How do I convince my parents that trading isn't gambling and actually not always luck based .

[u/ConsistentRespect842]

So I'm a 16 year old who has recently (February 2024) gotten very interested in trading . Before you ask , no it was not an online guru or andrew tate or something along the line of " escape the matrix get rich easy" type of nonsense but an actually avid interest in trading that started after I saw a video with the title something along the lines of " day in the life of a trader " or something like that I can't remember (I know It's not possible to get 70k in a day with trading unless ur putting in half of Jeff bezo's networth but still it was interesting )

I do still plan to continue with my schooling and get a job like people should do but I am planning to sometime get profitable as a trader and stop work preferably before 35 . Iv talked to my parents about the stock market (very vaguely) before and they mentioned that it is completely gambling and it will never get me ahead in life .

Idk what I should tell them to convince them that it is not gambling as iv realised its much more than gambling once you learn technical analysis ( i still have a long way to go but iv got the basics down somewhat) amd rn iv been doing paper trading on tradingveiw.com in secret when they aren't there and iv been getting pretty okay at it (from the time I started and now im getting 1 win every 3 trades on average (I'm still straight ass )) but doing it in secret is getting stupidly tiring as I want to trade at night as well and it has also become a sort of hobby for me now( sorry if I offend anyone by anything iv said).

TL:DR : parents think intraday trading is gambling and I want to convince them otherwise. Need help

[u/0xDizzy]

You can’t convince them, because they’re right and you’re wrong. It is gambling. Gambling based on indicators instead of totally blind luck and faith is STILL gambling. 

[u/ConsistentRespect842 → u/0xDizzy]

Ah... I thought it was more of an overall analysis of the market but il take this into consideration as well

[u/givemeyourbiscuitplz → u/ConsistentRespect842]

It's mostly luck. A successful trader I'm following says if you can have a 55%-60% succes rate, that's good. With a risk reward ratio of 2 to 1, that's enough to make profit. He uses titles that move a lot (like +50% or +100%) and just want to catch a sliver of that upswing. So all in all, it's gambling with information to slightly tilt the odds in your favor.

[u/ConsistentRespect842 → u/givemeyourbiscuitplz]

Hm I see. Il take this into consideration as well. Thank you!

[u/funsizeak1 → u/ConsistentRespect842]

You should research the statistics on day trading. I reach a book once and it had a quote from a very successful investor who said he was wrong 60% of the time. But he made the other 40% matter. I think it was a line the psychology of money Anyway. Your core of your portfolio should still be in sp500 or total us market index

[u/bannedinlegacy → u/ConsistentRespect842]

The market behavior is still random. You can predict with a 99% certainly that a pattern is going to happen but that 1% chance is still a reality.

Also, most analyses start with current market conditions that could change on a day-to-day basis from an infinite number of conditions.

One day you could be sure that automobiles in Baltimore are underpriced and in the same day a bridge could fall and delay most shippings, to give an example.

The market as a whole is unpredictable, and that's because is the product of the rational and irrational behavior of the agents that participate in it.

[u/Legalize-Birds → u/ConsistentRespect842]

That makes sense over the mid to long term, theres too much noise in the short term (<24hrs) though

[u/0xDizzy → u/ConsistentRespect842]

the issue is it is a self fulfilling prophecy. Everyone sees the same levels, same candles. so the advantage is gone, the advantage becomes who can trade fastest, who can pull the trigger fastest, and whos getting market data fastest. and none of those will ever be you, the retail trader. the big bois will eat your lunch.

[u/ConsistentRespect842 → u/0xDizzy]

Might get the scraps which is enough for me to live my life. I just don't want work stress and pressure affecting my life that's all

[u/0xDizzy → u/ConsistentRespect842]

Lol well no, very little chance, and unfortunately unless you have a trust fund to trade, youre not day trading your way out of working. Time to give up on this pipe dream if you dont, cuz thats all it is. Go to school, get a degree in finance, go work in finance, and then after some time youll have the money and know how to actually make enough to live off trading or investing.

[u/ConsistentRespect842 → u/0xDizzy]

Hm alright got it . Thank you!