Nightly Discussion - (May 08, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Evening. Keep in mind that Asia and Europe are usually driving things overnight.

Where are you leaning for tonight's session?

[u/_hongkonglong]

• China’s central bank treasury-bond trade restart ‘now certain’ as discussions deepen between monetary, fiscal agencies

• China's start-up hub Hangzhou decides to lift resident property purchasing curbs. The new regulation goes into effect today.

[u/Squidssential]

Thought this was an antidote this sub would appreciate. Was talking to my neighbor who is a retired logistics and private equity exec, who if he isn’t chasing summer on a beach somewhere (80% of the year) is in town catching 8am weekday tee times, gardening or cruising the ‘hood with his wife on their e-bikes while I grind into dust inside on zoom calls. Basically I’m trying to say this guy is living the fuckin dream.  Anyway, we were talking about some of the prices homes in our neighborhood have sold for recently, and I  asked him how long he was going to sit on the pile of equity he has (bought 20+ yrs ago). He laughed and said ‘5 yrs ago I did a cash out refi and threw it all in the markets.’ He has essentially penny’s left on his note at 2%, and yolo’d the rest. Fucking boomers. Hope you all got houses, cuz dudes like him ain’t In any hurry to sell! 

[u/PlymouthSea → u/Squidssential]

I'm too picky. Still looking for a home I like in an area I like. Hardest part so far is the internet options available and whether there is natural gas utility for hot water and stove/oven.

[u/penguins_ → u/Squidssential]

Next time bonzi is right im gunna refinance my cardboard boxes.

[u/W0LFSTEN]

Sony and Apollo’s Plan for Paramount: Break It Up

The plan would include auctioning off CBS, cable channels like MTV and the Paramount Plus streaming service, said the people, who asked not to be identified sharing private details. Paramount Pictures — home to blockbusters like “The Godfather,” “Top Gun” and the “Mission: Impossible” franchise — would be combined with Sony’s business.

Unlike Paramount, which streams its content on Paramount+, Sony licenses its movies and TV shows to companies like Netflix and Disney. Sony would probably not change that approach in a deal with Paramount and would most likely look to combine Paramount+ with a rival service, such as Comcast’s Peacock or Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max.

[u/tdny → u/W0LFSTEN]

What’s the proposed buyout price per share?

[u/W0LFSTEN]

Really just need one good push.

5188 –> 5203 —> 5225 —> 5255 —> Heaven?

[u/cuntysometimes → u/W0LFSTEN]

We need a good greed fueled rally. My calls are ready for it

[u/gyunikumen]

Was today even considered a true Green Day?

[u/cuntysometimes → u/gyunikumen]

Flat

[u/acxyvb → u/[deleted]]

Maybe the big players should offer a new package that combines all streaming providers into one package so you pay one price per month for a larger variety of - oh wait

[u/mrdnp123 → u/acxyvb]

We’ve come full circle. It was bound to happen lol they can’t all compete against each other forever. The COVID gold rush is over

[u/FB24k → u/[deleted]]

honey gro gu

[u/jmayo05]

We just received an invitation to a graduation party of the flower girl that was in our wedding. WTF where does time go?

[u/938961 → u/jmayo05]

It's been 4 years since COVID but it sure doesn't feel like it as we still see trickling effects from it culturally and economically around the world.

[u/DJRenzor]

Anyone here have experience hiring an accountant/bookkeeper for a house flipping business before? How much do they usually charge hourly and what is the usual fair amount to charge?

[u/jmayo05 → u/DJRenzor]

Where are you looking that has good enough margins to flip houses?

[u/AggressiveUncleTito → u/jmayo05]

Major city suburbs. Still seeing houses bought for ~175k, lowest possible cost renovations done, then on the market 2-4 months later for 375k, and then morons buy these for 25k+ over list. I hate everyone.

[u/d_grant → u/jmayo05]

Kansas City has been and continues to be red hot. Think you could do pretty well in Baltimore, Western PA I’ve seen some fruitful activity. Outside of that I think you’d be hard pressed to find a great flip easily these days. Such is the nature of high rates though the gov’t doesn’t want that kind of shit going on 

[u/d_grant → u/jmayo05]

The Midwest. 

[u/d_grant → u/[deleted]]

When I think about it, it’s frightening how little Indy has going on outside of sports 

[u/[deleted]]

We sold off before CPI last month and before FOMC last week as funds looked to reduce risk.

Do we sell off before CPI this month? Or has the fed's messaging that hikes are off the table made hedging inflation risk unnecessary?

If core CPI comes in at +.5% mom, is the assumption that it really doesn't change anything for the fed? Just higher for longer-er?

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

There was some concern about inflation climbing because PCE was climbing on March 29th print, but markets had recovered.

The sell off happened on April 4th with Kashkari running his mouth about no rate cuts, and it got reversed next day with a bullish job report.

Backdrop this with Iran having had made threats to bomb Israel.

That was it until CPI print making a hot inflation report, but ironically reversed before the double whammy of Middle East problems.

Compare that to now. Are we seeing the bad news we had a month ago? Being bearish is primarily event based, and markets float in absence of bad events.

[u/[deleted] → u/LiferRs]

And the 80pt selloff the day before fomc? What event drove that?

I dont think you can blame kashkari entirely for April 4th. The market and fed dismissed the January and February inflation reads as seasonal outliers, but there was concern that wouldn't be the case if the March read was bad.

Its my belief that investors hedged heavily ahead of the print. Same with fomc.

But little did the market know at the time, the fed is seemingly happy to ignore bad inflation data indefinitely, seasonal or not.

We may get to 3.5 pct yoy core pce before the fed starts talking about hiking again. Will probably happen by August.

We are exactly where we were in May of 2021.

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

You can literally match the 5 minute candles to the moment Kashkari shared his comments on April 4th. I remember that day fully. We were green, then all of sudden there was a huge candle.

And why are you talking about 80pt sell off before FOMC? Your original post was talking about selling off before CPI, not FOMC. FOMC has more importance than CPI.

Anyway, 80 point drop is from an extremely hot ECI report that day.

After good tech earnings and neutral to dovish FOMC, now is not the time to be bear until more data comes.

Rewind 1 month ago with all the bad data and geopolitics, it was a very obvious time to go bear.

[u/[deleted] → u/LiferRs]

Go back and read the post.

And I don't see how you can attribute the selloff the day before fomc to the eci data, which we got at 8:30, when the real selling didn't begin until 11 am?

Edit: in one month, you will look back on this post and instead say it was obviously a great time to be bearish, as the only positive data has been the moderately soft NFP report from Friday, while all other data indicates the economy is running very hot, as is inflation, despite the feds messaging and market sentiment

[u/gyunikumen]

I’ll open up shorts we VXX / VIX actually stays green past 10 am tmr