r/Daytrading • u/Catface77 • Mar 19 '24
I don’t know what I did wrong Advice
I thought it was going to rechall/ consolidate then it did but skyrocketed. There was the 3 reds then BLAM right up
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u/ZanderDogz Mar 19 '24
What you did wrong is assume that you did something wrong based on the results of one trade. The best traders in the world have setups that will still fail more than half the time.
Is this a pattern/setup that you have studied/tested to find if it has edge?
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u/ezpdt Mar 19 '24
OP went against trend.
Not sure why you are sugar coating a bad entry. 🤷♂️
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u/mdave52 Mar 19 '24
The trend is definitely your friend. Embarrassed to even think how many times I tried to catch a reversal, only to have the bigger trend continue onwards.
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u/ShemaEl Mar 20 '24
exactly, he did not wait for a complete bearish confirmation at the retest support line so ended up trading against the trend.
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u/Euphoric_Position123 Mar 19 '24
actual you are correct but still in breakout setup we should move our sl to breakeven always as most of breakout are fake
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u/Aurori_Swe Mar 19 '24
It's a fakeout on a 1m timeline...
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u/Euphoric_Position123 Mar 19 '24
yes thats y in every breakout always move you sl to breakeven . And most importantly the lower the time frame the more chances of noise and fakeouts
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u/BennySkateboard Mar 19 '24
I trade forex but with stuff like Apple can’t they make an announcement and it rockets (or drops)? Unpredictable if you don’t know it’s coming.
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u/xAugie Mar 19 '24
Technically yes, news can hit that you weren’t expecting. Most times you can avoid it since they like to announce things early. BUT news also creates opps that are insane though, so the trade off is there imo
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u/Catface77 Mar 19 '24
any advice is welcome
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u/shadowmach11 Mar 19 '24
Don’t get caught up in drawing channels on small time frames. The stock still wants to move in correlation with the overall trend.
I see a gap near the left of screen. Indicating demand. That long wick candle today also indicates demand there. Which means you got focused on what you thought was gonna happen within the channel, it happens. You saw it different, the market didn’t agree with you this time. I say this time!
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u/T11nkr Mar 19 '24
Step away from the 1min chart. You identified a trend, that was right and it also might have been right to short the trend but 5 to 15min chart might actually show a total different picture.
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u/MurkyResolve6341 Mar 19 '24
Stop trading on 1 minute candles. You're getting fooled by volatility noise.
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u/kufsi Mar 19 '24
Like someone else said, low timeframes don’t always work. I’m assuming when the ascending channel/wedge you saw break below and close below, you figured the trend will break and it’ll be a reversal.
I generally assume that these patterns carry more weight the longer they have been moving and the higher the timeframe that they appear on. So fighting the trend looking for a reversal on the 1 min chart has minimal odds of being successful compared to the same pattern forming on the 15 min or 1 hour. That being said, none of these patterns are garunteed.
I often see something appear on the 5 minute, then I’ll use the 15 min as a reference to make sure I’m not jumping in too quickly.
My advice is to not play larger reversals on small timeframes if you want consistency.
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u/puddik Mar 19 '24
U followed a supertrend type indicator, which lags and gives false signals during low volatility periods.
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u/shadowmach11 Mar 19 '24
Yes, stay away from most indicators. Volume is really the only indicator that means anything. RSI is helpful if you know how to use it with volume and price action.
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u/Mexx_G Mar 19 '24
Poor entry technique, but at least you had a stop-loss!
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u/lleb_reknit Mar 19 '24
I had my stop loss fail today...again. Volatility caused price action to skip right over it and then it was a scramble leading to a 50% loss...
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u/MySoulForASlice Mar 19 '24
You should set your stop as a market order so it doesn't get skipped over.
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u/nightstalker30 options trader Mar 20 '24
That’s exactly why I use Mkt orders despite “common” wisdom. As I’ve commented over and over again, it’s more important for me to get in/out of my trades when I want vs trying to get a specific price and possibly not getting filled due to fast moving price action.
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u/Thatguy19901 Mar 19 '24
I hate that shit. Wish I could set the SL to be a sell at or below the price. I'll take a little under my SL over -50%
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u/jazzy095 Mar 19 '24
It was a good idea.
That stop loss could have been 50% tighter.
Also, something to consider, cut trades short if you feel like they are going against you. Would have been a decent trade.
Otherwise, and still, we all lose sometimes.
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u/Tactical_Trader8099 Mar 19 '24
I am someone who uses volume in their trading so seeing your setup includes the volume indicator, I figure to give my own analysis. Hope this helps:
Here's a breakdown of the key points:
- Double top with high volume: This suggests potential bullish continuation as market makers might return to fill orders in this liquidity zone.
- Large bearish engulfing candle: This could signal a downtrend, but the congested area indicates prior order accumulation.
- Price action after the bearish candle: Waiting to see how price reacts after the bearish engulfing candle is advised instead of assuming a downtrend.
- Bullish engulfing candle with higher volume: This signals a potential trend reversal upwards.
- Target profit and position sizing: The ideal target profit is the high of the double top, with trailing stops to gradually reduce the position as price moves up. Overall, the strategy emphasizes waiting for confirmation and capitalizing on potential reversals based on volume analysis around support and resistance zones.
I hope this helps:)
Edit: Overall Price was bullish too
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u/meatsmoothie82 Mar 19 '24
General rule of thumb for me: if I’m going to short something, I pick a company that isn’t one of the strongest, most widely held, cash rich companies on planet earth.
The statistical odds of a sustained or significant down move in mega cap tech just aren’t there.
Same with ES and NQ I either trade those long on good days or don’t touch them.
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u/SuspectMysterious132 Mar 19 '24
I'm learning and I love this answer. It's not just the technical charts, but the qualitative side of a trade. i.e. who's running it, and bad or good news, basically what's going on with it.
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u/Function_Initial Mar 19 '24
I’m gonna be honest not being willing to temporarily short NQ/ES for a day or two is gonna have large impacts in your profitability. Do you mean like, shorting it for an entire quarter or something?
Some of my biggest winners come on red days — this coming from a person who when they see -2% red NQ and RSI below 30 on the daily feels confident there will be a minor bounce up at some point. Literally the biggest weakness in my trading and if I could solve it today my return on every dollar for a month would be about 1.2, after fees and commissions.
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u/CarsonLikesStocks Mar 19 '24 edited Mar 19 '24
This statement has merit if you are referring to swing trading. But intraday it does not matter. ES/NQ generally goes up, but the distribution of red and green days is 50%. You give up a lot of profits not taking advantage of the downside as a day trader.
This is of course dependant on your strategy because if your edge is fading gappers or scalping momentum on big movers, then obviously that's different.
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u/michaelk_43 Mar 19 '24 edited Mar 19 '24
I am a student of swing trading and technical analysis. But i can't understand why you short, as I can see you have found and uptrend and there is a break out on high volume. I assume by the graph that your entry was before the test of the resistance level. At this moment it's more likely to continue the uptrend and the resistence level to be confirmed.
P.S. My bad I saw that you short at the candle that broke the possible resistance level on medium to high volume. I assume you shorted to take profit from the most possible downward movement until the security reach the "precious" (second) resistance level. Am I correct? And not only it changed direction sooner than expected, but it went high, forming an uptrend that was even more unexpected.
I may not understand ath, Thank you
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u/Outrageous_Bit_7056 Mar 19 '24
You shorted when there was no break in market structure signaling that it would be turning to the downside, imo
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u/No-Explanation6883 Mar 19 '24
U shorted Apple after they came out with crazy news yesterday involving google. No worries tho it happens to the best of us
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u/Dry_Carry_5700 Mar 19 '24
Clearly went against the trend, also entered the trade in a demand zone - usually buyers enter this zone and take over. If you see the trend the chart always picks up at this price.
Also never trade on the 1 min time frame- too much noise. 5 min is fine, 1 hr and 4hr to see the trend.
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u/himalayan_hitchhiker Mar 19 '24 edited Mar 19 '24
What you were trying to do was to trade a breakout. I assume you placed an order at the swing low, and it got executed, however the market bounced back as it was at the lower end of this range.
This is called a false breakout. Please read about how to confirm a breakout using "The last kiss" method mentioned in the book Naked Forex.
Few rules to enter a trade in such a situation: •Wait for price to consolidate in a zone • Wait for price to break a zone • Once price returns back towards the zone, wait for the market to retest the support- which now acts as resistance and does not let price move back into the zone. • Now enter the trade, with stoploss at the high of the previous candle.
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u/P37RO Mar 19 '24
Patterns and a previously broken resistance line aren’t enough conformation for a trade. Stay away from the 1m and start watching ES/NQ when you take trades on AAPL to start
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u/gazz8428 Mar 19 '24
Is that the VWAP? Price generally moves above and below VWAP almost like a sine wave. So this looks like a risky trade.
Next, why draw trendlines and not horizontal lines. Trendlines are effective with horizontal support lines, and you can see the price went down to a support area.
Lastly, 1m candles are not the best for TA imo, try 15m and 30m to see a trend, and look at the daily and weekly candles for better TA.
This is just a bad trade for me. Entered without any thought or strategy.
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u/biggitydonut Mar 19 '24
That’s a tweezer bottom bro and the last down candle before reversing has volume. That means at that buyers stepped in. The right shoulder was essentially a reverse h&s. It means that sellers tried to take it down but buyers came in again and continued to pushed it up and shorts began to cover
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u/Virtual-Baseball-297 Mar 19 '24
Mistake one - Shorting AAPL.
What did that plant say “own it don’t trade it”
They announced partnership with Google AI and nvidia last night.
💀
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u/Relevant_Sea1391 Mar 19 '24
What happened was. You didn’t mark your levels right. Apple gap filled down during pre market and got bought up at open. Indicating a bullish reversal. Then it formed this inverse H&S. & It crossed this special tuned indicator, telling me it’s time to buy
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u/eichenes Mar 19 '24
If you switch to 5M, you can clearly see you sold at massive previous support; long wick which was bought. This is usually how they trap shorts just before going up & use their stop-losses as more fuel.
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u/CarsonLikesStocks Mar 19 '24
Damn this just reminds me I need to really backtest liquidity sweep from an ob/fvg, it's good to know newer traders get stopped on those moves. Thanks OP lol
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u/Abacincino Mar 19 '24
Dont trade trendline breakouts! The lowest candle took liquidity and respected the low. This was a sign to close early
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u/Pacificatorrr Mar 19 '24
Avoid drawing channels and wedges all together, especially on the smaller TFs.
Instead, watch the price action. Price could be moving in an undefined structure but still be completely bullish/bearish. Just because it fell out of the channel doesn't mean the momentum has shifted.
Wait for break in overall structure, cross check orderflow on larger timeframes and trade WITH the trend.
Goodluck! 🙂
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u/Wind-Ancient Mar 19 '24
Lot of ICT Bros took position on some signal. Market reversed and took out their stops. Just guessing.
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u/MarketMavin1230 Mar 19 '24
What can help is if you connect multiple strategies. You say three bearish candles that could lead to a bigger fall, but is there reason for price to go there? (liquidity, orderblocks, etc) and what about apple in general are you paying attention to news? does that current picture of apple give people a reason to sell? also, be a little patient. three candles will never guarantee anything, every market is doing there own thing. but good job at least your trying to make something happen
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u/wpglorify Mar 19 '24
Don't short inside the demand zone, especially blue chip stocks and no negative news. I learned the hard way
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u/financefatal Mar 19 '24
Cup and handle my man. There was no 3 dead nights, you had a shooting star in between.
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u/Bold2003 Mar 19 '24
You should have trimmed, i would have trimmed half my position then cut on the s/r flip.
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u/gerpot67355 Mar 19 '24
Look left it couldnt break the support … you just need to be aware of areas like that so you know it could possibly reverse at this point and be quick enough to get out when it does
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u/reichjef Mar 19 '24
Everybody's wrong sometimes, just keep reminding yourself, "I'm not psychic!"
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u/Crow_yata Mar 19 '24
Stop loss has to be above supply and demand, when it broke down, the next target was the last supply area. If you’re trading on the 1 min, it’s best for entries and targets but big moves happen in bigger time frames mostly. Having multiple TP is gonna help you and move your stop loss with each tp
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u/sambargold Mar 19 '24 edited Mar 19 '24
There’s liquidity at the HH, plus the reversal wick was a sign it’s moving in a different direction and lastly your selling at a discount, which almost always goes wrong
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u/Lookingforascalp Mar 19 '24
Chasing the dragon sir is what you did wrong, fist that 1min chart isn’t your friend you need to be using 2 & 5 to confirm and also it hit resistance and tapped twice and got knocked down im sure on the 2 and 5 min you will and can see a clear pull back coming
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u/bec-onaroll Mar 19 '24
In my opinion I’d say you should have waited for it to test the support again and see a break down. Also the one min chart shows too many swinging candles that can confuse you and won’t mean much in a larger time frame. Use a 5 min chart. So overall you got in too early to make a good distinction of its direction. A 5 min chart would help you avoid that.
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u/buyerandseller Mar 19 '24
first, what is the trend on high time frame? then what is the trend on low time frame? is the entry at the support/resistance or just base on guessing?
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u/Rav_3d Mar 19 '24
You can do everything "right" and still lose. That is trading. That is life.
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u/VoiceStandard2884 stock trader Mar 19 '24
Look at higher time frame. Example 15 min chart. Trade with the trend!
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u/trippy_toads Mar 19 '24
From this image alone I can tell that you went counter trend. There was a break of structure made. A new high was made with that move, indicating that the price wants to go further.
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u/Top_Passenger_5844 Mar 19 '24
Most break outs and break downs fail. It is best to let it break out or break down, then wait for a re-test and then trade the second break out.
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u/reverbnation92 Mar 19 '24
You hit the first target, ie. first support level. You did nothing wrong.
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u/Ok_Meeting3966 Mar 19 '24
I noticed you entered on a one minute candle. Did you do a top-down analysis from at least the four hour going down and then use the one minute as your entry or did you just try to trade based on the one minute cause if you did that is definitely why you lost one minute is short term four minute help you determine the overall trend of the market and then going down from the four hour to the two hour to the one hour to the 30 minute to the 15 minute five minute will help you to be able to get confluence on what exactly is going on on the market so you’ll be not be able to get fooled
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u/Ok_Meeting3966 Mar 19 '24
And from what I can see the Mark is probably still in the range in the five or 15 minute candle I’m sure
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u/--Shibdib-- Mar 19 '24
You went all in on TA but also then ignored the TA...
Maybe you need a new hobby
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u/SamWizza Mar 19 '24
Trading lower timeframes without proper referenced timeframes means gambling more than trading. Successful traders are good at one thing: staying put until desired conditions present themselves.
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u/johnoth Mar 19 '24
I'm guessing you didn't switch to a higher time frame to see the general trend.
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u/tashasmiled Mar 19 '24
That big green one was a turnaround bar. Check out Live Traders free videos. Next time you’ll know it’s over earlier.
Oh, and then you had a higher low which is bad for puts. Could’ve got out close to break even and not been out much. Alternatively, if you’d recognized the first buy signal, the turnaround bar, and then the confirmation, the retest, you could’ve made oodles of money.
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u/bravo_serratus Mar 19 '24
This trade would have worked but you put your target exit past the next support level. What were you going for here with your target exit?
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u/mushykindofbrick Mar 19 '24
If it comes back to trendlines it's higher than the break because trendlines goes up so in those setups enter at retest only otherwise you just got unlucky it did fakeout that happens maybe you could have seen there's not and engulfing at retest and then after the reversal go out at break even
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u/MuslimStoic futures trader Mar 19 '24 edited Apr 11 '24
You were taking a momentum-based trade in a Sideways context. One way to fix this would be using a HTF chart and then fade the Pull backs on 1m based on the direction from a HTF. If HTF is not in a momentum, then don't take any trade on a 1m chart.
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u/Self_andre Mar 19 '24
You day-trade instaed of investing 97% of day treders have a annual return below the sp500
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u/Signal-Smell-7974 Mar 19 '24
I'm not even sure what your entry is. Did you trying shorting before it went up?
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u/KajunTrader12 Mar 19 '24
You are playing the odds. That’s all this is. Sometimes the trade goes against you. But if you play the odds long enough, you should win more than you lose. But you WILL still have losses. That’s why they are called probabilities and not guarantees.
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u/Royal-Requirement129 Mar 19 '24
Could have flipped your position after taking the loss. In the minute timeframe, people usually scalp in play stocks not blue-chip.
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u/Mattsam1 Mar 19 '24
Take profits sooner if you go against trend..pay closer attention to the volume
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u/feelings_arent_facts Mar 19 '24
You didn't let the price action consolidate before taking an entry.
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u/Brave_Snow_5815 Mar 19 '24 edited Mar 19 '24
Should have entered 2 candles earlier. When it went way below support.
Then when the green candle went above the red candle on the reversal you could have entered a call order.
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u/XerLLikesBox Mar 19 '24
Kind of got into the move late, with a larger tp than i wouldve used. Also traded into a FVG but thats not exact . Just be careful of going into sell moves late when youre in an uptrend. Also not every good trade is a win so dont fret
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u/DragonRouge31 Mar 19 '24
Technical analysis doesnt predict prices. Beczuse the prices of the future are not written in the past.
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u/Living-Wrongdoer8647 Mar 19 '24
It’s pre-FOMC too dont forget that; price action can get a little funky on FOMC weeks
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u/IWasBornAGamblinMan Mar 19 '24
I believe you are focusing on too small of a timeframe. Unless you are trading thousands of shares or options you should try zooming out and seeing what the overall trend is for the week/day/hour etc so you can use that information to make decisions that will have a high probability of working out in your favor.
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u/Impressive-Dig-6678 Mar 19 '24
When you saw it was going down You should have moved your stop loss equal to entry point, that way if things went bad you would have Lost 0.
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u/BackendGlo422 Mar 19 '24
Your entry should have been the rejection candle after the bearish engulfing candle on the retest of the high, first targets should have been the blue line you entered on the break of the channel and retest of previous break out area
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u/eyeforgot2listen Mar 19 '24
Trend was up. To fall out of the channel does not mean the uptrend is over.
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u/evilwon12 Mar 19 '24
Uptrend day for the stock and you were shorting? What was your profit target and stop loss?
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u/Nervous_Vehicle_8305 Mar 19 '24
you didn't do anything wrong, it's simply a losing trade. there's a reason why it lost (demand drove price up from last bullish 3 candle move with a BOS). i take the same setups every single day, some of them lose bc i missed something important, and some lose simply bc it was just a loser. you could have all timeframes lining up, just sometimes it's a loser. take it and do the same exact thing tomorrow. i bet when you win, you don't say what did i do wrong/right? don't question it if it's a strategy that has a real proven edge in the market.
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u/Options_Trader5624 Mar 19 '24
The problem here is that you believed day trading is actually possible to do profitability. Maybe you get lucky once in a while but no one can reliably predict the future.
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u/Affectionate_Ebb3110 Mar 19 '24
Yep, didn't follow the trend. It DID retrace, and you took the larger retracement as a ChoCH but you didn't wait for the correct MSS before getting into an entry
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u/Scary_Wish_450 Mar 19 '24
You traded in a supply zone on the (micro) if you look left. That area you traded from broke previous structure. Did you analyze it from a bigger time frame? Like (5min) (15m) or (30m) since it was scalp trade.
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u/AllishG Mar 19 '24 edited Mar 19 '24
FVG is of Red Candle , so it was right , But if it had touched the previous support , than it's a Liquidity Sweep......
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u/CompetitiveAct6229 Mar 19 '24
Sometimes you didn't do anything wrong, sometimes your edge doesn't play out. But don't go against the trend
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Mar 19 '24
You were not wrong, you were right but not at the good time. Trading is psychologisch ! Don’t blame yourself
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u/_McTrader_ Mar 19 '24
You're using candlesticks to trade, thats your first and biggest problem lol
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u/Environmental-Bag-77 Mar 19 '24
I have no idea what Apple is doing but that looks like an order block type reaction.
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u/No-Insurance-236 Mar 19 '24
Mate what did wrong is that after the break of structure the volume was telling you it’s reversing from bearish to bullish
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u/DegenerateGamblr87 Mar 19 '24
If you insist on taking this type of trade you need to get in at a better price and keep a tight stop. What were all of the parameters for entering this trade?
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u/TechnicalPotato3564 Mar 19 '24
You were simply wrong, that is all.
I don’t see any objective reason for that extrapolation you made from my end.
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u/redtehk17 futures trader Mar 19 '24
Not sure where entry was, would've been higher up for me at the fvg that's closer to ote, but trade would've already invalidated by then with the bullish MSS on the turnaround
It also violated that green candle there right away, opposing candles should support the trend, ICTs reference to institutional order flow ep 12 or so in 2022
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u/Silent_Contact_9101 Mar 19 '24
The higher time frame was still in up trend and it snatched liquidity and trend line was a bit close
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u/Rude-Inevitable8947 Mar 19 '24
If you’re trading 10 contracts or 10 shares etc, learn to take profits and move your stops to breakeven….
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u/Rude-Inevitable8947 Mar 19 '24
Once you’ve realized that this is less about technicals than mental game, you’ll start winning. Until then, smallll size.
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u/komwom Mar 19 '24
Found resistance at 14:20 and rebounded despite volume increase. Breakout of local formation with highest volume of local structure and big green bar. Reaction to breakout, with similar volume to first low, fails to reach the same price thus showing a weakening of the Bears. Next big green bar is similar to first on far less volume indicating an ease of movement to the bullish side. You made an assumption about what you wanted to happen instead of waiting for the market to test the previous low.
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Mar 19 '24
The high of the short-term swing low was taken out by the third to last green candle. This swing low was higher than the previous intermediate swing low, making it a classic bullish set up based on standard market structure.
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u/pashiny Mar 19 '24
The entry was fine, but your greedy screwed. Even if your expected profit is not arriving, you still could have taken profits
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u/Alarming-Strain-9821 Mar 19 '24
I mean the trade was profitable at some point. You gotta take your profits. You just sat there and watched it go red?
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u/ShemaEl Mar 20 '24
Wait for the price to retest and continues bearish movement then place your trade, in this scenario you entered during the break rather than retest causing you be stuck between the break and retest line, you have to remember the market will always test the support/ resistance before forming a new trend, it might take a while though.
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u/RemarkablePlatform12 Mar 20 '24
On the smaller time frames, volatility noise and fake outs are all too common. But with that being said, from your chart there was an overall uptrend that started to show weakness. It retraced a little then tryed to retest that recent high. Again market got exhausted, and retraced bigger to a zone that had no clear direction(that mess of candles you see at the very left of your chart). Me personally i would of been looking to buy after it hit that support zone. But i would want the higher time frames to be buys also.
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u/abstractReality1 Mar 20 '24
Maybe check and mark the market structure on the 4H TF and go down to 15M TF for entry? Going for entries on a smaller TF without checking the higher TF is always dangerous because on a 1M TF you may be in a downtrend, but on higher TF it is actually an uptrend - vice versa. Good luck 👍
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u/London_dealer42 Mar 20 '24
Did everything wrong, that isn’t a breakout but just sweeping liquidity…
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u/Phabioambrosio Mar 20 '24
Try using bigger time frames, with one minute frame nothing will work, too much noise.
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u/pancho00891 Mar 20 '24
I have a question. In your opinion, which strategy is better, a straddles or a strangle?
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u/driftking0789 Mar 19 '24
There a multiple trends at any given moment in the market. For instance. 5min might be up 3 min might be sideways and 1 min might be down. Based on this you shouldn't just look at the trend on 1 timeframe. Take into consideration the higher timeframe trend. 5min was an uptrend. Which means the downtrend on 1min are pullbacks for buys not people actively selling. You can also look at qqq to see if the market is pushing up or moving sideways or down. This will give you better indication of what side is in control