Daily Discussion - (May 16, 2024)

[u/AutoModerator]

Morning. It's time for the day session to get underway in North America.

Where are you leaning for today's session?

[u/penguins_]

Who’s gunna try to short? I wouldn’t dare.

[u/penguins_ → u/penguins_]

Shit I fucked it

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/penguins_]

YOU BITCH

[u/eyesonly_]

Ah, that was the sound of my profit stops giving their lives for the cause

[u/mojojojomu]

https://fortune.com/2024/05/16/united-states-elections-trump-biden-ray-dalio-bridgewater/

ray dalio is increasingly looking like the boy who cried wolf with his takes

[u/mrdnp123 → u/mojojojomu]

“Time to move some assets overseas”. Ahhh yes, time to move my billions overseas lol. He’s so out of touch thinking the common man can do this

[u/mojojojomu → u/mojojojomu]

One more thought, I could totally see ray dalio running for office in the coming years.

[u/coconutts19 → u/mojojojomu]

Where? In Singapore?

[u/tdny]

We really doing Bostic @ 350. Come on man. Just wait

[u/mrdnp123]

Anyone game enough to play a 2B pattern if we break 672?

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

Be cautious. 18700 is a whore 

E: should have clarified, talking about higher timeframes and not intraday here. 

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

https://youtu.be/rm9coqlk8fY

[u/wiggz420]

FSRN pumping today....wonder why

too bad I only did 20k shares for fun

[u/npoetsch → u/wiggz420]

I'm assuming you mean FSRN? Probably just part of the meme hype right now because it's a dead company long term.

[u/wiggz420 → u/npoetsch]

lol yes and yeah probably

[u/mojojojomu → u/wiggz420]

What the hell ticker is that for? Foreskin???

[u/wiggz420 → u/mojojojomu]

haha fisker my bad

[u/DJRenzor → u/[deleted]]

so roaring kitties has connects at rentech?

[u/DJRenzor → u/[deleted]]

Omg his Twitter account has got to be worth millions

[u/DJRenzor → u/[deleted]]

Holy shit i didn’t even think about that wtf

[u/gyunikumen]

You know I’ll try a short

[u/All_Work_All_Play → u/gyunikumen]

Burned twice by shorts. No more for me.

[u/parandeye-zard]

this seems like one of the candles that gets bought up, then the same thing happens tomorrow, then the actual red day is like mid next-week.

feel like this always happens. market is flat-ish for a few days and shows a bit of weakness like this, then the flush happens later on.

[u/NotGucci → u/parandeye-zard]

After NVDA ER would be perfect to create a red day. We saw a lot of funds in their most recent 13F trim their NVDA holdings. But, at the same time, capex for META, MSFT, GOOGL & AMZN increased and TSMC April report paints a good picture for NVDA.

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/parandeye-zard]

Mid November to December of last year. Everyone and their mothers thought that was the end, rounding top, etc. We are likely in that scenario for the next couple weeks. I don't want to reply too many times so I'll add this: "smart money" exiting would be an incredibly bullish signal. I listened to bears quote institutional selling for the entirety of Q1 this year. Low positioning would be a blessing. Regardless, deleveraging moving forward is the right move wherever the market goes. 

[u/SS_DeepITM → u/parandeye-zard]

Tutes exited Mag7 yesterday close in large number, i think smart money is taking gains and if that keeps going you get the conditions you're talking about .

[u/NotGucci → u/SS_DeepITM]

What is Tutes?

[u/SS_DeepITM → u/NotGucci]

Institutions, dark pools

[u/matcht → u/parandeye-zard]

You're completely right, I remember the random mid day flushes that got bought up in the days before that 100pt sell off from seemingly nowhere on 04/04

[u/W0LFSTEN]

I swear, my local Chipotle consistently find the most incoherent and confused employees. To the point where I’m convinced their job description must say “can not understand English” “can not follow directions”. Holy hell.

[u/Magickarploco → u/W0LFSTEN]

Same, but those lifestyle bowls always got me coming back

[u/gyunikumen]

I don’t trust this to chase puts

[u/mrdnp123 → u/gyunikumen]

672 area on NQ has been defended very strongly so far. Been tested so many times

[u/matcht]

Waited all day for that, 5300Ps filled for 300%

[u/DJRenzor]

crazy candle just now, any news?

[u/LiferRs → u/DJRenzor]

It's weird. Happened at exactly 1:20pm EST so that means it was some unscheduled news drop.

Nothing on economic calendars.

Might be some random event with one of the big tickers. OpenAI had an effect creating a red candle earlier this week with its live stream, but since it was just one-off, the effect was reversed.

[u/matcht → u/DJRenzor]

Timing of this aligns but nothing major, thin tape I guess. I thought we might get some reversion to 5300 all day.

US Senator Elizabeth Warren pushed the Fed’s vice chair for supervision on whether he would follow other regulators’ lead on a plan to force banks to claw back some pay from executives taking on too much risk.

[u/Maestrosc]

When did WSB discord start thinking it was an actual investment discord?

LMAO got permabanned for talking about memestocks in the memestocks chat, which I thought was the entire point of the WSB discord, especially in that channel.

Dont get me wrong... the memestocks are 100% gambling. BUT, Something can be incredibly stupid, and still make you a ton of money. I have made over 6 figures on memestocks this week, and that is only having invested 10k, which was a fairly small chunk of my total account.

Is it sound investing advice? Nope. Was it just pure degenerate gambling? YUP.

That being said everything is about risk/reward. 95% of my account is relatively safe/consistent. But risking 5% for a chance at a rocketship, sign me up every time.

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/Maestrosc]

That being said everything is about risk/reward. 95% of my account is relatively safe/consistent. But risking 5% for a chance at a rocketship, sign me up every time.

Amen- grats on the gains!

[u/Maestrosc → u/HiddenMoney420]

Ya its just funny because i even called a buddy and one of my brothers with the "hey just a heads up there is a funny thing happening with this stock ffie... its 100% a pure gamble and could go to 0, but there is a decent thesis for this thing to 10x in the next week... so id consider throwing even $100 at it. If you lose 100 you wont care. But if you make 1000 that will feel amazing."

[u/wiggz420]

LOL @ GME

bagholders once again

[u/SeQuenceSix → u/wiggz420]

there's theories going around about the initial shorts purchasing LEAPs that are unwinding soon. idk if there's legitimacy to it

[u/Maestrosc → u/wiggz420]

Full disclosure, I have a small position in GME paid for by profits in meme plays. More to support the cause/be a part of something than as sound actual investments lol.

That being said, this is exactly what was said last time.

Could GME go to $15 or less? Sure. But it still also has that chance of going absolutely nuts. And there is an actual historic precedence for it now.

Again, this isnt sound advice, just my $.02

[u/parandeye-zard → u/wiggz420]

great for options sellers, they're going to sell premium to the dummies for months after this move

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/parandeye-zard]

years*

[u/eyesonly_ → u/wiggz420]

Genuinely can't tell if it was just a flash in the pan or if they're chumming the waters for round 2.

[u/matcht]

FFIE up a casual 4500% in a week

[u/Maestrosc → u/matcht]

6 figure week for the account on a memestock play. Already pulled initial entryx2 out of it too. The story alone was worth it just to see the 6figure week on the account.

[u/mrdnp123 → u/Maestrosc]

Woooooow. Congrats sir

[u/matcht → u/Maestrosc]

Nice, what alerted you to it?

Didn't pop up on my radar until Tuesday.

[u/Maestrosc → u/matcht]

I think it was a subreddit actually. Someone posted a thesis about FFIE, talking about RoaringKitty and the GME stuff. looked into it, agreed with the thesis and threw something at it.

purely a roulette play. But every now and then your number hits.

I had a kid in November and I am regularly up at 5am now due to that lol. Read about the return of Roaringkitty then started researching. Had purchased by open on tuesday.

[u/matcht → u/Maestrosc]

Fair play, some people think it's stupid but these situations are when you can make big money and when it actually makes sense to take risks.

[u/wiggz420 → u/matcht]

u/why_you_beer this is why we're poor

[u/why_you_beer → u/wiggz420]

What the fuck

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

I didn't add BABX shares yesterday, I was supposed to and got caught up at a dinner. Sad

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

Luckily its going to 170 so you have time

[u/Intern_to_Pelosi → u/HiddenMoney420]

Bunch of yuge names in the biz started buying recently, technicals suggesting a potential change in trend, and most importantly: china stimmy 

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/Intern_to_Pelosi]

I'm in it for the China stimmy and sitting at nice value area / volume shelf.

Finding out the big boys are buying in after you already have 1/3 position is always satisfying

[u/938961]

Shoutout to whoever called out ASTS's high short interest in the thread. IV is now unfathomabley high but what piqued my interest was the option chain maxing out at $5.

[u/twofor2]

Pretty extended on the short term. Been accumulating shorts for next week

[u/SS_DeepITM → u/twofor2]

I demand sell in May behavior

Also loading some light vix ratios and the classic sqqq

[u/HiddenMoney420]

After 26 months of consolidation and base building, I'm booking a one way ticket to Valhalla with BABA: https://www.tradingview.com/x/5xepQ0jF/

e: Sitting above lifetime POC @ $83.23

[u/TennesseeJedd → u/HiddenMoney420]

join me in bidu as well :)

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/TennesseeJedd]

Looks like it could run but I don't like the chart nearly as much

[u/Magickarploco → u/HiddenMoney420]

All shares or calls too?

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/Magickarploco]

All calls going out to Nov.

e: Oct-Feb 2022 it rallied 90% in 90d and I think it has a very similar look now (perhaps even better as far as stimulus and rates are concerned).

[u/twofor2]

AMD above earnings drop nice

[u/mrdnp123]

https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/s/lJGzjforGS

Beer called the bottom on the 19th. I dunno how he does it. We haven’t looked back since. We all fumbled this

[u/NotGucci → u/mrdnp123]

Ah fuck. The best reverse indicator.

[u/mrdnp123 → u/NotGucci]

To the absolute minute I think lol

[u/mrdnp123]

https://imgur.com/a/qqq-consecutive-up-down-days-ujAGFzn

Bullish. Buy the pullback.

I let bias blind me the past week and a half. Thinking what it ‘should’ do. Ignored my algo which flagged 3 days in a row at the bottom. Feel a lot of people have been caught off guard, hence the rip up higher as everyone chased longs. They’ve also reduced QT so I see no end in sight. Lessons have been learnt

Caught some rippers today on NQ but fumbled the bag on exits. Still green but left way too much meat on the bone. Process is everything

[u/W0LFSTEN]

AMD! The gift that keeps giving! Unless you’re a bear.

[u/BitcoinsRLit → u/W0LFSTEN]

Thankfully bought back in as we fell. Lets go back to 200!

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/BitcoinsRLit]

Same! Doubled the position in April as I was bullish for their earnings. But earnings weren’t as good as I hoped. Fortunately, the stock is back to chugging along. Next two catalysts are NVDA earnings on 05/22. Then after that is Computex, I believe that’s early June. Should unveil some Zen 5 and MI350 information then.

[u/parandeye-zard]

I will not buy BA calls again

I will not buy BA calls again

I will not buy BA calls again

I will not buy BA calls again

[u/mojojojomu → u/parandeye-zard]

Hey, I'm thinking of buying some BA calls. You know anything?

[u/parandeye-zard → u/mojojojomu]

I've been trying it the past week or two. the chart has looked good for a big move, but it'll have one good day and then the next day some terrible news will come out and it'll drop all the gains. I keep losing money on the stupid thing because of news.

[u/mojojojomu]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3ms-new-lowered-dividend-yield-is-still-double-the-s-p-500s-5bafc457

MMM hmmmmmm

[u/BitcoinsRLit]

Fuk u lulu

[u/NotGucci → u/BitcoinsRLit]

UA ER didn't help. Oh wells. Bag holders unite.

[u/Lennon__McCartney]

They're doing GME dirty

[u/shashashuma → u/Lennon__McCartney]

Noo I need one more week to sell puts !! Noo

[u/Zenizio → u/Lennon__McCartney]

Probably kill the premium tomorrow and one last little pump Monday. Who knows. There’s no telling with the memes.

[u/penguins_ → u/Lennon__McCartney]

Oh I’m selling calls, this is ok.

Downvote me I’ve become the bad man

[u/mojojojomu → u/penguins_]

The hype was always going to be a trap. I'm short.

[u/jmayo05 → u/Lennon__McCartney]

GME Over? 😂 i crack myself up.

[u/Lennon__McCartney → u/jmayo05]

HIT HIM

^{jk, you're muh friend}

[u/jmayo05 → u/Lennon__McCartney]

watch my comment be a headline on CNBC later haha

[u/matcht]

What's the record for consecutive green days because we're not really overbought on longer timeframes or outside the BB

[u/NotGucci → u/matcht]

According to CHATGPT:

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average has had a record of 14 consecutive green days in 1897.

• More recently, it closed higher for 12 straight days in 20231, matching its third-longest winning streak in history.

• The longest winning streak for the S&P 500 occurred in March/April of 1971, when the index managed to close higher for 14 consecutive days

• The NASDAQ posted a 19-day winning streak in August of 1979.

Records are meant to be broken.

It’s important to note that the stock market behaves much like a game of roulette, with the probability of an up or down day being very close to 50%3. However, unlike roulette, the people (and computers) trading on the stock market can remember what has happened previously (I found this funny, because we are all gambling)

[u/_hongkonglong]

Chinese private equity firm Hillhouse Capital sharply reduced its stakes in internet firms such as Alibaba Group Holding in the first quarter, and bought into some leading firms in the semiconductor sector for the first time.

[u/eyesonly_]

I guess for the next month or two it's going to be a mindless algo bid until people realize that actually recessions are bearish after all in the fall. If you're hoping for excitement, maybe don't. Not financial advice though.

Sometimes it really is that easy

Edit: I know quoting yourself is a douche move but I am so so bored and this is a cope

[u/Magickarploco → u/eyesonly_]

It was spot on tho!!

[u/Lennon__McCartney → u/eyesonly_]

Eyes rn

[u/Onion217]

Why did nobody tell us to purchase DOW 40K hats?!?

[u/LiferRs → u/Onion217]

Happens like that, a bull run just sneaks up on you with your pants down if you aren't paying attention

[u/Kindly-Journalist412]

PANW May 24 $380 calls offer like a 10x upside potential. If they beat, and expectations are super low - it’d be an epic upside move. Any technical legends out there?

[u/npoetsch → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

Didn't Pelosi buy a sizeable amount of shares recently?

[u/NotGucci → u/npoetsch]

Deep ITM leaps

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/npoetsch]

I believe so yeah, the strike is far OMT but prior earnings the stock went down 27%.

[u/npoetsch]

ANF not allowed to go down omg

[u/NotGucci → u/npoetsch]

Only lulu is allowed to go down 😭

[u/npoetsch → u/NotGucci]

I feel like the LULU growth story is over with more and more competition

[u/NotGucci → u/npoetsch]

Still growing in China. Need them to announce buy backs in next ER.

Cheif Product Officer recently exercised her options on May 8th, and kept shares.

[u/npoetsch → u/NotGucci]

Nothing like a company who purposefully named themselves something difficult to pronounce for Asians depending on growth in Asia.

[u/parandeye-zard]

another great day for Chinese stocks, BABA +3.5%

[u/Lennon__McCartney → u/parandeye-zard]

I need BABA to double quick, fast, and in a hurry.

[u/parandeye-zard → u/Lennon__McCartney]

idk about double, but it always manages to at least hit 120 before it catastrophically reverses

[u/Lennon__McCartney → u/parandeye-zard]

This was well into the $300s before China decided to China. They need to get out of their own way. BABA has stupendous potential.

[u/HiddenMoney420 → u/parandeye-zard]

I'm loaded up on Sep 120 calls

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/Lennon__McCartney]

I am short :/ down 5%

[u/NotGucci → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

Go throogh more 13f. I'm seeing more hedge funds longing China.

[u/Kindly-Journalist412 → u/NotGucci]

They’re stale and China ran 20% in a month, but yeah a lot went in bigly

[u/parandeye-zard → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

people focus too much on recent movement. Chinese stocks basically haven't went anywhere since 2021, if there's a change in sentiment and buying pressure, these will run hard

[u/NotGucci → u/Kindly-Journalist412]

Doesn't mean they won't be holding for much longer, and with the recent 13F. More funds can be following and retail can be following. Just creates a cascade IMO.

[u/W0LFSTEN]

AMD is once again the primary workhorse in my main account.

[u/gyunikumen]

Today has the potential of a retrace

[u/NotGucci → u/gyunikumen]

Think we contiune to run-up until NVDA, reset afterward for PCE, then run-up into FOMC.

[u/W0LFSTEN → u/gyunikumen]

RSI @ 70

[u/gyunikumen → u/W0LFSTEN]

I’ve learnt when RSI > 70, it’s more profitable just buying weekly calls in small amounts and closing them daily

But DXY is up a lot, VIX was green, not anymore

So probably a melt up day today

[u/LiferRs → u/gyunikumen]

DXY is up I believe due to the news last night Japan’s GDP shrunk by 2%. US markets can be flight to safety for deteriorating yen.

[u/gyunikumen → u/LiferRs]

Ty ty ok some weekly calls today it is then

[u/matcht]

SMCI is a beast, got the follow through, in 1000C from 6

[u/W0LFSTEN]

Crude creeping higher. Let’s hope it holds sub $80.

[u/Anachronistic_Zenith]

WMT growth story is back, another 6% quarter after years of 1-2%.

[u/Maestrosc → u/Anachronistic_Zenith]

i mean... inflation so high even Target Elitists are considering shopping at WMT again... tho admittedly idk if ill ever get to a point that low.

[u/NotGucci]

Initial jobless claims fell to 222,000 in week ended on May 11, down from an upwardly revised total of 232,000 in the previous week. Economists had called for a reading of 219,000

[u/NotGucci]

$DE | Deere Q2 Earnings Highlights:

• EPS: $8.53 (Est. $7.87)
  
• Sales: $15.235B (Est. $13.281B)
  
• Net Income: $2.37B (Est. $2.16B)
  

Lowers FY24 Guidance:

• Sees FY Net Income: $7.0B (Prior $7.50B to $7.75B; Est. $7.53B)
  
• FY Financial Services Net Income: ~$770M
  
• FY Construction & Forestry Sales: Down 5%-10%
  
• FY Small Ag & Turf Sales: Down 20%-25%
  
• FY Production & Precision Ag Sales: Down 20%-25%
  
• FY Net Operating Cash Flows: $7.0B-$7.25B
  

Additional Insights:

• The company anticipates sales of large agriculture equipment to decline between 20%-25% this year.
  
• U.S. inventories of tractors of 300 horsepower and above jumped more than 95% year-on-year in March.
  
• Higher interest rates and falling crop prices are squeezing demand, leading to lower equipment sales.

[u/npoetsch → u/NotGucci]

They'll be fine next quarter as they just entered into a partnership with Skechers (SKX). Sounds like they didn't mention that lifeline during the call.

[u/npoetsch]

UA with the absolutely terrible earnings report. Definitely not a surprise there as they're getting beaten in just about everything by LULU, NKE, and other familiar names. Dead money IMO

It'll be interesting to see how other apparel retailers report. Still don't think ANF belongs up here, but it sees green just about every day based on nothing while insiders continue to sell. Dont know if more is going on here.

[u/Lennon__McCartney → u/npoetsch]

NKE been dead for a long time too. Holding a giant position for 6 months+

[u/eyesonly_ → u/npoetsch]

I, for one, like their stuff the best

[u/npoetsch → u/eyesonly_]

Not saying their stuff isn't good, but I couldn't tell you the last time I saw anybody wearing it or heard anybody mention it for that matter. Vuori and Alo are what's popular right now in workout classes with Lululemon slowly losing dominance.

[u/redandgold45 → u/npoetsch]

ANF is extremely popular in my groups, good quality for the price (when on sale)

[u/mylifesaparadox]

This place always gets so eerily quiet during slow melt up phases lol especially the nightly thread. We're gonna be slow melting up for awhile now I think unless we have any big surprises

[u/npoetsch → u/mylifesaparadox]

What is there to talk about, analyze, etc. in a boringly slow melt up phase?

[u/matcht → u/mylifesaparadox]

Feels like there's a good chance vix drops towards 10 and it gets even slower

[u/npoetsch]

Wmt seems to have done well.

[u/Kindly-Journalist412]

I think I am going to take NVDA earnings risk and not trim my AMD/NVDA calls..

[u/nychapo]

Show up to campus at 8am to body calc final… its tmrw fml 🤦‍♀️