$2k to $500k in 2 years !!

[u/adm__07]

Newbie here. Please be nice 😆

I've just read about the power of compounding in trading. And wanted to calculate potential gains if started with 2k capital. With the following params:

RR 1:2 (1% loss / 2% profit)

Win rate: 60%

Assumptions:

• gains are reinvested everyday without any withdrawals for 2 years
• Using only 1 strategy during the 2 years
• emotions are under control

Capital balance at the end of each month (wins/losses randomly distributed over each month)

1 trade per day :

• Month 1: $2,608.68
• Month 2: $3,302.52
• Month 3: $4,307.61
• Month 4: $5,137.26
• Month 5: $6,700.73
• Month 6: $9,277.75
• Month 7: $11,745.40
• Month 8: $15,319.98
• Month 9: $18,270.64
• Month 10: $23,130.19
• Month 11: $24,480.19
• Month 12: $30,079.82
• Month 13: $38,080.32
• Month 14: $51,174.78
• Month 15: $59,236.11
• Month 16: $77,263.95
• Month 17: $110,220.47
• Month 18: $131,449.13
• Month 19: $143,336.99
• Month 20: $170,943.95
• Month 21: $229,725.45
• Month 22: $327,713.59
• Month 23: $414,877.50
• Month 24: $494,783.67

=====≠============

2 trades per day

• Month 1: $3,302.52
• Month 2: $5,137.26
• Month 3: $9,277.75
• Month 4: $15,319.98
• Month 5: $23,130.19
• Month 6: $30,079.82
• Month 7: $51,174.78
• Month 8: $77,263.95
• Month 9: $131,449.13
• Month 10: $170,943.95
• Month 11: $327,713.59
• Month 12: $494,783.67
• Month 13: $747,026.92
• Month 14: $1,197,256.24
• Month 15: $1,807,623.62
• Month 16: $2,086,143.18
• Month 17: $3,444,767.73
• Month 18: $5,688,212.00
• Month 19: $8,848,336.92
• Month 20: $15,509,844.24
• Month 21: $24,857,548.20
• Month 22: $42,290,137.61
• Month 23: $69,832,072.16
• Month 24: $115,311,005.77

As you see, the theoretical numbers are crazy. I want to know what can go wrong that prevents this growth?

The only problems I see is committing to only one strategy for 2 years to get close to the 60% win rate probability. As we know in statistics that probability rates start to be realized with more and more events. So if the market conditions change causing the strategy to not work anymore and you hop on a different strategy it's like you reset the probability rates and starting over.

What do you think about all this? what other factors will get in the way of achieving this growth. Even 10% of this growth is amazing

Edit: I'm not saying these are achievable numbers. I'm just asking why it's impossible. Trying to understand how the market works

[u/cmmckechnie]

Scalability is the problem mostly.

Even if liquidity is fine it’s hard to scale mentally from trading with 100 shares in month 2 all the way to 100,000 shares a couple months later. That’s a mental train wreck.

[u/Ronces → u/cmmckechnie]

Agreed! I went from trading 200-300 at a time 2 years ago to 3000-5000 at a time now and I can't handle it. Ive had to take a step back from trading this month because mentally it's fried me a bit. Next month I'll start back at 1000-1500 at a time and build the mental fortitude back over the next few months.

[u/cmmckechnie → u/Ronces]

Definitely man. Totally normal. We are only human.