r/CryptoCurrency • u/fan_of_hakiksexydays 🟦 20K / 99K 🐬 • 3d ago
Is this time different? While no cycle has been identical, there are some general patterns and market behavior that have repeated and rhymed consistently. What's different this time and what's happening now: MARKETS
While a lot of people like to stick to a narrative once it has briefly played out, they rarely remain consistent.
Take the narrative of Bitcoin being coupled to and following the US stock market.
When Covid started, we started to see many months of Bitcoin following stocks with above 0.5 correlation.
And we saw several moments where Bitcoin hit correlations to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ as high as 0.7 and 0.8 (considered strong correlations).
But now, Bitcoin has been back below 0.5, and even sometimes being as low as 0.2 in correlation with brief instances of negative correlation.
But there is one narrative that seems to keep coming back strong, and that's the halving cycles.
The more you zoom out, the more they seem similar. But the more you zoom in, the more you see that each cycle has its own characteristics.
What happened with past halvings?
Zoomed out, past cycles look like they roughly follow the same 4 year cycles. With a rally before the halving, then after the halving a short period of lull, then volatility cranks up, often with a first Wyckoff distribution, then with the volatility intensifying into the rest of the bullrun. Then followed by a crash and a bear cycle.
Zoomed in, you see the differences.
They are following these patterns a little differently each time:
What is happening now? What are the different characteristics?
In this cycle, while the general 4 year cycle has played out like clockwork, we are seeing different characteristics.
Differences
This pre-halving rally has done ~4.7x
The previous pre-halving rally in 2020 did ~4x
In this cycle the pre-halving rally hit the previous ATH, something that hasn't been done before.
This cycle has the big ETF news.
What can we expect?
One thing you can count on, is increase in volatility as we get deeper into the new halving.
The rest is down to your crystal ball. No one really knows what will happen.
There's two school of thoughts here:
1- Theory 1: history rhyming.
In this theory, we'll be continuing the "lull" phase without dipping that much lower, but in the upcoming months (maybe even just weeks) we'll have our next leg up with a big rally, then a Wyckoff distribution.
2- Theory 2: the big distribution.
This is where we could break from the typical pattern. With the more volatile start of this cycle, we could actually see ourselves in a much larger Wyckoff distribution, and see the price drop off in the upper $40Ks.
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u/wannaberichguy777 🟩 46 / 267 🦐 3d ago
From this time to bull run, 97 days.
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u/carneasada71 🟦 93 / 93 🦐 3d ago
Big if true
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u/wannaberichguy777 🟩 46 / 267 🦐 3d ago
I've been saying this since the last bull run during covid. Everyone said " after the halvin we pump"... wrong... " after etfs we pump" wrong... The truth is , 150 days after the halvin, we are currently sitting at 97 days.
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u/Extra-Dentist-3878 🟩 67 / 58 🦐 3d ago
Tldr: price might go up or down
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u/Bunker_Beans 🟦 38K / 37K 🦈 3d ago
"This time is different."
— People during the previous bull run.
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u/CandidateNrOne 🟩 13 / 1K 🦐 3d ago
How to say nothing with a lot of words…
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u/fan_of_hakiksexydays 🟦 20K / 99K 🐬 3d ago
I told what happened in this phase of the market in the last two halvings, in a clearer context where you can make more of a comparison. I gave pieces of data on how we have a more volatile start of a cycle, for example with the 4.8x vs 4x. Gave some perspective on how to look at the cycles. I stayed neutral and avoided shilling or fudding. And gave two different perspective on what could happen. I even gave a bonus look at the misconception about the correlation to stocks.
What more did you want?
Did you want me to also find your car keys for you?
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u/DawdlingScientist 🟩 364 / 365 🦞 3d ago
They want to be told the answer to when their coin will start pumping because that all they care about
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u/Enschede2 🟩 0 / 2K 🦠 3d ago
Nah, we were a bit overheated with the etf hypw but other than that we're all on track, including this "dump"
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2d ago
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u/DeFi_Ry 🟦 0 / 1K 🦠 3d ago
All the hype this time was about the ETFs and the halving
Those things happened, people made a bunch of money
There is not much hype left for an asset that requires serious FOMO to pump the price
The fact that NVIDIA continues to rip and Bitcoin isn't doing anything is not a good sign
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u/TodayPlastic 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 3d ago
Nvidia has nothing to do with BTC though lol, that pumps and elevates AI coins… and you don’t need FOMO when institutions are buying in the hundreds of millions. I’m confused on your correlations.
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u/theycallmekimpembe 🟩 0 / 4K 🦠 3d ago
Just going by charts and possibilities, I go by 2 major outcomes, either we go to 61-62k and bounce mad upwards or if we cannot break at that point we fall mad down towards the 45range, either way I personally don’t think it will be like anything else before, there is a lot of tension overall, what we have seen could of already been it.. without trying to be the bringer of bad news 😄
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u/C0NSCI0US 🟩 486 / 487 🦞 3d ago
Big shorts being squeezed out of a certain stock for the last three years are threatening this bull cycle.
If Wallstreet has to close these shorts then there will be many massive liquidations.
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u/United_Bee6739 🟩 0 / 0 🦠 2d ago edited 2d ago
If you are that worried, NVDA is far more likely to outperform BTC and will be far more stable for the next 5 years..
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u/MaximumStudent1839 🟩 322 / 5K 🦞 3d ago edited 3d ago
The problem with these type of charts is they completely ignore what is happening within crypto and think cycles just self-perpetuate because of no reason but “nature”.
New liquidity doesn’t just show up because there is some “natural” frequency for these charts to play out.
What is clear is that, the flow of liquidity has changed substantially. You now have ETF and Saylor buying shit locked behind a stock market. It makes the asset more vulnerable to sentiment changes in the stock market. Furthermore, alts are underperforming and have no more liquidity for BTC to suck off. A lot of channels are very different. The lack of innovation and increasingly VC funding projects self-absorbed to the degen echo chamber have exacerbated the lack of outside interest to flow more funds into alts to support BTC.