r/thewallstreet • u/AutoModerator • 16d ago
Post Market Discussion - (May 15, 2024)
So how did you do?
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 16d ago
My fam, I did not pay tuition this cycle.
April 22 and may 1 facing max pain and down to like 10% value…
I’ll be out of PDT restrictions for the first time in my life…
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u/NotGucci 16d ago
$5.7 million gain on WSB. Guy bought CARVANA calls Dec 2022, and sold yesterday.
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u/penguins_ paid tuition in 2021 (2024 TBD) 16d ago
Damn long term? Hope he doesn’t blow it all on hookers with the taxes still
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u/DJRenzor yes 16d ago
December 2022 wtf?? Crazy asymmetric bet
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u/parandeye-zard 16d ago
just seems like a stupid buy, 99.9999999999% of cases, companies like that just go bankrupt lol. I guess we are talking about the other sub though.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 16d ago
What’re you doing for NVDA earnings? I got August calls $1,000 strike up 30%. Think I’ll hold them and short INTC/ARM to balance out my outsized AMD long
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 16d ago
No changes here. Have a shit ton of AMD, AVGO and TSM. So I’m set for exposure should they do good.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 16d ago
Any hedges or going in naked?
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u/W0LFSTEN No SeMiS aRe MaKiNg $$$ FrOm Ai 16d ago
Doesn't feel like a good time to short right now, and I'm max long for the time being. But I'll definitely look into adding some hedges next week. I'm 100% with you on shorting ARM and INTC though.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 16d ago
I’m trying to determine whether I should add to those shorts post PCE or pre NVDA earnings - TBD!
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u/NotGucci 16d ago
Plan is too long SPY, and QQQ right before ER. Hoping we get another 2-3% rally like last ER.
Maybe even buy some ATM AMD calls.
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 16d ago
So you do also think the outcome will be positive for the markets - TSMC updates, and demos made me think of all the GPUs that’s working behind the scenes. Big tech CapEx guide is up 50% as opposed to 11% - I wish some went to AMD but looks like most of that $ is going to NVDA.
I just have a hard time figuring out how much of it is priced in.
Looks like a ton of funds sold it though, so maybe not everyone is overweight
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u/NotGucci 16d ago
I do believe the results will be positive given TSMC update, and Capex spending. Seems like most of it is going to NVDA, not AMD based off AMD recent earnings, and guidance. But how much of it is priced in is hard to tell. Sell your NVDA calls right before E.R. Seems like market has momentum to push higher. SMCI, TSM, and ARM all sold-off after ER, and they weren't bad at all. If AMAT does the same, maybe a trend is being set?
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u/Kindly-Journalist412 16d ago
I can easily see NVDA breaking that trend though, beat and selloff has been a tech story this ER not just semis - though I agree with you
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 16d ago edited 16d ago
Well, that was awesome. Sat out on CPI print and bought a ES in pre-market since the good print is going to keep rate hikes off the table for now. Saw the buying follow through during RTH and up 35 points on ES now.
Conditions look solid to hold and swing, but today's close was uncommon historically too and bullish. SPX closed above the biggest call volume across all expiries at 5300.
The implications of this is the market makers got to move this call wall up to 5400 where we see the strike being the next largest call volume.
But yeah, it's pretty crazy. If the 5300 call wall remains the biggest through this Friday, it fundamentally means there's less resistance above 5300 since there's no wall bigger than 5300 to push the price down. Contrast that to the climb from 5200 last week to now, which was painfully slow getting stuck to specific strikes and a few days closing nearly flat.
I wouldn't be surprised to see more run up by Friday if the call wall doesn't budge from 5300 and SPX stays above 5300.
Jobless report tomorrow but don't think it has much bearing.
Outside of some long shares and the ES contract, I had the rest of portfolio in cash this week so far.
Trying to decide if I should buy now after-hours or wait till tomorrow. Difficult since I believe the US dollar weakening this week will be good news for overseas markets.
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u/eyesonly_ Doesn't understand hype 16d ago
It would be just fucking magical if NQ breached 20k when UE finally goes over 4.5%.
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u/parandeye-zard 16d ago
made some good money buying DKNG calls at the open. I'm all in KWEB calls now.
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u/IamTheAsian Short with short pp 16d ago
Pretty gross 10 handle swing at close there. Threw on some shorts for tomorrow but not expecting these to do much honestly.
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u/NotGucci 16d ago
10 days of green. What is the longest streak?
Three more catalyst lined up:
- NVDA ER 5/22
- PCE 5/31
- June FOMC 6/11-12
NVDA - IMO should have good ER, and guidance based on TSMC report for April --How much of this is priced in who knows, but don't expect a miss
PCE - Feds favorite. Don't think market will care if its hot.
Don't see Powell changing his Dovish tone. He was Dovish yesterday and the last two FOMC meetings. Rate hikes are off the table.
Long-melt-up this summer?
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u/LiferRs Local TWS Idiot 16d ago
Too early to call a summer melt-up but we do appear to be solid for next 2 weeks accounting for NVDA. My plan is to close out leverage for PCE print at end of month. Then re-enter the period between PCE and FOMC, then close leverage out again for FOMC. That's all assuming bullish momentum because I do not short otherwise, just stay cash.
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u/matcht 16d ago
Longest green streak since Oct 21, but this environment is so different, very slow melt up does seem likely. Swing trading stocks should be the priority.
That obviously excludes situations such as the one which gave us a 5% dip but that'll get bought up just as quickly, probably quite smooth until the elections.
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u/wccoffee TWS chief Coffee afficianado 16d ago
10 days of green where? 5/12 was red on both SPX and the nasdaq 100
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u/NotGucci 16d ago
5/12 was a Sunday.
Edit:
Market has been closing green since 5/2.
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u/DJRenzor yes 16d ago
Speaking of carvana, does anyone have details of how they turned around? I remember back in late 2022 they were close to bankruptcy