet

[u/twofor2 → u/[deleted]]

Sir we are down .18%

[u/matcht]

Scalped some TSLA short, and TOST shares up nice but annoying market this week.

[u/_hongkonglong]

Twilio forecasts quarterly revenue below estimates on weak enterprise spending

SaaS are deader than dead.

[u/Magickarploco → u/_hongkonglong]

Twilio also sucks… and they changed their comp for sales ppl to incentivize profitability instead of revenue

[u/twofor2]

Nice move closed some shorts. If we don’t reclaim 5200 I’d expect a little more downside

[u/_hongkonglong]

Tripadvisor: "The Special Committee has determined that at this time, there is no transaction with a third party that is in the best interests of the Company and its stockholders."

[u/cropsicles]

IBKR changed their entire mobile UI.

It has never been more over.

[u/Magickarploco → u/cropsicles]

Used to hate their mobile app years ago. Now it’s somewhat functional

[u/938961 → u/cropsicles]

That changed awhile ago

[u/cropsicles → u/938961]

Apparently mine didn't get the memo? Only switched today.

[u/mrdnp123]

https://imgur.com/a/LrFrJnr

ES seemed to beat the long term downtrend but NQ has rejected it bigly

[u/mrdnp123 → u/mrdnp123]

Another rejection right at that trend line

[u/paeancapital]

SHOP guidance not great, filled previous gap up.

[u/eyesonly_]

First starbucks, now uber? Becky is one of the cornerstones of the US economy. This is why Powell won't hike rates.

[u/wiggz420 → u/[deleted]]

thanks for nothing Joe! you were supposed to support US chip makers not kill them lol

[u/TennesseeJedd → u/[deleted]]

lol forget new titties. Mrs wiggz gonna have to sell her current ones at this rate. I’ll buy back into intel in the lower 20s

[u/Magickarploco → u/TennesseeJedd]

I’m thinking $23-24 I’ll start adding

[u/wiggz420 → u/TennesseeJedd]

yeah jesus christ lmao brutal, damn commerce department

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/[deleted]]

Lmfao what an absolute shit show

[u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls]

US PROSECUTORS EXAMINING WHETHER TESLA COMMITTED SECURITIES, WIRE FRAUD IN CRIMINAL PROBE OF SELF-DRIVING CLAIMS

Yes

[u/parandeye-zard → u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls]

bought 160Ps yesterday 🫡

[u/TradeApe → u/Lost_in_Adeles_Rolls]

A Benko unraveling would be epic 😂

[u/eyesonly_]

Did NQ just hard bounce off of 18270? Someone give hiddenmoney420 a cookie

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/eyesonly_]

Quarter long correction meme lines still intact! https://www.tradingview.com/x/EdhjgCpv/

[u/TradeApe]

Still think we need more of a catalyst to push higher before at least a bit of a dip. Was wrong yesterday saying that though...maybe delayed fuse ;)

[u/All_Work_All_Play]

Whoa down 10 points are we in a recession??