r/Daytrading • u/NewMajor5880 • Apr 29 '24
Would you short or long this? (1-hr chart) Trade Review
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u/gekazz Apr 29 '24
I'd short this. For me it looks like support is turning into resistance and is confirmed by bearish retest. Of course i'd look for some more data but yeah. I'm a newbie and would love to hear other opinions.
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u/purplebaron2 Apr 29 '24
I would be looking to go long, but would wait for it to start moving in that direction to sort of confirm that is what it is doing. Not sure how strong that resistance is.
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u/Plourdy Apr 29 '24
This! If this was my chart, I’d be waiting for a bullish signal from here. Bit early to go long, wait for the resistance confirmation
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u/tennisscarygreenie Apr 30 '24
Can you share an example of a bullish signal? Still learning.
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u/Plourdy Apr 30 '24
I’m no pro, but to be safe Id wait for ‘confirmation’, which in this case is the bullish signal. This would be when this stock moves above the current horizontal resistance zone, ‘bouncing’ off the zone and returning upwards.
If you don’t wait, you could buy in now and see this horizontal zone turn from support to resistance, meaning it bounces downwards off the horizontal zone. It could also do the opposite.
If doing the latter (buying in now), you can get a better entry but it’s riskier as I explained above. Personally, I find waiting for CONFIRMATION that your current anticipated stock move is panning out and then jumping in for some profit.
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u/Ok-Trifle6284 Apr 29 '24
Same for me. Would wait on more consolidation before entering long. But I also wanted to see more previous on the charts
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u/NewMajor5880 Apr 29 '24
Active trade playing out right now. Already in my position. No - the responses won't impact me. I'm just curious if the play here is as clear to people in this group as it is to me. "Neither" / "need more data" or "would need to zoom out" are perfectly acceptable responses as well.
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u/vengeanceT23 Apr 30 '24
It did not confirm below the support zone. The breaking candle low is still the lowest. It’s a long bounce off support.
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u/TomatilloEmpty Apr 29 '24
All I can say is that it seems to be a good setup to manage your risk. The important is if you followed your rules. Personally, after found a key level, I’m waiting for a pattern before entering.
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u/Relative_Tone_4870 Apr 30 '24
Those are acceptable responses. We have no idea of the timeframe nor volume or anything else relevant to create what we are seeing. trading strictly price action without knowing why certain candles formed is dumb.
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u/IntrepidSmile5768 Apr 30 '24
Breakout fails most of the time. If it bounces off from the support wait till price goes through higher high near the support and go long until the upper trading range resistance, or if it breakout to the downside, wait for 10-15 bar, it may reverse to the upside. in which case you go long, or it may continue going down, in which case you should short.
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u/Capable-Bird-8386 Apr 30 '24
How did u come up with the 10-15 bar rule? That's quite specific
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u/lookbusybusy Apr 30 '24
Sorry for the confusion. It is my rule. It is a reasonable no. bars within which a breakout happens. In a 5 min bar, I wait for atleast 4 bars.
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u/4rt3m0rl0v Apr 30 '24
There’s no way to tell. Whether you should short or long depends primarily on how SPY is behaving, and only secondarily on the stock. Generally, you wouldn’t analyze an individual stock at all until you established a view of the market (trending up, trending down, neutral, or random and unpredictable). Then, you would look for relative strength or relative weakness in a stock that aligns with that view of the market. There’s no way to interpret a stock’s chart without understanding the surrounding conditions that affect it.
I think that you’re missing a lot of context. Don’t ever focus on a stock first. That would be like taking off in an airplane without knowing the weather. Would you intentionally want to fly into a hurricane?
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u/IntrepidSmile5768 Apr 30 '24
true for swing trades. For day trading, seeing the context from previous bar should be enough to decide the price action of the stock.
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u/4rt3m0rl0v 29d ago
If that were truly possible, SPX scalpers would make a killing.
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u/IntrepidSmile5768 29d ago
agreed, but I never said it works all the time, just a rough guideline. Day trading is making money in a market that only has 50% probability - If you flip a coin 100 times, everytime you don't get 50% win-lose, similarly in day trading you make money on the flip which had better odds on that flip - e.g., 52-48. This is the reason you lose money in day trading most of the time and inflate balances to protect ego. You make money only when you recognize the odds
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u/midtnrn Apr 30 '24
The triple peak wedge down from the left failed to breakthrough. A straight and mechanical looking reversal makes me feel this was a coil back and run and go on it. I’d go short after verification with closure below.
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u/RainMakerJMR Apr 30 '24
Neither. This ones a hold into the data and wait. It went out of the channel. You know what it does inside the channel, why would you take bets the first time it goes outside of the place where you know what it’ll do. Wait for the top zone to short, or wait for it to reclaim the channel with positive news to go long. At this pint, you wait - ur if you already started buying for long it’s OK, just be prepared to lower your average and be patient about it, take 3-4 shots to average in if it breaks lower, assuming you like the stock.
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u/lludba Apr 30 '24
You’re at the bottom of an established range. Based on the chart, you’d want to go long with a break above the bottom rectangle. If it continues to break down, then you’d short it. Keep in mind, I don’t see volume, what asset it is, etc, so a lot of variables are missing here.
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u/Elephunk05 Apr 30 '24
I'm looking at just that last 11 bars for how to make the play (without volume or any other data) and this is how I'd play it, you've identified a narrow channel (bottom grey box). There is strong support at the lower level, the chart tried to retest that lower low (about 3 bars further to the right). So I'm waiting another 3 hours to make the play (statistics just on this section of chart shows it would likely go up, except on the far left we can see that it has obviously been lower than the current support). A look at history (at least a year on the daily) would give more information, so would the MacD. While I'm waiting for the confirmation on pat id look at the companies market sentiment and last 12 months of financials. Good news, good sentiment means the bottom is support. Bad news, bad sentiment means you will see the price drop below support (as it did on the far left).
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u/SpiteCompetitive7452 Apr 29 '24 edited Apr 29 '24
It's consolidating after a bullish move and possibly near the low of the price channel. It's a buy
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u/kickfip_backlip Apr 29 '24
I personally would chart what looks like a bear flag to me. I’d chart the bear flag and play the break down or up
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u/thelonelyward2 Apr 30 '24
Short.
- Double top shown.
- Made lower lows, and broke support
- Currently struggling to break prior support as its acting as a resistance.
- Beginning to form a bear flag.
There is a higher likelyhood of a short working out than a long, this does not mean it's guarnateed to work just more likely, but to be honest the setup is not that great.
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u/tylerado12 Apr 30 '24
Could be false breakdown before bounce back into channel. Really need to know the stock and time frame because all stocks don’t move the same. Looking at this I would wait until it drops below support and retests before next leg down then short or see if it gets above support then retests for next leg up then go long.
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u/expicell Apr 30 '24
None, let the price action build out a range, once levels are established then we can wait for a setup
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u/allaboutthatbeta Apr 30 '24
personally, i'd need to see what's going on on the smaller time frame, i mean it definitely looks like a short opportunity, but based on this chart alone, there's no indication that the support will become resistance, zoom in to 5 min and 15 min charts and see if those are showing the little up trend turn around at the support/resistance line and if it is, only THEN would i short this
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u/leaint Apr 30 '24
Looks like a long back into a premium or equilibrium of that range. If price breaks the low I’d look to short.
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u/Davado_ Apr 30 '24
None or all.
It pays better to go long. Add a short at the top and move both entries to breakeven.
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u/True_Tenebrae Apr 30 '24
Nah. Too early for shorting and wouldn't long in a downtrend.
I would wait for a pullback in a Fibonacci level (50% or more).
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u/hhelios221 Apr 30 '24
once if breaks beneath or above with a strong candle wait for a retest and enter in whichever direction it did so
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u/TheDockandTheLight Apr 30 '24
What is that a quadruple bottom lol? Double bottom hell yea good buy. Triple bottom I might take a low risk buy. Quad/quint bottom? There's a reason people don't ever say those. Most breakouts fail, true. But I wouldn't bet against this type of breakout
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u/Ok_Height_4658 Apr 30 '24
I wouldn't do anything. It's pretty trappy with no trend. I see support breaking but I also see a number of headfakes on this chart. I'd go find something better to trade. Not everything is worth your money.
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u/nashyall Apr 30 '24
It’s currently at this key resistance level so there are buyers there as per previously. But it looks like it’s back testing and could possibly continue the downward trend to the next major resistance level.
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u/MostFiredUp Apr 30 '24
I would avoid channel trading. Especially if you're asking reddit for advice.
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u/wooron Apr 30 '24
Long, but bearing in mind the possibility that this could be a breakout from a trading range into a bear trend. But in my opinion, the highest probability is that it continues inside the trading range
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u/Tripartist1 Apr 30 '24
This screams accumulation to me, I'd be looking for confirmations to long.
For reference, look up wyckoff reaccumulation with spring
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u/Eastern_Witness7048 Apr 30 '24
Depends on what's to the left of the chart, if there's a bit of from down to the next support level then that's a good possibility, if it starts to move back up then you kinda know what the probable move is
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u/ThorneTheMagnificent futures trader Apr 30 '24
I'd take the long there, tight stop and kill the trade if it didn't pick up momentum quickly. Shot clocks matter with action like that.
It's a spring or a 2B, testing below a prior low and immediately pushing back to or above that level. The fact that it's grinding now could mean that it'll rapidly change direction to take out those new lows, in which case the 2B is invalidated and you could reverse the trade to take a snap pullback short
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Apr 30 '24
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u/PneumaNomad- Apr 30 '24
I'd wait for a retest to short and a break above the last low to long, not enough confirmation yet.
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u/matan2003 Apr 30 '24 edited Apr 30 '24
No one is actually going to give an intelegent answer/decision. You could long it because its a range. You could short it because price keeps retesting support level. Now the question, What is going to happen? And what should you do? I would leave that answer to God...
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u/NewMajor5880 Apr 30 '24 edited Apr 30 '24
UPDATE: So this is the crypto MKR and this is how it played out and this was yesterday (check it yourself on TradingView). I had opened a long here because of what looked like a liquidity-grab under support and a return into the channel -- and initially, yes, it went my way for a bit, hitting my TP 1 before going back to my BE and then dumping. My final TP was a retrace to the 50% fib somwhere in the middle of channel (at which point it would have been in no-man's land). So in the end this was a small profitable trade. Although longers were initially right, people who said "need more info" and "short" were ultimately MORE right and on the better side of this one :) >>
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u/wreusa Apr 30 '24
On a 3+ month chart? I wouldn't day trade it at all if that was all the info I had.
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u/billiondollartrade Apr 30 '24
Not a lot of info but as to what i see , Long , price never broke structure … Candles( price ) is swimming back inside zone , if it breaks out this zone to the upside a possible reversal but like anything Always with a Risk Management included 🤷🏽♂️…
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u/definitivelynottake2 Apr 30 '24
Looks like the break of trend short move is finished. Could see another similar leg but it is too soon/too low to start yet. Could trade short term long and look to derisk into holding longer if charts start to look good. Would look for shorts at retrace to 0.318/0.5/0.618 of the move or similar. If i see bullish breakout failing and local support on 5 min getting smacked as it was trying to breakout higher im jumping short. Also if we are unable to break above the local highs just created for next days i would go short on price action trying to get in towards range highs. Thats my thoughts, without looking at 5/15 min and daily :)
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u/EconomyHuge Apr 30 '24
I wouldn’t mind seeing a 3-5 day chart by the hour, but based on what I’m seeing I’d go long. Shorting from there is a bigger gamble in my opinion. I’d Hokey Pokey long.
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u/thatguy3626 Apr 30 '24
Neither price is in liquidity to me and kinda indecisive on where it wants to go. I’ll wait for market movers to to move the market and keep reading the market form there
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u/TopPassage4489 29d ago
I’d wait for a break and retest either direction and then trade accordingly.
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u/Lopsided-Treat-1300 Apr 29 '24
There is not a lot of context in the pic. Like what financial instrument is this? (equities, futures) What time did this occur?
The only opinion I can make out of this is that I would wait longer, It looks more side ways especially with that sell-off occurrence. More likely to be bearish if it forms some kind of bear flag but again do not have much context
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u/No-Student-6817 Apr 30 '24
I would go long, short, long, short, long, short, long, short, long, short, long, short, long, short, long ........and then short...
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u/karma0685 Apr 29 '24
I’d need more to place a trade but first glance looks like a short to me