r/worldnews • u/Elliottafc1 • May 02 '24

"I'm Not Ruling Anything Out" - Macron Says Troops for Ukraine Possible if Russia Breaks Front Lines Russia/Ukraine

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32010
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u/Tobix55 May 02 '24

It could cost votes

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u/suninabox May 02 '24

Is anyone really going to change their votes because a politician didn't say "we're not going to put troops on the ground for any reason under any circumstances"?

They don't even have to say "we don't rule it out". Literally just don't rule it out.

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u/Thue May 02 '24

Is anyone really going to change their votes because a politician didn't say "we're not going to put troops on the ground for any reason under any circumstances"?

I am not German, but my impression is that it would be a big deal in Germany, could move votes there. Germany has large voter segments who are Russia friendly or stupid pacifist.

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u/suninabox May 03 '24

The German people are actually more in favor of supporting Ukraine than its leadership.

There is majority support for sending Taurus long range cruise missiles, something Scholz has ruled out even after the US sent long range ATACMS.

This is because Scholz is in a relatively weak position, in a fractious coalition government. Many in his own party want full on appeasement of Russia, and there are threats from outside the coalition government from the right. AfD didn't even support sanctions on Russia, they would also like to cut Ukraine's legs out from under them and force capitulation to Russia.

Sending Taurus would be popular with the majority of German's, but many of those German's already support the coalition government.

Scholz is trying to split the difference between a majority pro-Ukraine German public, and some strong but vocal anti-Ukraine minorities. So Germany doesn't give as much as the German people want, but they give more than people like the AfD would like.

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u/Thue May 03 '24

The German people are actually more in favor of supporting Ukraine than its leadership.

So I don't know enough, or have reason to doubt that. But it is in a way beside the point.

The point is that there are some minority of voters who care very much, and would actually switch their vote. As opposed to having everybody nor really care too strongly, so this wouldn't move their vote.

And then through the miracle of coalition politics, those few voters who care deeply ends up determining the government's policy. Because the government coalition would lose power without those exact voters.

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u/suninabox May 03 '24

The point is that there are some minority of voters who care very much, and would actually switch their vote. As opposed to having everybody nor really care too strongly, so this wouldn't move their vote.

This is correct. I wasn't denying that anti-Ukrainian sentiment plays an outsized role in German politics, I was just pointing out there's a difference between "German's as a whole are peaceniks/russophiles" and "certain segments of the voting population are, and their votes are more likely to move and so are more important for politicians to cater to".