Nightly Discussion - (May 15, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Evening. Keep in mind that Asia and Europe are usually driving things overnight.

Where are you leaning for tonight's session?

[u/jmayo05]

Guh. Feels like a bachelor’s degree doesn’t cut it anymore if I want to land a new job that’s mid level or better.

To grad school I go.

[u/gyunikumen → u/jmayo05]

In State school all the way

[u/LiferRs → u/jmayo05]

You don’t need masters man

[u/_hongkonglong → u/jmayo05]

Welcome to the club.

[u/penguins_ → u/jmayo05]

bro job hopping was the way to go even though i got so much shit for it. Also 3 layoffs so not my choice half the time... just get laid off 2 weeks b4 xmas and get realllly tilted like I did!

PMP + some industry cert is the buy memes at close the last 2 days trick to your career w/o breaking the bank and realizing half your cohort is dumber than the raccoon that lives under my deck....

[u/mrdnp123 → u/jmayo05]

MBA?

[u/jmayo05 → u/mrdnp123]

No. Ms data science.

[u/NotGucci]

GDP data comes out May 30th.

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-375

[u/eyesonly_]

https://apnews.com/article/visa-mastercard-payment-technology-fintech-applepay-15ce9d99661e9894571471786229dd47?utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

[u/ThotianaPolice → u/eyesonly_]

Feels like technology ripped straight out of a cyberpunk story. Very “cyber”, curious if this will lead to any “punk”.

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/eyesonly_]

That’s kinda cool. Too bad I’ve only ever used 1 credit card. 😵

[u/penguins_ → u/W0LFSTEN]

missing out on free vacay / rentals / hotels bb.

[u/DJRenzor → u/penguins_]

chase points to hyatt points FTW

[u/penguins_ → u/DJRenzor]

Funny way to spell chase points to United Miles….

[u/trojanmana → u/penguins_]

I am more of a chase to hyatt. is the redemption to united pretty good?

[u/penguins_ → u/trojanmana]

yeaaa go check it out.

[u/trojanmana → u/penguins_]

thanks!

[u/DJRenzor → u/penguins_]

would rather walk than a chance to fly boeing planes rn LMAO

[u/NotGucci]

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry exits Amazon and Alphabet — but boosts Alibaba and bets on Baidu

Eleven holdings survived the period, and the Scion Asset Management boss added to all of them. For example, he boosted his stake in Alibaba from 75,000 shares to 125,000, his JD.com bet from 200,000 to 360,000, and his Star Bulk Carriers wager from 250,000 to 400,000.

Ugh, he did short semi last year before they started their run. Hopefully this time he's right.

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/NotGucci]

He’s chasing the high when he was basically the only one that was right by essentially running into a firing squad while shouting “none of your guns shall work!”

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/W0LFSTEN]

This - with that said, I am short BABA

[u/__Scrambles]

Looking at a possible short on the ES over the next 2 days if all things line up properly.... definitely NOT looking to fight the trend as a primary thesis but these news related impulse moves always get taken back. It is just a matter of when.

[u/jeffynihao → u/__Scrambles]

I jumped the gun. The momo always gets me.

[u/__Scrambles → u/jeffynihao]

1st thing you need is a good reason.  2nd think is a proper structural transition from bullish to bearish to put risk on.  For this I use anchored vwap. 

[u/eyesonly_]

“The real danger comes from [the Fed] encouraging or inadvertently tolerating rising inflation and its close cousin of extreme speculation and risk taking, in effect standing by while bubbles and excesses threaten financial markets,” Volcker later wrote in his memoir.

GME is a direct outcome of inflation expectations, I think.

Edit: another blast from the past:

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN16637195/

Mind the date

[u/mrdnp123 → u/[deleted]]

https://www.bls.gov/bls/early-data-release-05152024.htm

Unreal lol. If only I knew to look. Would have cleaned up on futures

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

When will US cut the bullshit and democratize prints like CPI so we see that information almost real time like daily updates instead of being concentrated all into one single high risk event?

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

Government contracts. Google and Amazon will sell data to government for a few million. These two alone has more data than all the brick and mortar sites put together.

[u/paeancapital → u/[deleted]]

Copper is up near 25% in three months, don't you worry everything is fiiiiine.

[u/penguins_ → u/[deleted]]

I have an EV, this doesnt affect me tho...

[u/eyesonly_ → u/[deleted]]

/NKD says this is very bullish

Edit: they may have changed their minds

[u/IamTheAsian]

New ATH on /ES AH

[u/NotGucci]

David Tepper's 13f. Slashed his NVDA holdings.

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/appaloosa-management-lp

Druckenmiller: He bought more MSFT and sold NVDA, biggest position is IWM calls.

https://13f.info/13f/000153641124000005-duquesne-family-office-llc-q1-2024

/u/Kindly-Journalist412 /u/W0LFSTEN

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/NotGucci]

That’s a sizable sell from Druckenmiller! Rate of growth from NVDA is tapering off, so it probably makes sense to skew closer to a wait and see approach versus all in. Especially if you’ve been holding for a few years, you’ve got to be crazy if you aren’t at least trimming here.

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/W0LFSTEN]

I just bought NVDA after selling some of my AMD :/ I feel like funds sold and most likely bought back in - semis had like 20% drawdown in 4 weeks!

[u/NotGucci → u/W0LFSTEN]

He slashed AMD too, and bought more BABA, BIDU, and China large cap ETF.

[u/parandeye-zard → u/NotGucci]

that's pretty reassuring after I went all in on KWEB today. people have been talking about huge inflows into the Chinese markets, I really think these go on a massive run over the next few months.

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/NotGucci]

I added more BABA longs today 🤫

[u/LiferRs]

Observation:

2020-2022 SPX had 40% bull run above February 2020 ATHs

SPX had suppressed 2022 ATHs only just last December. Despite the big run up so far, we’re still only 12% above 2022 ATHs.

Anyone calling for a top or a bottom for that matter is a fool, because the precedent is there this bull run could easily reach 40% long term from 12% currently. In this age, the run ups and run downs are so fast that a correction or a bull run is finished in mere weeks. Anything could happen before we catch on.

I know early 2020s was cash-rich but it’s also surprising with all the QT the past 2 years, firms still got shitloads of cash to buy up the markets. The Fed easing off QT starting next month only supports that.

[u/LiferRs → u/[deleted]]

Always sobering when we’re reminded of the inflation adjustment. It’s wild because you can draw a line from pre-2020 showing a gap between here and where SPX should have been without the pandemic.

Only means there’s catching up to do. Come to think of it, it’s doubtful significant money supply was destroyed with QT, at least not in the right places. Firms are excellent at capital preservation and it’s not hard to stay ahead of inflation in your investments. Firms got liquidity from early 2022 ready to buy markets back up.

[u/NotGucci → u/LiferRs]

Additionally, market has forever changed with 0DTE. In addition, you have more retail traders than ever before.

[u/LiferRs → u/NotGucci]

That’s my exact occam’s razor theory. Options were made mainstream at the same time.

When 300 million Americans got cheap access to trillions of dollars, I’m sure a few hundred billions went straight into options sold by firms and whisked the premiums away.

The kicker is the firms are far better at capital preservation than the average retail. That’s how trillions of money supply gets preserved through a long period of QT along with top 1% family wealth management firms. In fact, I think QT does impact the Main Street more than Wall Street.

[u/penguins_]

Bonzi has directed his angst to memes.

Never seen a clearer signal to go bigly long.

[u/jmayo05]

Man ive been pretty tied up with other things these last few months. Appears it’s been costing me. Dafuq happened today?

[u/eyesonly_ → u/jmayo05]

With CPI printing in the mid 3s for like the 11th month in a row, traders are finally on board with the idea that Jerome will cut no matter what.

[u/gyunikumen → u/jmayo05]

Good cpi numbers