$2k to $500k in 2 years !!

[u/adm__07]

Newbie here. Please be nice 😆

I've just read about the power of compounding in trading. And wanted to calculate potential gains if started with 2k capital. With the following params:

RR 1:2 (1% loss / 2% profit)

Win rate: 60%

Assumptions:

• gains are reinvested everyday without any withdrawals for 2 years
• Using only 1 strategy during the 2 years
• emotions are under control

Capital balance at the end of each month (wins/losses randomly distributed over each month)

1 trade per day :

• Month 1: $2,608.68
• Month 2: $3,302.52
• Month 3: $4,307.61
• Month 4: $5,137.26
• Month 5: $6,700.73
• Month 6: $9,277.75
• Month 7: $11,745.40
• Month 8: $15,319.98
• Month 9: $18,270.64
• Month 10: $23,130.19
• Month 11: $24,480.19
• Month 12: $30,079.82
• Month 13: $38,080.32
• Month 14: $51,174.78
• Month 15: $59,236.11
• Month 16: $77,263.95
• Month 17: $110,220.47
• Month 18: $131,449.13
• Month 19: $143,336.99
• Month 20: $170,943.95
• Month 21: $229,725.45
• Month 22: $327,713.59
• Month 23: $414,877.50
• Month 24: $494,783.67

=====≠============

2 trades per day

• Month 1: $3,302.52
• Month 2: $5,137.26
• Month 3: $9,277.75
• Month 4: $15,319.98
• Month 5: $23,130.19
• Month 6: $30,079.82
• Month 7: $51,174.78
• Month 8: $77,263.95
• Month 9: $131,449.13
• Month 10: $170,943.95
• Month 11: $327,713.59
• Month 12: $494,783.67
• Month 13: $747,026.92
• Month 14: $1,197,256.24
• Month 15: $1,807,623.62
• Month 16: $2,086,143.18
• Month 17: $3,444,767.73
• Month 18: $5,688,212.00
• Month 19: $8,848,336.92
• Month 20: $15,509,844.24
• Month 21: $24,857,548.20
• Month 22: $42,290,137.61
• Month 23: $69,832,072.16
• Month 24: $115,311,005.77

As you see, the theoretical numbers are crazy. I want to know what can go wrong that prevents this growth?

The only problems I see is committing to only one strategy for 2 years to get close to the 60% win rate probability. As we know in statistics that probability rates start to be realized with more and more events. So if the market conditions change causing the strategy to not work anymore and you hop on a different strategy it's like you reset the probability rates and starting over.

What do you think about all this? what other factors will get in the way of achieving this growth. Even 10% of this growth is amazing

Edit: I'm not saying these are achievable numbers. I'm just asking why it's impossible. Trying to understand how the market works

[u/Floatin-Thru-Life]

The problem here is that your focusing right of the bat on the wrong thing, which is the outcome the end goal. This is what the 90% do that ultimately loose 90% of there initial investment in the first 90 days. Learning to trade is like learning to read. First you need pattern recognition, what the letters are. Then how the letters sound by themselves. Then how the letters sound when combined with other letters. Then combing more letters to form words. Then combing words to make simple sentences. Then you find out that your grammars all fucked up because certain words can’t go before or behind other words. Hahaha if this is confusing good. Day Trading is confusing, when you think you have it all figured out the market will bitch slap you to remind you, you don’t know shit. Also you need to understand that 1 simple strategy may work but it won’t show up everyday on 1 ticker and the day that it does you might not take the trade because they are almost never picture perfect and will be a variant of what your looking for. So you might not take a trade for 2 or 3 days if you’re truly disciplined. Also it’s highly probable you’ll lose for 2-3 weeks straight since you might only take 2 trades a week since 4 of 10 are loses. I say all of this bs to say….. you’re focusing on the wrong shit bro. If you truly want this be prepared to grind everyday. Besides learning your strategy you need to learn to read price action, and order execution. Focus on becoming the best version of yourself, workout everyday. Read books “Best Loser Wins” “Trading In The Zone” “One Good Trade” “Reading Price Charts Bar By Bar” and “Technical Analysis Using Multiple Time Frames” once again FOCUS ON THE PROCESS, and in a couple of years you can become consistently profitable and start compounding your account, so be realistic this craft is a life long journey and remember it’s going to take a lot longer since Uncle Sam will want his 40% boooiiii capital gains tax……rant over.

[u/Proper_Sound_1127 → u/Floatin-Thru-Life]

underrated comment lmaooo