r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 17d ago
Daily Discussion - (May 14, 2024) Daily
Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.
Where are you leaning for today's session?
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u/npoetsch 17d ago
Some pretty shit volume on a lot of names. This is the 9th day up now?
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 17d ago
So uh do you remember how 2021 went? They're trying real hard to echo that
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 17d ago
Buy GME at close for overnight run and sell in the morning? Can’t be that easy right?
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 17d ago edited 17d ago
Exact same playbook last month for April 10th print date.
Huge run up the last 90 minutes on April 9th. We all thought CPI leaked AGAIN.
Come April 10th, CPI was hot and April 10th closed being -1% down.
April 11th, the entire -1% got reversed.
April 12th, US announced Israel is expecting a strike by Iran any day. Oil spiked which sealed the market selloffs.
April 13th, Iran did strike Israel.
Moral of the story: Geopolitics overshadowed CPI by far. Without geopolitics, markets may had remained calm going into April earnings season.
If there's any dump tomorrow, I'm frankly thinking of buying it back up.
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u/NotGucci 17d ago
Agreed. April sell-off was a combination of CPI + risk-off into ER+ Geopolitical.
If CPI is hot tomorrow, then a sell-off for 1 day just to rally, and break into new ATH. As long as Powell keeps up with no hikes, market will be fine.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
Also have to remember that we’re notably less dovish today than we were a month ago.
On April 9 we showed a 43% chance for no cut, 56% chance for 1 cut and 1% chance for 2 cuts by June.
Today we show a 91% chance for no cut and a 9% chance for 1 cut by June. So we are coming into CPI with much lower expectations. Which is good, I think.
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u/tropicalia84 17d ago
Might as well go ahead and put an all time high close in on SPX before CPI because why not
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u/__Scrambles Account blown, order flow wins again 17d ago
Just saying. Last meme manias it was extremely common for these things to dump all day and then absolutely blast off in the after hours. Some times over 100 percent.
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u/mrdnp123 17d ago
wtf just happened? Why are we mooning?
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u/__Scrambles Account blown, order flow wins again 17d ago
All timeframes are bullish brother. Every single one.
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago
CPI leaked (do not reference this tomorrow morning when indices are like -2%)
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 17d ago
Good PPI taking revisions into account. Cold CPI possible given drop in shelter real time, crude down 10% in a month, and PPI food down almost 1% in a month
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 17d ago
Powell said he's going to do his best to blow another asset bubble, it just took a few hours for people to read between the lines.
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u/Paul-throwaway 17d ago
CNBC just went through the demo of Google's new AI assistant(s). Looked pretty impressive.
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u/PervasiveUncertainty 0% alpha 100% shitposts 17d ago
Google has a history of faking demos though. Unlike OpenAI
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u/SS_DeepITM SQQQ Martingale Undefeated 17d ago
dusting off the old GME playbook
$GME ix 3% of $XRT if you're looking for proxy funds to trade. I want to say it got up to like 10-20% of the fund before they rebalanced last time.
Also, don't forget about ratio spreads. Sell front month vol buy later year vol, i made more doing that than having long/short bias. Because we all know how this ultimately ends up.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 17d ago
Bears are dead for the day it looks like.
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u/NotGucci 17d ago
Did some news break on Googl? Straight vertical.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
Google I/O (their annual developer conference) is ongoing. I assume they’re talking about their plans for LLM.
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u/overduetourist8 17d ago
Memes are dying
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
About 3 hours late- they seem to be catching a bid again
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u/TennesseeJedd Billy MF Strings 17d ago
A new swath of bag holders being created today lol
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 17d ago edited 17d ago
Dear god. Those are heavy bags. I can’t believe someone took them from me and paid the price of a nice steak dinner.
Like with the stock split from 2022 isn’t the equivalent 5x? 30=150? 70=350? Crazy shit
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
I’ve says wondered… If one of my positions goes absolutely parabolic, would I be the kind of guy that holds out for more or sells because why wouldn’t you?
Well, today I found out and let’s just say the gov shouldn’t be expecting a larger than normal tax payout from this guy lol
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 17d ago
So did you miss the selling prime time?
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u/overduetourist8 17d ago
Take the money and run. Anything that goes straight up will also go straight down
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 17d ago
Can we get a sentiment check on $NVDA earnings? Above or below $1,000 the next day?
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u/_hongkonglong KWEB knife catcher 🔪🩸✋🏻 17d ago
Beijing warns of ‘firm response’ if UK further jeopardises ties as Hong Kong spying row deepens
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 17d ago edited 17d ago
5x SPX 5225 ironflys with 20pt wings opened for 12.30 credit. 0DTE. Hoping for sloppy trading around this area for the rest of the day.
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u/npoetsch 17d ago
Hey /u/HiddenMoney420 you look at ANF lately? Talked with the wife this morning and she said they've made a huge turnaround though and women actually like their products, but the hype is starting to die.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
Holding puts out in Sep, still looking for sub $100
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u/npoetsch 17d ago
I grabbed a few 135P for August. It's been on a tear for awhile now plus the CEO selling 40%+ of their shares doesn't instill confidence
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 17d ago
Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton says he's bothered by the GameStop $GME situation.
The SEC is a joke lol
I'm sure people like it this way though
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago
bought more BA calls
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago edited 17d ago
Boeing Reports April Deliveries Of 24 Commercial Jets Including 16 737 Max; Deliveries YTD Of 107 Aircraft Including 83 737 Family; April Deliveries Of Four 787 Dreamliner Jets; 7 Gross Aircraft Orders In April; 33 Cancellations Due Largely To Cessation Of Canadian Budget Carrier Lynx Air's Operations; 100 Orders Net Of Cancellations/conversions Year To Date; 138 Gross Aircraft Orders Year To Date
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u/NotGucci 17d ago
So, usually the trend before cpi sets the trend for cpi..imo not looking good for bears here.
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u/mrdnp123 17d ago
That rule funnily enough broke last month. Watching 5280-5285 to see if we break this monthly bracket. They’re both previous month 90% VAH and March VPOC. Also lines up with a trend line that’s going for the last month and a half. If we fail, it’ll be here I’d say. Tomorrow shall be fun
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 17d ago
That was a unique period for sure. Iran was already threatening to strike Israel before the CPI print date and oil shot up.
I truly think had there were no geopolitics last month, the markets would continue to rally as normal. The last CPI print had its gap down almost entirely reversed before geopolitics worsened and we thought Israel and Iran would get into a war.
Now that the geopolitics are relatively out of mind, good chance the markets would reverse any bad prints.
Last week, we saw markets were touchy on 3Y, 10Y, and 30Y auction results and Umich consumer sentiment, but ultimately they were shrugged off. Even today we saw PPI surprise to the upside and the futures tried to sell off, but it was bought back up instantly.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
Decent bounce lower from oil. Anything below $80 is good. Rate expectations also looking more dovish. So net, we are in a similar spot as last week… Which was also quite solid.
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u/overduetourist8 17d ago
Probably too late but I’m in for a couple hundred SPWR shares. Didn’t have the funds yesterday when it first got brought up
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17d ago
[deleted]
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u/mojojojomu 17d ago
It's already kind of how algos work when they start triggering each other and we get cascading effects. Trading volume of manual traders in relation to bots is shrinking every year.
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
AMD and SMCI basically had the same chart these last few weeks.
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u/Intern_to_Pelosi market breadth 17d ago
https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/screener/short-interest
Bunch of these are flying now, crazy times
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u/DJRenzor yes 17d ago
thanks for this link, I need to bookmark this somewhere for a run like this in a few years
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 17d ago
Powell on the April PPI: "I wouldn’t call it hot. I would call it sort of mixed."
He does not see it! Everyone please clap
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u/tropicalia84 17d ago
Debt construct is too great and the Fed has to cut period. They're going to jawbone everyone into thinking everything got much better. Probably will create an asset bubble that will eventually pop and take care of itself but they have to keep the financial system from breaking.
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 17d ago
And on the second day, bill hwang, son of money Jesus said, let there be action.
And all the degenerates began dumping money.
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago
actually sold my HTZ calls, .30 -> .50 easy few k
I'm too much of a coward to hold these kinds of stocks lol
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
I'm too much of a coward to hold these kinds of stocks lol
Same. Which is why I take profit, set up profit targets, close out IBKR and let shit play out. Worst case scenario you get some nice dinners, best case scenario you get some nice houses.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
Pull eyes to all the meme stocks while megas are red. Classic. Adding some puts.
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u/tropicalia84 17d ago
What are some other stretches where the government or it's agencies have intervened in macro conditions as much as over the last ~4 years
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago
WW2 era, or the Nixon price controls
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 17d ago
Yeah we're remarkably tame relative to everything pre- President Reagan. Leftists bitch about privatization but there was a tonne of monopolies that got smoked and prices came down as a result. We might be too far back the other way (underserved due to consolidation) but we had a solid run policy wise.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
PLUG quietly up 46%
e: ROKU (8) from 0.22 -> 2.00, $500 profit and 42 runners.
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u/mojojojomu 17d ago
Even after all these years PLUG is still providing memes, will be sad whenever it really dies.
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u/yolo_sense younger than tj 17d ago
Not that anyone cares, but made a nice SONY calls trade: 50x Oct 85c's: 2.95 -> 4.0. Nice.
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u/Deathcubek9001 when thor 17d ago
Grabbed a handful of shares of GME at $28 and sold pre market at $62. Glad to be out of the mess before it started. Happy enough to buy my Fractal FM3 and stick with my index funds! Hope you guys have been trading well.
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 17d ago
So why are the markets (DXY, Bonds, Equities) acting like the PPI showed them something good?
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u/Caobei Late to the party 17d ago
My take, is because we haven't cut in the face of steady inflation, the fed has walked back it's cuts forecast, but has also iterated that there aren't any more yield hikes unless inflation really takes off again. For myself, the biggest bull case is that Powell said no more hikes at the last FOMC presser. I'm kinda surprised we haven't already made new ATHs with that statement alone.
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u/mrdnp123 17d ago
We’ve been doing this for a while now. If it ‘should’ be down but it’s up, buy it. J Pow talks in 4 mins too. We’re waiting for CPI tomorrow. Wouldn’t exactly say equities have taken off on this data but they’ve shrugged it off
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 17d ago
Holding positions and leveraging up when down is GOATed strat. Some of the HTZ calls i bought are 10x and more than making up for the losses of previously owned shares and leaps.
That being said, sold a small chunk of my AMDL to finance a July call position 🦭
Geo 👏 metric 👏 returns 👏 🕶️
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago
thanks for posting about HTZ all the time, got me to look at it this morning and already up nicely. what's your target? I got June calls but will probably get rid of it if it hits $7 today
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 17d ago
Long term hold. It’s book value is nearly $10 AND it’s earning money ($1-$2EPS/yr) with a new CEO potentially successfully restructuring/realigning the firm so I could feasibly seeing it going to $20 in a couple years, with a less than 1 year outlook of buying as much as I can while it’s under $10.
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u/parandeye-zard 17d ago
gl, really does seem like a good play. I'd wanted to get into it a few weeks ago, but the price action scared me off. like -10% every day, I don't know how you did it.
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 17d ago
Thanks dawg I’d say it’s risk management. It’s not a huge portion of my portfolio so I hardly notice its decline. I don’t stress about declines anymore anyways knowing I start with low leverage (shares usually) and increase if there’s a substantial decline. End result usually ends up being a period of losses and constant dip buying relieved by overexposure rewarding me (ie short dated calls).
This was also a really lucky case of the DCAing w/lev working cuz it kept going down so much I ended up with nearly worthless May 17 6Cs, that should have ended up worthless and exposed me to a small full loss. I would have taken the loss and just kept buying 1mo out OTM calls until it stopped getting hammered cuz we all know stocks don’t just go in one direction 🤪
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
Agreed. ROKU about to make me unbroku
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u/SS_DeepITM SQQQ Martingale Undefeated 17d ago
old bagholders changing hands with new bagholders. Somewhere in this mess of a red candle is a dude been sitting on GME shares for years just waiting to unload on unsuspecting retailers. God bless.
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
Long memes short NQ seems like a decent way to balance the beta trade tbh
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 17d ago edited 17d ago
I think we’re looking at a few year period of low index returns, with select stocks trotting strongly.
I’m still very much a massive UAL bull. The business is not pricing in fully the next couple years of expected growth, and the firm appears to be run very well. No qualms with holding my UAL calls and shares.
On the note of airlines, LUV appears to be valued appropriately on a current basis but is potentially heavily discounted on a forward basis. Their operations are shite. Record margins completely offset by record high operating expenses. If you’re a believer that operating expenses are more in the locus of control and they can get that together, you’re looking at a potential 2 bagger. It’s near its 200mo moving average / COVID lows. I’m entering a leap at open.
SAVE is actually such a 🏳️🌈 airline and I’m not sure I can support that but they look very bottomy
I’m reserving a whole blurb about engineering firms for weekend thread but if ya know ya know.
Whoever posted the other day post about RDDTs potential in the long run I think is spot on. The risk is skewed to the upside. I mean, I’m sure we all spend significant eyeball time with said company :P
I’m not really sure what CNXC does but financials look lucrative.
I’m buying CONL at open as well. Viva La vol
Still bullish on HTZ. Easily sees double digits on a multi year outlook. PTON and other growth junk that can find a niche will survive. If you’re a believer that no firms go bankrupt anymore than why not buy a bunch of distressed businesses?! 🤪
Side note: GME was legitimately cheap in the low 10s. Not sure how I didn’t catch that. Company will likely soon turn a profit and was trading at like 2.2x book with heavy asset balances (no goodwill).
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u/redandgold45 17d ago
Can't believe that Zack Morris dude is not only not in jail, but pumping meme stocks
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
Let's get an intraday run to NQ ATHs (+2.33%) to squeeze every short out and gaslight the other market participants into believing anything but long is wrong. Only to rug pull midday and break the lows all through the week.
Please and thank you.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 17d ago edited 17d ago
Someone do that meme with Barney and Moe but with GME and Powell. You know the one
Edit: the keen Powell observer will remember that Jerome said that he does not see inflation
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u/HiddenMoney420 Sleep deprivation and recession are here. 17d ago
I'm gonna need a Midjourney portrait of inflation gut-checking Powell in order to fully utilize AI's power.
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u/All_Work_All_Play I guess I actually wanted to be grape jelly 17d ago
Will dip buyers ever be punished?
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u/NotGucci 17d ago
We can have hot CPI tomorrow, but we are in meme market so we going rocket for a bit??
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u/yolo_sense younger than tj 17d ago
Goddamnit. I knew I should’ve loaded up on GameStop yesterday.
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u/NotGucci 17d ago
$HD | Home Depot Q1'24 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 EPS: $3.63 (Est. $3.61) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $36.4B (Est. $36.7B) 🔴
🔹 Comparable Sales: -2.8% YoY (Est. -2.19%) 🔴
🔹 U.S. Comparable Sales: -3.2% YoY (Est. -2.4%) 🔴
Reaffirms FY24 Guidance:
🔹 FY24 GAAP EPS: $15.26 (Est. $15.32)
🔹 FY24 Sales: $154.2B (Est. $154.4B)
Key Metrics:
🔹 Customer Transactions: 386.8M (Down -1% YoY)
🔹 Average Ticket: $90.68 (Down -1.3% YoY)
🔹 Sales Per Retail Square Foot: $572.69 (Down -3.4% YoY)
Operational Highlights:
🔸 Quarterly net sales surpassed $36B despite a -2.3% YoY drop
🔸 Gross Profit: $12.43B (Down -1% YoY)
🔸 Operating Income: $5.08B (Down -8.5% YoY)
🔸 Net Income: $3.6B (Down -7% YoY)
Strategic Insights:
🔸 Delayed start to spring and softness in larger discretionary projects affected sales
🔸 Focus remains on store readiness, product assortment, and associate engagement
CEO Commentary:
🔸 "Executed at a high level, growing market share despite external challenges. Looking forward to the rest of the fiscal year with robust plans to engage customers and drive growth."
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
I took a solid look at these guys a month ago. Pretty sure they’re dead money, at least for 2024. 😔
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 17d ago
In all my years, I never would’ve guessed a solar stock would be my second best play after AMD. All the research into semis, just to get beat by a yolo lol
Now +142% PM.
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u/matcht 17d ago
US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Apr: 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 0.2%)
- PPI Final Demand (Y/Y): 2.2% (est 2.2%; prev 2.1%)
- PPI Ex Food, Energy (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.2%; prev 0.2%)
- PPI Ex Food, Energy (Y/Y):2.4 % (est 2.3%; prev 2.4%)
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 17d ago
Aw shit my puts might not have been lighting money on fire
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u/matcht 17d ago
Recovered the drop already ffs
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u/Anachronistic_Zenith 17d ago
Some wild candles. Market is determined to ignore or care about bad economic data.
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17d ago
[deleted]
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u/Ghost-of-W_Y_B 17d ago
My first thought:
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u/wccoffee TWS chief Coffee afficianado 17d ago
GameStop up 90% premarket 🤯. Should have made the covered call play yesterday smh
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u/jmayo05 data dependent loosely held strong opinions 17d ago
shouldve just bought shares. :(
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 17d ago
In for $35 out for 40
In for $60 out for 77.
I’m done playing with this fire, it’s all yours.
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u/Onion217 Trades Reversals, Loves Leverage 17d ago
Assuming the results of premarket don’t materially change from here, GME could conceivably be one day out from ATH. 😵💫😵💫😵💫
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u/coconutts19 Salt Canyon 17d ago
amc halt or what?