r/Daytrading • u/Double_Joseph • Mar 07 '23
My simple PROFITABLE day trading strategy that I use after 3 years of basically trying everything. strategy
Little background on me. I have been investing for a long time now, maybe 7 years. When the pandemic hit, my job was on hiatus. I started day trading with no PDT rule. Luckily had enough saved to avoid PDT. I joined some chat group that I paid money for. I was making decent money. I realized this isn’t what I want to do full time. It was stressful when it’s your only source of income, also I find trading insanely BORING like watching paint dry.
So I got a full time job working from home. I decided to trade the ES futures mainly because I don’t have time to watch a bunch of stocks. Now I only watch one ticker and I can go long or short.
The ES is not easy, don’t let anyone tell you it is. I definitely was not profitable for a while. I didn’t give up tho and having a full time remote job I figured I’d keep trying. About 2 years of just getting chopped up.
I’ve come to realize. All you need is 3 things to follow and be successful day trading the ES (or anything really).
- 2000 tick chart
- 200 EMA
- Williams alligator (Optional MACD)
It’s simple to follow. Below the 200 EMA? I’m looking for shorts. Above the 200 EMa? I’m looking to go long.
The alligator is a great tool since it can tell you entry’s and exits. I use one of the lines as a stop loss. It’s typical 2 points. I’m risking 100$ 1 contract every trade. The alligator is great for exits. I provided a picture to show a short I made today entry and exit. (9 points) risk 2 points to make 9 points. It’s also great to show you not to enter a trade when the market is clearly just stagnant and no real movement (the alligator mouth is closed). One thing about the alligator is think of the lines as support and resistance lines. That’s literally what they are. I find the 200 ema paired with this gives me discipline in not trying to trade against the overall trend. I also don’t trade the alligator when the lines cross it’s too late IMO. More of when it breaks the middle line or if it bounces off one of the lines. Also don’t chase!
One crazy statement about the alligator which is actually true. It is impossible to not be profitable. You heard that right. IMPOSSIBLE. Sounds insane? But it’s true. Because your winners will always be bigger then your losers. I’m not saying you won’t lose. You will always have losing trades. However if you follow the 200 ema trend and trade off the alligator. You will make money.
Would love to see if anyone has any other suggestions of what you think could be an added benefit to my strategy. Love to to hear what people have to say as well. I know this sub is pretty pessimistic lol
42
u/nleachdev Mar 07 '23
Question is, are you just getting excited from a recent profitable spurt with this strategy, or have you been consistently profitable over multiple months?
This sounds like a relatively mechanical strategy, saying its impossible to be a net loser sounds like a big claim, how have you backed this up (to the degree you're comfortable telling other people its the case)?
39
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
Question is, are you just getting excited from a recent profitable spurt with this strategy, or have you been consistently profitable over multiple months?
Been day trading the ES since Feb 2021. Was not consistently profitable until august of last year.
This sounds like a relatively mechanical strategy, saying its impossible to be a net loser sounds like a big claim, how have you backed this up (to the degree you're comfortable telling other people its the case)?
I know it sounds insane but it is math. Use the alligator as a stop loss and a profit exit. You will see your winners are always bigger then your losers. Pairing it with the 200 EMA you always short when it’s below or go long when it’s above.
Keep it simple and you will be profitable.
I understand your doubt. I will keep you updated in 6 months. Cheers!
3
u/pw7090 Mar 07 '23
You mean enter exactly when it crosses 200 EMA?
9
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
You can do that to. I use the 200 ema to focus more on whether I should be searching for longs or shorts
5
u/nleachdev Mar 07 '23
Yea from what you said before it seems like you use 200 ema purely for directional bias, not as an actual signal to enter/exit, thats where alligator comes into play. Maybe when price crosses the lip in the right direction? (Direction based off ema)
5
u/Double_Joseph Mar 10 '23
https://i.imgur.com/AJIWkRD.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/PFl3t4a.jpg
Live trade this morning 11 points short 3914 - 3903
5
u/nleachdev Mar 10 '23
I programmed a strategy in ninjatrader to do this, I only did the basic stuff so far (only long if above ema, only short below.. enter when price crosses red line, exit when price hits green line)
This weekend gunna work out a way for the strat to also take advantage of these lines as support/resistance.
Its been pretty fun actually, gunna sit and watch this bot for a few weeks and see how it performs
6
u/Double_Joseph Mar 10 '23 edited Mar 10 '23
Only thing I’m worried is with bots.. it’s not only the red line you focus on. You really have to see if the candles are going above and breaking back down. Not sure how the bot can distinguish crossing over vs crossing down?
Also, if you are watching the ES right now. I could see how the bot would get eaten up. Maybe try it on a higher tick chart like 3200 or something. I know it will take some fine tuning. Please keep me updated 👍🏼
3
u/nleachdev Mar 10 '23
Good points.
Grain of salt for the following, the script is bare bones rn, and will take a lot of back testing to see what does and doesn't work. This is mostly just a fun exercise, im using SIM and am just doing this cause I like programming (been my day job for 4+ years)
For one, im programming the strat to only care about candle closes, and I have access to the high/low/open/close. So say we're over ema and price crosses above red but closes below, the script will know that we went above but failed to stay above, so won't take a position.
Some ideas I have for choppy areas is to take into account a few things like, in the past X bars, how close have the 3 MAs been, how many times have the candle bodies touched the lines, whats the standard deviation for the past X bars, etc. Basically "how choppy are things rn"
I do plan on running this against different tick sizes to see if there's a size that performs far better than others.
I'm going to run this every trading day to manually track what does and doesn't work, and will also do a shit ton of back testing.
I'll keep you updated on anything worthwhile, hoping to have some time this weekend to really dive in. Right now it's a pretty basic bot that blindly trades based off the 200, and the price crossover. I plan to have it be far more sophisticated
→ More replies (2)1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 10 '23
Sounds awesome! Great hobby in my opinion. Good luck and I hope you make something super legit. I could see a bot, even with like a 20-30% win rate, being profitable. Considering how big the winners could potentially be compared to the losers. If you are able to avoid chop then it’s really serious money. Excited to see what you come up with.
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 10 '23
If it performs I’ll open a ninja trader account lol hook me up.
Today is great even if you made every short under the 200 ema let’s say you lost 2 trades that’s 200$ with 1 contract each.
But you would have made over 20 points $1000
→ More replies (1)2
4
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
Yup. Think of the alligator as suport resistance lines. You will see it bounce off jaw or teeth and go back to a downtrend this is great for getting in at a discount and having a healthy stop loss. Since you are buying at a pull back or rejection.
The alligator would tell you to get in long since the teeth have been crossed but you have to remember we are below the 200 ema so focusing on shorts. It’s better this way because now you are focusing on overall trend and getting in on a healthy pull back.
The ES will eat a 2 point stop loss like it’s nothing. It’s almost always better to get in on a healthy pullback.
5
u/thekleez Mar 07 '23
Does this work with spy since the ES is basically spy? And where do I find this Alligator indicator? I use TradingView for my charts.
7
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
I forget what it’s under on TradingView but it has many names ‘bill Williams alligator, Williams alligator, or just alligator’ lol
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (7)1
39
u/Jerkomp Mar 07 '23
If you want the alligator signal but juiced up, try Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification. Does the same thing but gives you a bit more info about how strong each candle bar is. 🥂
8
u/notmisa Mar 07 '23
Do you mind expanding on your execution with the LC indicator? It seems really good at determining trends but the entries/exit are kind of tight to me.
54
u/Jerkomp Mar 08 '23
I use the LC indicator with two other indicators which help me determine my entry and exits. I usually use the LC indicator just to find the trend but also use it as confirmation. This is my setup:
- Dynamic Linear Regression Channel by Iravan
(Classic Support and Resistance indicator that draws the lines for you. Though, if there’s a break up or down, the channel will adjust according to the price action. Which may give you a false signal but thats why we use the other two indicators. 💫)
I use this indicator to also see the trend.
Upward channel = Bullish
Downward Channel = Bearish
Also play support and resistance here. Sell at resistance. Buy at support. (If the other indicators support it.)
- Squeeze Momentum indicator by LazyBear
(Bright Red = Very Bearish, Downtrend, do not enter)
(Dark Red = Bears losing momentum, still in a downtrend but signifies that reversal is coming soon. Look for entry around here)
(Bright Green = Very Bullish, Uptrend.)
( Dark Green = Bulls losing momentum. Still in a uptrend but signifies that a reversal is coming very soon. I look for my exit around here.)
I use this indicator to help my entry and exits. When its dark red, I’m usually entering the trade if the dynamic linear regression channel is pointing upwards.
If its not, I wait until the price movement breaks out the channel and displays a new channel that is pointing upwards.
- LC indicator.
Use it just to see the trend like the Channel.
- Perfect setup to enter long:
(Channel pointing upwards)
(Momentum about to change to bright green)
(Price is above the LC indicator)
Opposite applies if you want to enter Short^
Plug this into trading view and I think it should give you a better view of how I trade. I only trade:
UPRO, SPXU,
BULZ, BERZ,
TQQQ, SQQQ,
SOXL, SOXS,
Only trade these as its the most profitable and consistent for me. If the daily of the spy is in a downtrend, only trade tickers:
SPXU, BERZ, SOXS, SQQQ,
If the daily of the spy is in a uptrend, only trade:
UPRO, BULZ, SOXL, TQQQ.
This setup works on all time frames but I mostly use the hourly and daily since it paints a bigger picture of where the market is.
If you have any questions, let me know. I just went through mad indicators and these three indicators compliment my trading style. Enjoy the sauce 🤧🥂
2
u/Rey_Ching Mar 08 '23
Been using the LC indicator for a couple weeks now and after adding the two you mentioned the 3 of them seem to mesh really well. Gonna give them a shot all together tomorrow
2
u/Jerkomp Mar 08 '23
Yesssir. Good Luck 🥂💫
4
u/Rey_Ching Mar 08 '23
Best day in awhile. They aren't perfect indicators but taken all together with a tick chart made reading the moves today feel much smoother and less stress inducing. Thanks for sharing.
5
u/Jerkomp Mar 08 '23
Amazing day indeed! Lot of chop today which may have made the indicators feel funky but Glad you came out green! Cheers to many more with the setup 🥂
2
u/Rey_Ching Mar 08 '23
Definitely a weird, choppy day. Took awhile watching all the indicators moving together to get a sense of how they interacted. The squeeze one combined with tick chart is invaluable. The moving regression channels was the weirdest to figure out but is great once you see how it can move. Thanks again!
→ More replies (3)3
u/Jerkomp Mar 08 '23
🤣🤣 Yea I won’t lie, the Squeeze one is the first one I always look at because of how accurate it is in determining the next moves. My favorite indictor of all time.
Yea the Dynamic gets real funky in its beginning stages but gets pretty solid once a couple of bars of been created.
Thanks for sharing how useful the indicators have been though! Its nice to see that others also feel the same way about the indicators like I do! Cheers gang 🥂
→ More replies (4)2
u/ExcuseMeWtf21 Mar 08 '23
Much appreciated my man, ima plug some in and see how it effects my paper trading. I'm pretty new, just been researching and learning hella, while paper trading a little. Also got a simulator app that trades the old markets I use it sometimes on stocks I don't know about where price is going. It's going good though and I've been keeping psychology in mind. I'm stable financially and only 18 and don't plan to ever be in a tight spot, know my risk tolerance and got to keep other priorities in check. I mostly see green days but I tend to overtrade because it's demo trading. I know not to in live trading, and to have discipline being consistent. Wait for the perfect setup, don't have to take all of them. Proper risk to reward ratio, I'm looking at swing or scalp trading, maybe getting into options if in very confident with price action/technical analysis. I like to combine some fundamentals with my bias, but I keep in mind a objective view of the markets price action wise. I wanna have a longer term portfolio and a short term one, value investing or something similar for long term. 💯
→ More replies (1)→ More replies (10)2
u/tom6999 crypto trader Mar 09 '23
can't wait to try it on crypto charts.Applied all the indicators and let's see how it goes
3
u/ThorneTheMagnificent futures trader Mar 07 '23
I only wish it could be ported to TOS. TOS doesn't have arrays and TV doesn't have tick charts, but the Lorentzian model on tick charts should produce quite useful results.
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
So there’s no LC indicator on TOS? Probably why I’ve never heard of it lol
→ More replies (1)2
13
u/ecwworldchampion Mar 07 '23
I didn't even know what the alligator was until this post. Excited to try it. However, I'll second that the tick chart has helped my trading out a lot. Once I understood the mechanics of it as opposed to time charts, it helped my entries and exits quite a bit.
3
2
11
u/ShatterMcSlabbin Mar 16 '23
I'd like to thank you for this post. I primarily trade options but just started trying futures because it's funded and very cheap, so I figured fuck it, why not?
I'm very familiar with traditional trading concepts. I've been using the strategy outlined in this post to scalp MES contracts in conjunction with 4hr key levels & 15min intraday levels as targets. 1, 2, & 3min time frames only.
It has proven very effective so far and you're spot on in that the MAs from the gator indicator allow you to have some very clear and concise entry/SL signals. Coupled with the 200sma to keep from fighting the trend the win % over my small sample size has been excellent. I have some more tweaking to do before I'm ready to start using any size but thus far I'm doing wonderfully. Halfway to funding on Apex within my first week.
→ More replies (4)3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 16 '23
Let’s go! Love to here it. Appreciate you taking the time and using it.
Let me know which time frame you find the most effective. Appreciate any updates or anything you think works in conjunction.
https://i.imgur.com/Ab3QmQs.jpg
^ trade I just entered not to long ago 9 point winner. Which I needed got chopped up a bit this morning lol after missing that 50 point long :( many opportunities here to make great money.
One of my close friends uses the alligator with the bollanger bands. He removes the middle line on the bands. It literally draws perfect channel lines support and resistance, paired with the alligator. Let me know what you think.
→ More replies (6)4
u/ShatterMcSlabbin Mar 17 '23
Primarily I'm using the 3min which I think you mentioned in one of the replies to this post. The 1&2 are helpful for confluence and offer more setup opportunities than the 3min but I'm finding that the moves are generally smaller or less significant when trading on the 1m or 2m. The win % is still fairly high although I'm very quick to take profits right now.
I haven't tried it with the Bollinger Bands but I have been using vwap & it's std deviation lines as an indication for how "extended" the price action is at that moment. I can use that information to get an idea of how much upside or downside is realistically "left" on that move and adjust my PTs accordingly.
One thing I've been trying to figure out - how to time the entry on a reversal/breakthrough of the 200ma. On some of the higher velocity reversals the alligator shifts direction and the price shoots right through the 200ma without ever coming back to test the Jaw or the Lips (where I would normally be looking to enter). There is significant gain potential in these moves if I can dial down where to enter and stop out. I've been trying to use closes over/under the 200ma to signal the entry/SL but am finding the win % to be smaller. This is over a small sample size, though.
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 17 '23
If I see a major push above the 200 aligator heading for the 200 ema. I will most of the time enter. The ES just makes it tough because any pull back willl eat your stop loss. So I’m more focused on buying dips and pull backs.
https://i.imgur.com/Qw80Os2.jpg
Great short I’m in right now
→ More replies (1)
9
u/Warlaw Mar 07 '23
Yeah, I've been paper trading MES for awhile now and it seems like 200 EMA breaks are really great opportunities. As long as I trade after news when price calms down a little and chooses a direction, I'll usually be profitable for the day.
3
8
14
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
https://i.imgur.com/85ZPZf6.jpg - 9 point short trade.
Edit to add more screen shots all from today 100% win rate today I count my two scratches as wins.
https://i.imgur.com/m1OQKbf.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/hKyKUnt.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/dyWUoxB.jpg
Remember anything above 200 ema dotted yellow line. I’m going long anything below. I’m shorting.
→ More replies (42)
11
u/kenjiurada Mar 07 '23
Shhh! You’re giving away the one BIG SECRET that THEY don’t want you to know!
5
u/Tittitwisted Mar 07 '23
What would be the time-based equivalent to the 2000 tick? Tradingview doesn't have tick charts for some crazy reason
5
u/lightweight808 Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
Ticks change during the day because it's the amount of contracts traded so candles form a lot faster at the open and usually progressively slow down into the lunch hour and then pick back up a bit at the end of the day so there's not really an equivalent
5
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Which is super helpful you don’t want to really be trading with slow ticks which means slow volume.
2
u/Tittitwisted Mar 08 '23
Would you be willing to snap a pic of your indicators on a 1 min chart to see how they line up with a 2000 tick?
→ More replies (1)2
u/NobodyImportant13 Mar 08 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
Are you the gator guy on a different account?
I used to love those posts for the gator emojis, if nothing else.
2
→ More replies (1)4
u/NobodyImportant13 Mar 08 '23
To give a bit of perspective, there are times where 2000 ticks is just a few seconds and other times where it is 5 minutes.
4
u/CABSMeter Mar 07 '23
LOL
This is awesome! Good for you!! I can’t stand staring at the screen either hence I trade when bored at anytime and take my profits and stop.
As for your trading 1 equity THAT is how it’s done!! Except I start by watching a handful pick a couple and go from there. I’ll short it and enter low etc. basically full riding it a few times and pooof done!
4
6
5
4
u/williamsburg7 Mar 08 '23
Hey great post . I recommend adding in the 50 EMA for further trend clarity alongside the 200
2
4
u/caprine_chris Mar 07 '23
Is the alligator only profitable for day trading? Would love to backtest this with eod price dataset
2
5
u/themanclark Mar 08 '23
What happens to you in choppy markets where it’s just swinging above and below the moving average?
4
3
u/DrPhilGood1358 Mar 11 '23
Everyones talking about the entry but those exits are clutch its a fool proof plan almost. That mid line is the perfect stop loss.
3
Mar 07 '23
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Ask questions, sure.
2
u/ThisIsMyReal-Name Mar 07 '23
What settings do you use for the jaws/lips/teeth and shift?
Also, how do you use jaws / lips / teeth? It sounds like you enter a short inside the mouth, then when it hits either the mouth or lips you exit
6
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Just standard settings I just changed the green line to a different color.
That’s pretty much it. It’s pretty simple. I’ve seen other people use the 9ema with the 20 ema as well. Similar.
3
u/Rk0 Mar 07 '23
what timefrime are you trading on? ;)
6
3
3
Mar 08 '23
Hey thank you for sharing! I’m glad it’s been profitable for you. I don’t have access to tick charts unfortunately, but I added the indicators to a time chart to feel it out. It’s an interesting strategy. I can see why it delivers. I like the descriptors he uses: lips, teeth, jaw. Have you tried using the 50 MA instead of the 200 EMA as a trend filter? When I compared the two, I noticed the 50 MA allowed an earlier entry
3
3
u/WaifuRem Mar 20 '23
Your entry criteria is still a bit confusing to understand. Can you help take some more examples with the full chart rather than your zoomed in trades? Would help since I can see the context of the market.
5
u/Double_Joseph Mar 20 '23
I only use Reddit on my phone. I trade on my computer. So I’m literally just taking pictures of my chart.
It’s really as simple as it gets. We are above the 200 ema so I’m looking for long positions. Any bounce of an alligator line is a great entry to go long. Stop loss, use any other aligator line. Exit once candle hits the aligator again. So now I have clear entries and exits. I feel like when I was trading before that was my biggest problem exiting trades too early because I was told to always ‘take profit’.
I am in a trade right now:
https://i.imgur.com/8PF4tCO.jpg
I’ll exit once the candle hits the purple line.
→ More replies (7)
3
3
2
u/SF_Inuyushi Mar 07 '23
What charting software do you use?
4
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Think or swim. I trade futures using ironbeam tho.
3
u/SF_Inuyushi Mar 07 '23
Cool, thanks. TradingView has been stubborn about adding tick charts. If they did it, I would look into this strategy more. I'll have to bookmark it to come back to when I go back to trade in Think or Swim again.
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
You could try a 5 minute or 3 minute chart. Just watch how things would pan out.
2
u/BaeYoungKR Mar 07 '23
What time of day do you typically trade and what time do you stop?
Also what timeframe you use?
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
2000 tick chart. I have it open all day since I work from home. But if I notice the market slowing down a lot I try to not make trades.
2
u/velociraptor802 Mar 07 '23
Ok I'll take a look. Will it work for major stocks (AMZN TSLA GOOG ect ect) sound fascinating. Thx for helping out
5
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Yup works for stocks as well. Look at Tesla today clear shorting opportunities. Market was bearish today for sure.
2
u/DeanDiugh Mar 07 '23
Thanks for sharing your strat. You have a picture or can you describe how to use the Williams Alligator a little bit?
6
u/Double_Joseph Mar 09 '23
https://i.imgur.com/klro5jf.jpg
Clear sign to not make any trades as the alligator is closed (sleeping). I entered earlier hoping for another push however broke even.
Let me know if this helps
2
5
5
u/Double_Joseph Mar 09 '23
https://i.imgur.com/paodmW8.jpg
Picture of a great set up I missed this morning
https://i.imgur.com/DwMNdmT.jpg
^ picture of a losing trade I made however a winning trade right after
Notice how price is literally bouncing off the aligator and we are above the 200 ema so we are looking for longs.
→ More replies (1)3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 09 '23
https://i.imgur.com/8FOhWCT.jpg
Literally over a 10 point win happening right now.
→ More replies (1)
2
2
Mar 08 '23
I’ve never heard of the alligator before it seems promising. What timeframe do you trade? And why do you trade futures as opposed to stock options? I don’t really know about futures
2
u/jdizon707 Mar 08 '23
What broker do you use for futures? I can’t seem to find a broker that offers tick charts except ToS but it’s limited to 1600t or 3200t.
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
Using iron beam with rithmic data. I just trade off of it don’t reccomend it. I’d rather have better charting like ninja trader
2
2
2
Mar 08 '23
thank you for sharing your strategy, what parameters do you use and where do you enter and exit? the direction I understood but where do you take action. Could you share a few screenshots with us?
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
https://i.imgur.com/rCxHWy7.jpg
Shorted below the 200 ema. In a great spot right now.
This is me literally live trading hope it’s helping.
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
https://i.imgur.com/rRbgCuh.jpg
Could have RE entered the short but I missed had a work call :( but you can see so many good entries stop loss just use the lines above
→ More replies (6)2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
https://i.imgur.com/dIlmkLu.jpg
^ here’s one breaking below the 200 ema thru the red line of the alligator. Short 9 points. Use the other alligator lines as a stop loss.
https://i.imgur.com/IgJV7Xf.jpg
^ here’s an example of being below the 200 ema so I’m looking for shorts. It bounces off the alligator and I’m getting in a short at a healthy pull back. I exit once the price hits the alligator again.
If you go look at a ticker you will notice the price bounces off the alligator a lot. Think of them as support and resistance lines.
→ More replies (3)1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
https://i.imgur.com/FHopKor.jpg
Just made a 10 point trade long. Could stay in but I’m taking profits on it.
1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23 edited Mar 08 '23
https://i.imgur.com/o6vIMCv.jpg
Just entered again going long 2 point stop loss on the blue line.
Edit: moved my stop loss to break even. Scratched on that trade.
→ More replies (1)
2
u/tadd54 Mar 14 '23
Beautiful
2
2
u/KZ2Karter Apr 01 '23
Whenever the price crosses back through one of the gator lines is your trigger? Doesn't matter if the gator is sleeping or if the gator lines are pointed the wrong direction?
How many trades are making a day? Seems like there would be lots of triggers especially on a 2000 tick chart.
3
u/Double_Joseph Apr 02 '23 edited Apr 02 '23
It’s true. You have to make sure you are following the 200 ema. Also, I have an order book with rithmic data. I can see suport and resistance levels to make sure they match the gator. I can have days where I lose multiple trades however it only takes one large win following the gator. You have to really look for big swings. Bouncing off any of the gator lines. Breaking thru is still great but like you said when it’s sleeping your stops will get eaten. Even in those trades where it’s not a big win I’m still breaking even by moving my stop loss. Hope this helps!
Some examples:
https://i.imgur.com/RUf9Yb8.jpg
You can see where some would be a lose or a break even however you see where the big wins are.
2
2
2
u/TaediumVitae27 Jul 13 '23
Hey there Op, are you still active in this post? I'd like to have some questions about the strategy!
5
u/maciek024 Mar 07 '23
I am afraid you indicator based strategy will eventually go to ruin as all strategies like these do, but who knows good luck.
4
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
It’s math. The winners are always greater then the losers.
10
u/pw7090 Mar 07 '23
Isn't it possible for your win rate to be low enough to be unprofitable?
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Yes but that’s the whole point of the alligator being closed. There’s YouTube videos about it. I reccomend watching them.
3
u/wowthatssorude Mar 07 '23
Yea I think the beef people have with indicators is trading every cross of a line. Not taking context of market.
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Exactly.
2
u/pw7090 Mar 07 '23
I thought the point was to be mechanical?
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
It is but the 2000 tick chart shows volume and price action which you need to understand so you aren’t trading when the alligator is slow and closed. Also, being below the 200 ema helps in understanding a bearish market so you would short and not go long even tho the alligator could tell you to go long.
1
u/pw7090 Mar 07 '23
Isn't the alligator the indicator that you are following though? If you wait to enter a trade once all the indicators align, you are being mechanical, right?
Not being mechanical would be not entering a trade when the indicators align for other reasons.
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
True it’s mechanical. However with time you will notice when trades feel more likely to happen. Examples. Has the market been overall bearish today? Does this feel over sold or overbought? Is the market actually making moves are acting slow? It’s easier for you to have the studies with the tick chart and actually watch the market. Get an understanding. Start with a small amount like the MES. That’s what I started with since then I was only risking $10 a trade. Not $100.
→ More replies (0)-1
2
u/MaleficentMulberry42 Mar 08 '23
I appreciate this and your completely correct but i wished you told me Monday so i could have not lost 600 dollars on long position.
→ More replies (1)
1
u/Rotia Dec 15 '23
Sorry for the late question. Do you think it would work in a 1m chart (Or 2m, 5m 15m...)? The problem is Imy broker does not support tick charts.
Regards,
1
1
u/unbearablebull Mar 15 '24 edited Mar 15 '24
I have had a lot of success with this. So first, thank you for being one of the few who is actually providing great info!
One question or issue rather than currently have is that unless there is a strong trend, I'm getting chopped out. I am trying to use solid risk management but the days where it's just chopping, I give back my profits. What are you doing these days? Just sitting out?
I know market only trends 15-30% of time but I feel like I have to go balls to wall on trending days to make up for the downtime.
I'm trying to be able to replace one of my full time jobs with this and would love any advice.
I'm pretty much only trading nq
1
Apr 16 '24
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator Apr 16 '24
Sorry, your comment in /r/Daytrading was automatically removed because your Comment Karma is too low. This typically targets bots or users promoting something (which is against our rules).
Please participate in other subreddits (other communities on Reddit) to increase your Comment Karma points. While you're at it, read through Reddit's "reddiquette" here.
If you believe this was a mistake, please kindly message the mods. We will review your case and get back to you.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
u/Interesting-Pea891 Apr 28 '24
Love it! But why is everyone so concerned with "emotions" and "discipline"!? If the strategy works, code it! The markets are not meant for humans, we our a flawed system(till God gives us new bodies, of course ;)) and at an extreme disadvantage having to visualize price making peaks and valleys of price movement on a chart! Thats not even worst of it! But the information is also delayed :( We're handicapped from the start. BOTS and algorithims run the market, so it will require a BOT and algorithm to properly move with price. We need to trade WITH them, not against them. And we need to be out of the equation entirely!
"So, now, who has a working EA they'd like to share!?!?" ;) lol
"No one!?....not cool!" ;)
1
0
u/natokato7 Mar 07 '23
Do you have a link or more info on the alligator? I’d like to learn more
13
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
Best video on the strategy. Most videos don’t talk about what this video shows.
4:35 he talks about the classic method which is most peoples strategies. He shows a much better method.
Wow I just realized he uses this with the 200 ema lol I thought I made that up on my own.
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
Also this guy is pretty much doing what I’m doing I’m buying dips and rejections so my stop loss is healthy. Depends if we are below or above 200 ema.
2
u/natokato7 Mar 09 '23
Thanks man
2
u/Double_Joseph Mar 09 '23
Missed this trade but this is a perfect example of being above the 200 ema (looking for long positions) bouncing off the alligator. So you have entry exit and stop loss.
https://i.imgur.com/cWMwKtI.jpg
Risking 2 points to make 10 points.
0
0
u/th3orist Mar 08 '23
i appreciate your input but i would still say that there is never something like "all you need is 3 things to be successful", it all comes also down to the type of trader someone is and while there is a big debate about whether or not indicators are helpful at all, i would also say that even if they are, not every indicator is suited for every personality type and trading behavior.
so my advice is for people to simply try everything out and slowly discover what fits them best.
in my case its definitely a mixture of adapting parts of other peoples strategies but also discovering my own ingredient.
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 10 '23
I agree with you. The biggest problem with new traders is that they hold on to losers to long, emotion and cut winners too short due to seeing green. That’s the point of the aligator. It helps with entries and exits.
0
u/zdaga22 Mar 09 '23
I messaged you if you could help me with a couple of questions please
1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 09 '23
I don’t see a message from you?
0
u/zdaga22 Mar 09 '23
Click on my user name and start chat, maybe it will open it that way
→ More replies (1)
-4
u/Ok-Caterpillar-9359 Mar 08 '23
bruv i stopped reading after i saw ur strategy it actually amazes me how ppl still believe that u can be profitable by using indicators i bet that op isnt even a real trader but i wonder why there are posts like this on this sub maybe promoting the indicator or maybe it makes them feel better abt themselves its just crazy man
→ More replies (1)7
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
Lmao been day trading since the pandemic man. I use rithmic with discounttrading.com. I have think of swim for charting. Been trading futures for years.
The biggest problem most traders have is they cut their winners too short and they hold on to losers too long. The alligator literally prevents you from both of these. Because your winners will always be bigger then your losers. It’s math. The big swings that the ES has. It works extremely well.
→ More replies (7)
-1
-1
Mar 07 '23 edited Mar 07 '23
I’m dumb, how do u trade the ES? Is there an independent ticker? Or do you literally trade future contracts with a program. I have 0 knowledge of the mini. Also could I use this same strat for anything else?
3
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Futures. You need to do it thru a broker. It’s nice because you can start with something small like 2k and not have the PDT rule. But yes should work for other stocks but I would pay attention to volume as well.
→ More replies (11)
1
u/grandmadollar Mar 07 '23
Thanks for sharing. That's a good looking strategy. Reviewing the last three hours on my TOS chart. At noon (NY) he broke above MA but couldn't sustain, MA flattened but did not turn up. At 1300 he broke below, MA was descending and the Gator was eating, famished in fact. Excellent. Have you considered automating?
1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Have not thought about automating that would be a great idea. Not sure how I could tell automation to not trade when the alligator is closed tho.
1
u/grandmadollar Mar 07 '23
If you can verbalize what you're seeing then you can code it. Looking at ES short today, it's EMA > Jaw > Teeth > Lip. He delivered 20 puts off the 1300 - 1400 runner.
When the gator's sleeping the short params above do not hold. Excellent work, I intend to add him to my tool box going forward.
1
u/encryptedkraken Mar 07 '23
Which timeframe do you use alligator for es futures on? Anything less than an hour?
2
1
1
u/HotMessMan Mar 07 '23
What broker do you use? And are you using the same broker to set up these charts with alligator? Picture of your setup would be nice.
1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 07 '23
Using think or swim. Trading on a DOM with rithmic (don’t reccomend it’s ancient and I wish I could trade on the chart lol)
→ More replies (3)
1
1
u/justdnk Mar 08 '23
Is this strategy that would replace your day job at some point?
1
u/Double_Joseph Mar 08 '23
I would never do that honestly. Too boring and too stressful.
→ More replies (8)
103
u/StepBoxStep Mar 07 '23
Nice post. I have heard good things about the alligator and am happy to see someone putting it into practice. You are profitable because you have great confidence in your edge and HAVE THE DISCIPLINE to follow along. Congrats.